Posted on 09/08/2008 6:39:37 AM PDT by sunmars
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows John McCain with a statistically insignificant one-point lead over Barack Obama.
In the first national polling results based entirely on interviews conducted after the Republican National Convention, McCain attracts 47% of the vote while Obama earns 46%. When "leaners" are included, it’s McCain 48% and Obama 47%.
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
In my uninformed, uneducated opinion, we will find that the percentage of Dims and Republicans actually voting will be much closer than this.
Turnout, baby, turnout!
I think he is hinting at this when he writes here:
For a variety of reasons, the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll is less volatile than some other polls and always shows a somewhat smaller convention bounce than reported by others. This is primarily because we weight our results by party identification (see methodology). Looking at the data before adjusting for partisan identification, the Republican convention appears to have created a larger surge in party identification than the Democratic convention the week before. If this lasts, it could have a significant impact on Election 2008.
Obama’s convention bumb did not show up in Rassmussen until Wednesday after his speech. So McCain’s bump has not completely shown up yet.
Problem is, he's still running against Bush....premise is McCain=Bush. Not a good strategy, IHMO, as the last I checked, President Bush is not in the race.
Basically what you are seeing is the conventions were a wash, and the blatantly obvious trend and movement toward McCain has continued and will continue until election day short of some massive shake up or unforseen event.
Tommorrow and the next few days after that are the ones I’m looking for, as they will start including numbers from this week, not friday and weekend numbers.
The trend was clearly toward McCain before either convention, and post both convention it certainly seems like the trend is continuing. The next update of the EC states should be interesting. Last one prior to both conventions showed every state that moved, moved right. Post convention I don’t see this trend not continuing.
Fauxbama has lost the race, lets face it, this weekend he’s on the talk shows arguing we shouldn’t be comparing resumes but simply voting for parties.... that’s a fundamental signal of a loss. Even if folks vote party, that’s not an argument folks want to hear or will motivate them. Ignore the man, just vote the party.
I know the press and bloggers are jumping all over his “my muslim faith” flub, but that’s not the real story. The story is Fauxbama not by mistake, not by slip, but with intentional forethought is promiting that voters should just ignore the candidate and vote party. That’s utterly stupid, and should be what everyone should be jumping on.
I can’t defend or given you a cogent reason to vote for ME, but vote for my party. That’s an insane argument, and its largely been ignored.
I’m ignorant to why lying to exit pollsters is a good idea. Can you help me out?
Yep, tommorrows numbers will be a better judge, and by weds for sure we’ll know where things stand.
Yep, and running against Palin is a waste for him too.
because on election days it does two things, fakes out corrupt msm who leak exit polls to tell bambi supporters he is winning when he’s not.
It also pushes the GOP base out if we make them think theres a chance of losing the state.
“Turnout, baby, turnout!”
I agree. Although it’s hard for me to fathom how Obama could even be getting 1% of the vote, he’s got his loyal followers and lots of money. Evidently, they have a highly organized ground game and add in the cheating, they’re going to make this a close race. Turn-out will be crucial.
That’s right, Obama is an Alinsky/Acorn/Soros man. No level of voter fraud would be beneath him—and by all accounts he’s been working on it for months.
No matter what the final bounce...a LOT of hard work needs to be done to get out the vote for McCain/Palin.
The state by state polling numbers still favor Obama because they lag. State polls aren’t taken as often and are frequently weeks or even months old. If McCain is ahead, the state polls will start to reflect that fact over the next few weeks.
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