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Gallup/Zogby on McCain/Palin
Constitution Club ^ | Sunday, September 07, 2008 | The Hairy Beast

Posted on 09/07/2008 2:30:18 PM PDT by Mongeaux

The Beast’s predictions from Friday of a dead heat in the RCP.com average and +2 McCain by Wednesday are looking pretty feasible. The race has shrunk to +.08 Obama in overall polls at RCP.com, which is a 6 point shift in as many days. Expect it to continue on this way a little more as McCain’s convention sleigh coasts to a stop at the bottom of the hill.

On Gallup (McCain +3): This is the most, but not all of convention bounce - expect it to maybe even tick up a point or two then drop back down somewhat.

By the way, the Gallup poll which has McCain/Palin (damn that feels good) up by three was based on a HUGE SAMPLE. From Gallup:

The general-election results are based on combined data from Sep. 4-6, 2008. For results based on this sample of 2,765 registered voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points.
One-third of which was polled on Thursday before McCain gave his well-received acceptance speech. So expect another 1-2 points tomorrow. Right now this is an 11 point McCain swing, boys and girls - from -8 to +3 in FIVE DAYS!

(Excerpt) Read more at constitutionclub.wordpress.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2008polls; bounce; electionpresident; mccain; mccainpalin; obama; palineffect; palinpower
I think the bounce will continue to Wednesday.
1 posted on 09/07/2008 2:30:19 PM PDT by Mongeaux
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To: Mongeaux
I think Obama talking about his Muslim faith on ABC will get him a negative bounce.
2 posted on 09/07/2008 2:32:15 PM PDT by A CA Guy ( God Bless America, God bless and keep safe our fighting men and women.)
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To: Mongeaux
I think the bounce will continue to Wednesday November.
3 posted on 09/07/2008 2:34:09 PM PDT by Cementjungle
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To: A CA Guy
Arugula Boy is wilting, wilting . . . aeeeeeeeeee . . . . ( * whimper * )
4 posted on 09/07/2008 2:34:28 PM PDT by surely_you_jest
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To: Mongeaux

Expect the MSM to characterize this as a “small” bounce, focusing only on how far ahead of Obama he winds up, not on how many total points he got (11 on Gallup so far).


5 posted on 09/07/2008 2:38:37 PM PDT by CA Conservative
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To: Mongeaux

Just curious if Obama got a “bounce” like this from his convention? I seem to recall him remaining static in some polls.


6 posted on 09/07/2008 2:39:09 PM PDT by LibertyRocks ( http://LibertyRocks.wordpress.com ~ Pro-Palin & NObama Gear : http://cafepress.com/NO_ObamaBiden08)
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To: Mongeaux; Grampa Dave
Right now this is an 11 point McCain swing, boys and girls - from -8 to +3 in FIVE DAYS!

I kee phaving this vision of a rabid dog, foaming at the mouth and trying like mad to sink it's teeth into it's tail.

The left and the mediot enblers will be going crazy on this news. They will ratchet up the hate and the public will react negatively to it. I LOVE IT.

7 posted on 09/07/2008 2:39:29 PM PDT by BOBTHENAILER (One by one, in small groups or in whole armies, we don't care how we do it, but we're gonna getcha)
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To: Mongeaux

Over sample, just to make sure -— LOL ...


8 posted on 09/07/2008 2:42:39 PM PDT by Tarpon (Three things matter when selecting a President - character, character and character.)
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To: LibertyRocks
Just curious if Obama got a “bounce” like this from his convention? I seem to recall him remaining static in some polls.

In Gallup he got about 4 points.


9 posted on 09/07/2008 2:42:53 PM PDT by Mongeaux (''I would sooner be governed by the first 2,000 names in the Boston phone directory," W.F. Buckley)
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To: BOBTHENAILER
They will ratchet up the hate and the public will react negatively to it.

Well, you nailed that one, Bob.

10 posted on 09/07/2008 2:44:27 PM PDT by Navy Patriot (The beauty of conservatism, Sarah Palin.)
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To: Mongeaux

It has to translate over to electoral.

That is still too close.


11 posted on 09/07/2008 2:44:32 PM PDT by Names Ash Housewares
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To: Mongeaux

We’re moving in the right direction.


12 posted on 09/07/2008 2:46:45 PM PDT by GOPJ ("Vegetarian" - Old Indian word for "bad hunter")
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To: Mongeaux

registered voters...likely voters would be even better for GOP, right?


13 posted on 09/07/2008 2:48:05 PM PDT by rushmom (l)
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To: rushmom
registered voters...likely voters would be even better for GOP, right?

Yes, I believe "likely voters" would ratchet that poll up another 3 points at least.

14 posted on 09/07/2008 2:51:08 PM PDT by Mongeaux (''I would sooner be governed by the first 2,000 names in the Boston phone directory," W.F. Buckley)
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To: Cementjungle

agreed...we’ve got to see some consistency and longevity in McCain’s lead for the next eight weeks....


15 posted on 09/07/2008 2:56:57 PM PDT by God luvs America (When the silent majority speaks the earth trembles!)
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To: God luvs America
In my view, the election is now McCain's to lose. He will probably keep the lead through Election Day.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

16 posted on 09/07/2008 2:58:53 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: A CA Guy

“I think Obama talking about his Muslim faith on ABC will get him a negative bounce.”

Yep, this should do it:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2zQK_EhDhZQ


17 posted on 09/07/2008 3:00:37 PM PDT by DJ Taylor (Once again our country is at war, and once again the Democrats have sided with our enemy.)
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To: Mongeaux

Most exciting is that the poll was conducted before the Republican convention was completed.

There will be a new poll Monday that Gallup says will be the first since the completion of the convention. Keep your fingers crossed the McCain lead continues, and maybe even increases.

Hopefully, this isn’t just a bump from the convention, but a real and sustained lead.


18 posted on 09/07/2008 3:04:50 PM PDT by FFranco
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To: goldstategop

McCain/Palin need to do two things to win. Keep their cool in the debates and do the vetting of Obama that the MSM won’t do. There will be no surprises about McCain that McCain can’t handle. Sarah is a different question. I’m reserving judgement there until I see her in some interviews because we know the MSM and the DNC has lawyers and creeps crawling around in her garbage can and cesspool.


19 posted on 09/07/2008 3:07:56 PM PDT by jwalsh07 (Sarah Palin Pro Life, Pro Gun, Pro America, Thank you Lord! :-})
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To: A CA Guy

What are you talking about? Did he really admit to it?


20 posted on 09/07/2008 3:17:26 PM PDT by NYC Republican (Infuriate the MSM- vote for Palin/McCain)
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To: Mongeaux
Image and video hosting by TinyPic
21 posted on 09/07/2008 3:20:20 PM PDT by Caipirabob (Communists... Socialists... Democrats...Traitors... Who can tell the difference?)
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To: Mongeaux

Oh,oh—biden better be ready for those bus wheels.


22 posted on 09/07/2008 3:24:59 PM PDT by freeangel ( (free speech is only good until someone else doesn't like what you say))
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To: NYC Republican

It’s on Youtube. The context is missing, but what is there is pretty shocking.

It’s on George Steph.’s show, whatever it’s called. Today’s show.


23 posted on 09/07/2008 3:27:30 PM PDT by Marie2 (Everything the left does has the effect and intent of destroying the traditional family.)
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To: goldstategop

I appreciate your optimism- I will remain very catious....


24 posted on 09/07/2008 3:31:00 PM PDT by God luvs America (When the silent majority speaks the earth trembles!)
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To: NYC Republican

Heart felt slip of the tongue.


25 posted on 09/07/2008 3:48:34 PM PDT by A CA Guy ( God Bless America, God bless and keep safe our fighting men and women.)
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To: rushmom

Exactly. Registered=+2 for Dems. This poll is really a 50% poll for McCain. Very good news.


26 posted on 09/07/2008 5:26:02 PM PDT by LS ("Castles made of sand, fall in the sea . . . eventually." (Hendrix))
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