Skip to comments.Gallup Daily: McCain Moves Ahead, 48% to 45%
Posted on 09/07/2008 10:46:42 AM PDT by sunmars
PRINCETON, NJ -- The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update shows John McCain moving ahead of Barack Obama, 48% to 45%, when registered voters are asked for whom they would vote if the presidential election were held today.
(Excerpt) Read more at gallup.com ...
These results are based on Sept. 4-6 interviewing, and include two full days of polling after the conclusion of the Republican National Convention last Thursday night. McCain has outpolled Obama on both Friday and Saturday, and is receiving a convention bounce just as Obama did last week.
Tomorrow's report will be the first in which all interviews were conducted after the conclusion of the convention. Gallup measures convention bounces by comparing candidate support in the last poll done entirely before a party's presidential nominating convention begins with the first polling conducted entirely after its conclusion.
McCain's 48% share of the vote ties for his largest since Gallup tracking began in early March. He registered the same level of support in early May. This is also McCain's largest advantage over Obama since early May, when he led by as much as six percentage points. Obama has led McCain for most of the campaign, and for nearly all of the time since clinching the Democratic nomination in early June.
Considering its Gallup, McCain must be way way ahead.
McCain gets a good bounce after just 3 days,its going to be a big bounce because it took 6 days for Bambi to get his.
Fox is reporting that McCain/Palin will get a significant bounce in the polls post-convention.
Either of you know if there is a link to Gallup internal #’s? This one has KPI but no breakdown of who the people called were, on any of them.
Arise conservatives.......let’s get all our candidates elected.
I’m guessing McCain up by 6 points when its all said and done. The RNC was a huge success.
for that bounce, McCains numbers were huge last night, must have been at least +10
I wish Sarah was at the top of the ticket. Did you see McCain on Face the Nation? The question is, can this trend continue in spite of McCain?
compared to Obama on the other programme, McCain came out well, Obama screwed it up. Which one do you think they’ll remember.
the lefty libbies are not gonna like this
Tuesday Polls will by up by 8.
I’m more excited than I have been in a long time. I hope this carries through to the end.
Looks like Barry’s dead cat didn’t bounce very high or very long.
Ditto... Obama was a disaster.
In one sitdowm Obama said:
I really wanted to join military (LIE)
I take back that Saddleback abortion answer (BAD)
I may not roll back Bush tax cuts (FLIP FLOP)
I am a Muslim!!! (DISASTER)
This is very good news and it cements the notion that McCain has seized the momentum from Obama. However, the debates still loom and it will be interesting to see how Palin does on the stump and with the media without prepared notes.
All I know is I gotta vote for Sarah. I’ll just try to concentrate on that.
Did he actually say or imply this?
Palin secures the base, freeing McCain to go after the middle, it’s how election politics work.
Hopefully McCain will decide to only run for one term. Then in 2012, it will be Sarah Palin vs. Hillary Clinton.
If Palin can thump Hillary in a Reagan v. Mondale type landslide, then it should finally drive a stake through the heart of the Hillarybeast.
Every now and then, dead cats don’t bounce.
And this dead cat only went “splat”.
And extremely difficult to achieve. Kudos to them. Most fun is Obama having to run against our VP. You go John.
when was the last time, that the republicans got a bigger bounce out of the conventions and were ahead after them, i sure as shit dont remember it.
The DNC picked a lame horse.
Hold your horses here.
This poll shows only REGISTERED voters. A very inaccurate way of gauging voter sentiment. LIKELY voters are the more accurate estimate.
Secondly, Let’s not forget that the popular vote counts for little. It is the ELECTORAL VOTE that counts as the year 2000 election has shown us.
I’m sad to inform you that McCain is still BEHIND in the electoral votes and that’s what counts.
More work needs to be done.
The bounce hasn’t fully hit yet, because it’s event happens / which is followed by poll / which is followed by compile statistics / which is followed by release results.
Give it till Tuesday or so.
You think they’re going crazy now?
Better grab the straps, it’s gonna be a bumpy ride.
and thats only because they are not doing any polls on those until the bump settles after conventions, but then i expect there will be a massive shift, somethings happening out there, i can feel it.
Maybe we just needed to put something there to show Bambi as the weasel he is and it looks like its happening.
Electoral is what matters! The work has just begun folks!
This is what you call a good start.
Things can turn on a dime.
Do NOT get complacent.
We all need to do our part, and keep it up right up to election day, because the dems are going to pull out all the stops.
Sucks to be Obama.
I heard that McCain out drew viewers with his speech thurs.
Fight! Stand up! Stand up and fight!
“This poll shows only REGISTERED voters. A very inaccurate way of gauging voter sentiment. LIKELY voters are the more accurate estimate.”
Absolutely, positively true. The thing that is fascinating thought is that this is a weekend poll and repubs typically poll horribly during the weekend.
“Secondly, Lets not forget that the popular vote counts for little. It is the ELECTORAL VOTE that counts as the year 2000 election has shown us.”
This is also true. However, the national poll is quite different for the Presidential race. I recall reading that if the difference is something greater than 2% on election night and that leader has over 50%, it is almost statistically impossible for the person leading the race to lose due to the Electoral College. It’s kind of like a rising tide lifting all ships.
Of course, the above is based on statistics...there would still be the small chance that he could lose the EC.
Stand up and fight!
Nothing is inevitable here.
We’re Americans, and we never give up.
We never quit.
We never hide from history. We make history.
Yes, and make them sign in blood that they will do our bidding, that is, putting country first, and water-board them if they don't.
Especially with half the media making it their mission to bring down Palin. I heard 30 Democrat lawyers went off to Alaska to find dirt, and a crew of New York Times reporters have done the same thing. They're going to look for anything they can find, then blow it hugely out of proportion.
In the meantime, Biden gets to skate. Who's questioning him? Who's looking into his background? I hope the Republicans don't just play defensive. I hope they go on the offensive, on both Biden and Obama.
Was he that bad?
Now Nobama has a rear view like his islamo brethren.
Don’t forget Bush won electoral, Gore won popular vote.
Wait till after the debates when Obambi and Plugs are taken to the woodshed. If MacCain/Palin are this far ahead with registered voters now, we could see a blowout.
Yes and Bush won electoral and popular against Kerry, something i was genuinely surprised about.
This is Joe Pesce and Obama - very funny.
Pass it on, no kids.
I don’t care what anyone says, the Bradley effect is real, it happened in all the primaries against Hillary, Bambi polled between 3% to 5% less than he was supposed to and it will be the same in the GE.
Can you give me a link to the post-convention state polls that demonstrate this?
Every electoral total poll that I have seen is backwards looking by a sizable amount depending upon how recent each state's poll is. They tell you how things were not necessarily how thing are. They are not going to measure dramatic short term moves. Give the electoral total type polls another couple of weeks for the latest events to work there way into the results.
Looking at your recent posting history -- are you a sleeper troll?
McCain and Obama were pretty much tied in the EC heading into the conventions. All signs are that McCain improved his standing more than Obambi did.
It will just take a few weeks for the state polls to catch up to that reality.
I just took a look at the RealClearPolitics electoral map and they show Obama up 273 to 265. This poll shows Obama taking Colorado and its 9 electoral votes by a 0.4% margin. Note that this Colorado poll is based on polling done between 8/11 and 8/26.
If Colorado has moved just 0.5% in McCain’s direction in the last week then McCain would be ahead 274 to 264.
“...when was the last time, that the republicans got a bigger bounce out of the conventions and were ahead after them...”
2000 and 2004
That Vid is great! Thanks for the link.
“I am a Muslim!!! (DISASTER) - Did he actually say or imply this?”
There are several threads about his statement to Stephanopolous this morning, “my Muslim faith,” which Stephie helped to correct.