Posted on 09/07/2008 3:23:47 PM PDT by markomalley
Whether it was John McCain's speech or the presence of Sarah Palin, or whatever, the GOP tickets has emerged from two weeks of convetions with a slight lead in the latest Gallup daily tracking poll.
The 48 percent for McCain, 45 percent for Obama lead represents the first time McCain has led in the poll since mid-August. The 48 percent ties his largest base among registered voters being polled since this poll began in March.
Again, and as always, poll numbers in September do not determine the outcome of an election, and this is state by state. but it does seem to show that the GOP, despite critiques that they were deadly dull before Palin's appearance, put on an effective convention.
In all, the poll represents a six point upward bounce for McCain from the peak of the Obama convention bounce. Obama's new number represent a five point fall for the Dems.
What's interesting is that this poll was conducted after the convention was over, and after at least several negative Palin stories broke, implying at least that voters at this point are not overly concerned about the news coming out out the new veep, and in fact look to be impressed.
Me either. Hoping for some stellar numbers from Rassmussen et al tomorrow morning. Rasmussen said Tuesday might actually represent the peak of the McCain bounce. Apparantly it can take an extra day to sink in and process. Still, looking for some good news tomorrow to get em even farther back on their heels.
Ooooooooo. I like your mind!
Any of you following my posts know that I have said two things pretty consistently---and taken a lot of heat for it: a) the polls, mostly, are accurate, and b) you have to know how to read the polls.
"Adult" polls generally poll about four points higher for Dems than do "Likely voters." "Registered voter" polls generally poll two points higher for Dems. In other words, this poll suggests McCain has now 1) reached 50%, and 2) jumped out to a significant lead on Obama.
Exactly. This says that McCain has now reached the magic 50% threshhold, and that he really has something like a 5% lead. It’s hugh, and series.
I heard that Kerry is winning all the exit polls in every state. I’m about to wet my pants! (Or maybe the plants out back) :^)
Everyone has a dream !
More than likely what we're seeing is that the SurveyUSA state polls (which always lag national polls by a week to two weeks) will start shifting significantly. And just a shift of 3 states will reflect a substantial McCain EC lead (i.e., it could reflect a 70-electoral vote difference, with McCain gaining 35 and Obama losing 35).
McCain going from 45 to 48 in one day is HUGE. This is a 3 day AVERAGE of daily surveys. Notice the poll almost *never* moves more than a point in any direction. If he really bumped up from 45 to 48 then he was easily over 50% on the latest day the poll was taken. Unless today’s polling goes bad for McCain he should be over 50% on Gallup tomorrow.
These are probably closer to reality than any of the mainstream polls; otherwise, the Democrats would not be going to such extremes with their opposition.
Some major nerves have been struck.
McCain and Palin will now remain in the lead. Just watch.
USA Today has todays numbers up already -- now 50-46 McCain among registered, and 54-44 among LIKELY voters.
At this point the less experienced candidate will begin to show. O’Bama is showing signs of panic-going directly against Palin, wanting to debate, flubbing his words. He is under pressure and he will begin to make mistakes. Responses to these mistakes will, if handled by McCain correctly, solidify and increase the lead.
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