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Gallup Daily: McCain Moves Ahead, 48% to 45%
Gallup ^

Posted on 09/07/2008 10:46:42 AM PDT by sunmars

PRINCETON, NJ -- The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update shows John McCain moving ahead of Barack Obama, 48% to 45%, when registered voters are asked for whom they would vote if the presidential election were held today.

(Excerpt) Read more at gallup.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2008polls; bounce; electionpresident; gallup; mccain; mccainpalin
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PRINCETON, NJ -- The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update shows John McCain moving ahead of Barack Obama, 48% to 45%, when registered voters are asked for whom they would vote if the presidential election were held today.

These results are based on Sept. 4-6 interviewing, and include two full days of polling after the conclusion of the Republican National Convention last Thursday night. McCain has outpolled Obama on both Friday and Saturday, and is receiving a convention bounce just as Obama did last week.

Tomorrow's report will be the first in which all interviews were conducted after the conclusion of the convention. Gallup measures convention bounces by comparing candidate support in the last poll done entirely before a party's presidential nominating convention begins with the first polling conducted entirely after its conclusion.

McCain's 48% share of the vote ties for his largest since Gallup tracking began in early March. He registered the same level of support in early May. This is also McCain's largest advantage over Obama since early May, when he led by as much as six percentage points. Obama has led McCain for most of the campaign, and for nearly all of the time since clinching the Democratic nomination in early June.

Considering its Gallup, McCain must be way way ahead.

1 posted on 09/07/2008 10:46:46 AM PDT by sunmars
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To: sunmars

McCain gets a good bounce after just 3 days,its going to be a big bounce because it took 6 days for Bambi to get his.

Fox is reporting that McCain/Palin will get a “significant” bounce in the polls post-convention.


2 posted on 09/07/2008 10:49:41 AM PDT by sunmars
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To: sunmars; LadyNavyVet

Either of you know if there is a link to Gallup internal #’s? This one has KPI but no breakdown of who the people called were, on any of them.


3 posted on 09/07/2008 10:51:06 AM PDT by IllumiNaughtyByNature (OBAMA: He was a flop before he became a flipper.)
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To: sunmars

Arise conservatives.......let’s get all our candidates elected.


4 posted on 09/07/2008 10:52:12 AM PDT by lookout88 (Combat search and rescue officer's dad.)
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To: sunmars

I’m guessing McCain up by 6 points when its all said and done. The RNC was a huge success.


5 posted on 09/07/2008 10:53:36 AM PDT by NoobRep
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To: sunmars

for that bounce, McCains numbers were huge last night, must have been at least +10


6 posted on 09/07/2008 10:53:43 AM PDT by sunmars
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To: sunmars
From now to November 4th the only thing Obama is going to see is the view from behind this car...


7 posted on 09/07/2008 10:55:20 AM PDT by avacado
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To: sunmars

I wish Sarah was at the top of the ticket. Did you see McCain on Face the Nation? The question is, can this trend continue in spite of McCain?


8 posted on 09/07/2008 10:55:24 AM PDT by rushmom (l)
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To: rushmom

compared to Obama on the other programme, McCain came out well, Obama screwed it up. Which one do you think they’ll remember.


9 posted on 09/07/2008 10:56:32 AM PDT by sunmars
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To: sunmars

the lefty libbies are not gonna like this


10 posted on 09/07/2008 10:56:32 AM PDT by quintr
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To: quintr

Tuesday Polls will by up by 8.


11 posted on 09/07/2008 10:58:24 AM PDT by scooby321
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To: sunmars

I’m more excited than I have been in a long time. I hope this carries through to the end.


12 posted on 09/07/2008 10:59:21 AM PDT by Ravi
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To: sunmars

Looks like Barry’s dead cat didn’t bounce very high or very long.


13 posted on 09/07/2008 11:00:50 AM PDT by Bubba_Leroy (DNC = Do Nothing Congress)
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To: sunmars

Ditto... Obama was a disaster.

In one sitdowm Obama said:

I really wanted to join military (LIE)

I take back that Saddleback abortion answer (BAD)

I may not roll back Bush tax cuts (FLIP FLOP)

I am a Muslim!!! (DISASTER)


14 posted on 09/07/2008 11:01:22 AM PDT by nhwingut
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To: Ravi

This is very good news and it cements the notion that McCain has seized the momentum from Obama. However, the debates still loom and it will be interesting to see how Palin does on the stump and with the media without prepared notes.


15 posted on 09/07/2008 11:02:35 AM PDT by WillT
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To: rushmom

All I know is I gotta vote for Sarah. I’ll just try to concentrate on that.


16 posted on 09/07/2008 11:02:46 AM PDT by rushmom (l)
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To: nhwingut
I am a Muslim!!! (DISASTER)

Did he actually say or imply this?

17 posted on 09/07/2008 11:03:49 AM PDT by CatOwner
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To: rushmom

Palin secures the base, freeing McCain to go after the middle, it’s how election politics work.


18 posted on 09/07/2008 11:05:21 AM PDT by Truthsearcher
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To: rushmom
I wish Sarah was at the top of the ticket.

Hopefully McCain will decide to only run for one term. Then in 2012, it will be Sarah Palin vs. Hillary Clinton.

If Palin can thump Hillary in a Reagan v. Mondale type landslide, then it should finally drive a stake through the heart of the Hillarybeast.

19 posted on 09/07/2008 11:06:39 AM PDT by Bubba_Leroy (DNC = Do Nothing Congress)
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To: sunmars

And this is among registered voters——not likely voters.

Good news indeed.


20 posted on 09/07/2008 11:07:19 AM PDT by wolf24 ("It's always easy to rally the stupid.")
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To: Bubba_Leroy

Every now and then, dead cats don’t bounce.

And this dead cat only went “splat”.


21 posted on 09/07/2008 11:10:32 AM PDT by Yanni.Znaio (On the Palin smears: "Let he who is without stones cast the first sin.")
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To: Truthsearcher
Palin secures the base, freeing McCain to go after the middle, it’s how election politics work.

And extremely difficult to achieve. Kudos to them. Most fun is Obama having to run against our VP. You go John.

22 posted on 09/07/2008 11:11:01 AM PDT by Hattie
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To: Yanni.Znaio

when was the last time, that the republicans got a bigger bounce out of the conventions and were ahead after them, i sure as shit don’t remember it.

The DNC picked a lame horse.


23 posted on 09/07/2008 11:12:47 AM PDT by sunmars
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To: sunmars

Folks,

Hold your horses here.

This poll shows only REGISTERED voters. A very inaccurate way of gauging voter sentiment. LIKELY voters are the more accurate estimate.

Secondly, Let’s not forget that the popular vote counts for little. It is the ELECTORAL VOTE that counts as the year 2000 election has shown us.

I’m sad to inform you that McCain is still BEHIND in the electoral votes and that’s what counts.

More work needs to be done.


24 posted on 09/07/2008 11:14:47 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: sunmars

The bounce hasn’t fully hit yet, because it’s event happens / which is followed by poll / which is followed by compile statistics / which is followed by release results.

Give it till Tuesday or so.

You think they’re going crazy now?

Better grab the straps, it’s gonna be a bumpy ride.


25 posted on 09/07/2008 11:16:35 AM PDT by Yanni.Znaio (On the Palin smears: "Let he who is without stones cast the first sin.")
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To: SeekAndFind

and thats only because they are not doing any polls on those until the bump settles after conventions, but then i expect there will be a massive shift, somethings happening out there, i can feel it.

Maybe we just needed to put something there to show Bambi as the weasel he is and it looks like its happening.


26 posted on 09/07/2008 11:17:07 AM PDT by sunmars
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To: SeekAndFind
“More work needs to be done.”

Strongly agreed!

Electoral is what matters! The work has just begun folks!

This is what you call a good start.

Things can turn on a dime.

Do NOT get complacent.

We all need to do our part, and keep it up right up to election day, because the dems are going to pull out all the stops.

27 posted on 09/07/2008 11:20:39 AM PDT by Names Ash Housewares
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To: sunmars

Sucks to be Obama.

I heard that McCain out drew viewers with his speech thurs.

Fight! Stand up! Stand up and fight!


28 posted on 09/07/2008 11:22:28 AM PDT by mylife (The Roar Of the Masses Could Be Farts)
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To: Yanni.Znaio

29 posted on 09/07/2008 11:26:14 AM PDT by mylife (The Roar Of the Masses Could Be Farts)
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To: SeekAndFind

“This poll shows only REGISTERED voters. A very inaccurate way of gauging voter sentiment. LIKELY voters are the more accurate estimate.”

Absolutely, positively true. The thing that is fascinating thought is that this is a weekend poll and repubs typically poll horribly during the weekend.

“Secondly, Let’s not forget that the popular vote counts for little. It is the ELECTORAL VOTE that counts as the year 2000 election has shown us.”

This is also true. However, the national poll is quite different for the Presidential race. I recall reading that if the difference is something greater than 2% on election night and that leader has over 50%, it is almost statistically impossible for the person leading the race to lose due to the Electoral College. It’s kind of like a rising tide lifting all ships.

Of course, the above is based on statistics...there would still be the small chance that he could lose the EC.


30 posted on 09/07/2008 11:28:12 AM PDT by edh (I need a better tagline)
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To: sunmars
A poll like Gallup with movement such as this gets serious respect at Intrade.


No Graph Available!

31 posted on 09/07/2008 11:29:46 AM PDT by Plutarch
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To: sunmars

Stand up!
Stand up!
Stand up and fight!

Nothing is inevitable here.
We’re Americans, and we never give up.
We never quit.
We never hide from history. We make history.


32 posted on 09/07/2008 11:35:38 AM PDT by ari-freedom (We never hide from history. We make history!)
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To: lookout88
Arise conservatives.......let’s get all our candidates elected.

Yes, and make them sign in blood that they will do our bidding, that is, putting country first, and water-board them if they don't.

33 posted on 09/07/2008 11:38:58 AM PDT by UpInArms (no failure, no success, only slavery)
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To: Names Ash Housewares
Things can turn on a dime.

Especially with half the media making it their mission to bring down Palin. I heard 30 Democrat lawyers went off to Alaska to find dirt, and a crew of New York Times reporters have done the same thing. They're going to look for anything they can find, then blow it hugely out of proportion.

In the meantime, Biden gets to skate. Who's questioning him? Who's looking into his background? I hope the Republicans don't just play defensive. I hope they go on the offensive, on both Biden and Obama.

34 posted on 09/07/2008 11:41:54 AM PDT by Cinnamontea
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To: rushmom

Was he that bad?


35 posted on 09/07/2008 11:43:00 AM PDT by NYC Republican (Infuriate the MSM- vote for Palin/McCain)
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To: avacado

Now Nobama has a rear view like his islamo brethren.

36 posted on 09/07/2008 11:44:13 AM PDT by DogBarkTree (That sharp pain to the LibRat's groin is called the Palin Effect.)
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To: edh

Don’t forget Bush won electoral, Gore won popular vote.


37 posted on 09/07/2008 11:45:07 AM PDT by Hattie
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To: sunmars

Wait till after the debates when Obambi and Plugs are taken to the woodshed. If MacCain/Palin are this far ahead with registered voters now, we could see a blowout.


38 posted on 09/07/2008 12:00:18 PM PDT by FastCoyote (I am intolerant of the intolerable.)
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To: Hattie

Yes and Bush won electoral and popular against Kerry, something i was genuinely surprised about.


39 posted on 09/07/2008 12:02:57 PM PDT by sunmars
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To: DogBarkTree

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LYc7QsWLhrA

This is Joe Pesce and Obama - very funny.

Pass it on, no kids.


40 posted on 09/07/2008 12:03:23 PM PDT by Titus-Maximus (Biden is to BS what Stonehenge is to rocks)
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To: FastCoyote

I don’t care what anyone says, the Bradley effect is real, it happened in all the primaries against Hillary, Bambi polled between 3% to 5% less than he was supposed to and it will be the same in the GE.


41 posted on 09/07/2008 12:04:23 PM PDT by sunmars
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To: sunmars

PTL


42 posted on 09/07/2008 12:04:56 PM PDT by kanawa (It's Palin on the breakaway...She shoots....She Scorrrrres!!!)
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To: SeekAndFind
I’m sad to inform you that McCain is still BEHIND in the electoral votes and that’s what counts.

Can you give me a link to the post-convention state polls that demonstrate this?

Every electoral total poll that I have seen is backwards looking by a sizable amount depending upon how recent each state's poll is. They tell you how things were not necessarily how thing are. They are not going to measure dramatic short term moves. Give the electoral total type polls another couple of weeks for the latest events to work there way into the results.

Looking at your recent posting history -- are you a sleeper troll?

43 posted on 09/07/2008 12:16:21 PM PDT by Chesterbelloc
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To: Chesterbelloc
Very good observations.

McCain and Obama were pretty much tied in the EC heading into the conventions. All signs are that McCain improved his standing more than Obambi did.

It will just take a few weeks for the state polls to catch up to that reality.

44 posted on 09/07/2008 12:52:04 PM PDT by comebacknewt
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To: comebacknewt

I just took a look at the RealClearPolitics electoral map and they show Obama up 273 to 265. This poll shows Obama taking Colorado and its 9 electoral votes by a 0.4% margin. Note that this Colorado poll is based on polling done between 8/11 and 8/26.

If Colorado has moved just 0.5% in McCain’s direction in the last week then McCain would be ahead 274 to 264.


45 posted on 09/07/2008 1:05:32 PM PDT by Chesterbelloc
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To: sunmars

“...when was the last time, that the republicans got a bigger bounce out of the conventions and were ahead after them...”

2000 and 2004


46 posted on 09/07/2008 1:18:35 PM PDT by LadyNavyVet
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To: Chesterbelloc
Looking at your recent posting history -- are you a sleeper troll?

Define what a troll is.

Is someone who is trying to put a dose of reality into a discussion a troll ?

And oh yeah, what recent posting history qualifies me as a troll ? Huh ?
47 posted on 09/07/2008 1:24:52 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: rushmom
All I know is I gotta vote for Sarah. I’ll just try to concentrate on that

That is a good start, but only a start. You need to convince others to vote for Sarah. The GOP needs volunteers to match the GOTV effort of the Obama supporters.

You also need to rev up efforts to get Republican U.S. Senators and Representatives elected. And we need to make a real push to get Republicans elected to state and local offices.
48 posted on 09/07/2008 1:27:14 PM PDT by goldfinch
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To: Titus-Maximus

That Vid is great! Thanks for the link.


49 posted on 09/07/2008 1:45:20 PM PDT by eyedigress
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To: CatOwner

“I am a Muslim!!! (DISASTER) - Did he actually say or imply this?”

There are several threads about his statement to Stephanopolous this morning, “my Muslim faith,” which Stephie helped to correct.


50 posted on 09/07/2008 1:49:16 PM PDT by EDINVA
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