Skip to comments.Palin bump revealed: McCain leading Obama in new poll
Posted on 09/07/2008 3:23:47 PM PDT by markomalley
Whether it was John McCain's speech or the presence of Sarah Palin, or whatever, the GOP tickets has emerged from two weeks of convetions with a slight lead in the latest Gallup daily tracking poll.
The 48 percent for McCain, 45 percent for Obama lead represents the first time McCain has led in the poll since mid-August. The 48 percent ties his largest base among registered voters being polled since this poll began in March.
Again, and as always, poll numbers in September do not determine the outcome of an election, and this is state by state. but it does seem to show that the GOP, despite critiques that they were deadly dull before Palin's appearance, put on an effective convention.
In all, the poll represents a six point upward bounce for McCain from the peak of the Obama convention bounce. Obama's new number represent a five point fall for the Dems.
What's interesting is that this poll was conducted after the convention was over, and after at least several negative Palin stories broke, implying at least that voters at this point are not overly concerned about the news coming out out the new veep, and in fact look to be impressed.
OMG! Arugula Boy is wilting! Say it isn’t so!
Upstate NY online poll
With both conventions now over, who are you voting for?
I suspect the lead will grow until Tuesday or Wednesday. Republicans always do better during the workweek it seems.
Once the Muslim comment by Obama finishes making its way around this election could be a rout...
This morning on ABC, the Constitutional Law professor referred to Biden as the “President of the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations”.
It’s Chairman, Senator.
Should we all meet on Election Day at the MSDNC building and cheer on Keith, Chrissie and Andrea to Jump ??
I never watch PMSNBC but if McCain/Palin wins this on Nov. 4th, (which is looking more and more likely) I’m going to tune in just to watch Ol-Bore-Man’s head explode has he tries to explain the Dem loss to “racism”.
Polls are meaningless. It’s the Electoral College. M/P need to get Pennsylvania and keep Ohio and Florida.
How sweet it will be when Obama and Biden drag their sorry butts back to the Senate where they will be presided over by the President of the Senate, Sarah Palin. How sweet it will be...
I tend to put very little stock in polls, but this one does contain a lot of things that bode well for Mccain/Palin
1. Gallup tends to oversample dems.
2. The poll is Registered voters, Likely voter totals almost always trend more to the R.
3. this only contains 2 days after McCain’s speech, so the entire convention bounce is not yet included.
4. R’s tend to poll worse on weekends, and this contains a Friday and Saturday.
5. This is without Obama’s “my Muslim Faith” faux Pas.
That would be sweet too !
Praise ala and George S. for reminding him what faith is is today .
McCain 48 to 45 among registered voters, means a bigger lead with likely voters.
But there is plenty of time for bombshells, lead changes, etc.
And how a national 3 point lead translates into state by state results is the biggest deal.
I have seen scenarios whereby Obama could lose the national vote, and win the electoral vote, like Bush did.
Finally I believe televised debates have usually impacted Presidential voting quite a bit.
Me either. Hoping for some stellar numbers from Rassmussen et al tomorrow morning. Rasmussen said Tuesday might actually represent the peak of the McCain bounce. Apparantly it can take an extra day to sink in and process. Still, looking for some good news tomorrow to get em even farther back on their heels.
Ooooooooo. I like your mind!
Any of you following my posts know that I have said two things pretty consistently---and taken a lot of heat for it: a) the polls, mostly, are accurate, and b) you have to know how to read the polls.
"Adult" polls generally poll about four points higher for Dems than do "Likely voters." "Registered voter" polls generally poll two points higher for Dems. In other words, this poll suggests McCain has now 1) reached 50%, and 2) jumped out to a significant lead on Obama.
Exactly. This says that McCain has now reached the magic 50% threshhold, and that he really has something like a 5% lead. It’s hugh, and series.
I heard that Kerry is winning all the exit polls in every state. I’m about to wet my pants! (Or maybe the plants out back) :^)
Everyone has a dream !
More than likely what we're seeing is that the SurveyUSA state polls (which always lag national polls by a week to two weeks) will start shifting significantly. And just a shift of 3 states will reflect a substantial McCain EC lead (i.e., it could reflect a 70-electoral vote difference, with McCain gaining 35 and Obama losing 35).
McCain going from 45 to 48 in one day is HUGE. This is a 3 day AVERAGE of daily surveys. Notice the poll almost *never* moves more than a point in any direction. If he really bumped up from 45 to 48 then he was easily over 50% on the latest day the poll was taken. Unless today’s polling goes bad for McCain he should be over 50% on Gallup tomorrow.
These are probably closer to reality than any of the mainstream polls; otherwise, the Democrats would not be going to such extremes with their opposition.
Some major nerves have been struck.
McCain and Palin will now remain in the lead. Just watch.
USA Today has todays numbers up already -- now 50-46 McCain among registered, and 54-44 among LIKELY voters.
At this point the less experienced candidate will begin to show. O’Bama is showing signs of panic-going directly against Palin, wanting to debate, flubbing his words. He is under pressure and he will begin to make mistakes. Responses to these mistakes will, if handled by McCain correctly, solidify and increase the lead.