Posted on 09/08/2008 6:39:37 AM PDT by sunmars
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows John McCain with a statistically insignificant one-point lead over Barack Obama.
In the first national polling results based entirely on interviews conducted after the Republican National Convention, McCain attracts 47% of the vote while Obama earns 46%. When "leaners" are included, it’s McCain 48% and Obama 47%.
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
McCain 52%, Obama 47%
Males: McCain 56% Obama 43%
Females: McCain 49%, Obama 50%
I believe Rassmussen more than any other polls. I knew it was ridiculous to believe he had a huge lead. This race will be close no matter what people say. It will probably come down to a state or two again. We will prevail, but it will be a nail biter.
Which makes no sense to me. Rasmussen just a week or so ago said that the gap between Dems and GOPers had closed to 5.7%. The only reason I can think of for such a discrepancy is he still he feels Dems are far more motivated to vote. Since the Palin selection I no longer see any justification for such a view. Maybe I'm missing something...
Ahhh, here's my answer. Thank you. I thought it was a monthly rolling average. So with the 90 days then these September numbers are trailing the fairly new 5.7% differential.
It could backfire, if the scenario started to look like 2000 in western Florida, where the conservatives just didn’t vote because it looked like Gore had won Fla.
But, I just remember the look on Susan Estrich’s face when the actual results started coming in after the exit polls showed a Kerry victory. Priceless.
All those state polls are at least a week old or older.
No, they don't.
I totally agree.
No heterosexual, non-minority men are going to vote for Obama and against McCain. Within a few weeks, Mc is going to have a ten point lead with men, and be at parity or better with women. Then....lights out, we won.
>>
For September, the targets are 39.7% Democrat, 32.1% Republican, and 28.2% unaffiliated
>>
Remember, Ras gets these targets with a 3 *month* survey. The recent Palin-derived GOP surge in affiliation won’t show in his targets at all pre-election because there’s only one month left. Next month’s targets will see a GOP increase and that will boost McCain’s daily results, but it will be averaged with August and July.
Ras results don’t move much because he forces that party mixture.
Also, McCain’s surge in polling is the result of big McCain nights in the daily surveys. They will roll off.
All bounces fade and this one will, too. But the fade may not erode much for the same party mixture reasons . . . volatility is held down by that mix.
As for some other talk floating around, some debunking:
1) There is no weekend bias in polls. If there was, the pollsters would apply their own counter bias to achieve accuracy.
2) There is no agenda in polls other than accuracy. Accuracy gets more paid contracts.
3) Bounces erode.
4) There is no failure to poll the young. Cellphones are now included by most pollsters. Many people dump the calls via caller ID, but there is no evidence GOP vs Dem voters do so more often than the other.
5) The same thing is true of lying in poll results. There is no evidence one side does it more than the other for whatever imagined agenda.
gotcha thanks. I like it overall, but concern is if McCain-Palin supporters think it’s lost, they may not go and vote.
Excellent post.
That’s exactly what I’m saying. Rasmussen is a more conservative approach (I mean slower, less volatile...not referring to political conservative.)
However, above all else, Rasmussen is very open about his special sauce. Others don’t reveal theirs. I think it makes sense to be more conservative.
Someone who thought he was democrat last week and suddenly thinks he’s Republican this week makes me wonder what he’ll think next month. That’s why I like a 90 day rolling average to balance all that out.
The cheating will be unlike anything we have ever seen.
Right. It’s a conservative approach. It’s strength is that it balances out fickle voters jumping from one to the other to back again.
Not to quibble, but it’s three-month rolling average, not a ninety day one. In polling parlance there is a difference. Ras polls party identification monthly and averages the past four months of data to get his targets. At the end of every month, the number from three months ago drops out of the average and is replaced with the number for the previous month. So the current targets are an average of three data points, party identification for June, July and August. Beginning Oct.1, the number for June will drop out and the number for Sept. will be added in.
If a 90 day rolling average was used, party identification would have to be polled every day and the number from 90 days ago would drop off each day.
The significance is that a three month rolling average, in an environment like the current one where Pubbie identification is increasing rapidly, understates McCain’s support more than a 90-day rolling average would.
I’m glad you quibbled, LNV. I prefer to be accurate.
Excellent post. Thanks.
“Ras polls party identification monthly and averages the past four months of data to get his targets.”
To be more precise, he averages data from three, two and one month ago. The current month is excluded for obvious reasons.
In my opinion, Mac shouldn’t even respond to them. Let Obama waste his cash. I don’t think NC is in danger of going to his column. (I said ‘column’ hehe!)
I’ve been playing with my calculator, and my best guesstimate is that Ras is currently understating McCain’s support by somewhere between .85 of a point and one full point due to the rapidly changing partisan identification numbers (i.e., not taking into account sampling error or any other way that error can be introduced.)
This is not to imply in any way that Ras is TRYING to understate McCain’s numbers. To the contrary, Ras bends over backwards to get it right, but knowing when one is right is impossible in polling, at least until November 4th.
Rolling averages are a time-honored method of reducing statistical noise. That is why he is using them.
To Rasmussen’s credit, he goes out of his way to explain how he does what he does and why he does it.
Lots of other folks don’t share how they concoct their brew.
FWIW, RCP’s average of polls is just about where Rasmussen says things are.
You’re thinking that McCain is actually up by about 2-3 in Rasmussen’s numbers. We’ll not see the full effect of the last day of the Pub convention until tomorrow, iirc.
McCain's commercials were weak, I thought. Trying to paint Obama as a "do-nothing", "unpopular" Senator....unfortunately, McCain is in the Senate, too. (quickly pointed out by my apolitical, but generally Dem-voting wife). Bad commercials from McCain.
In this area of NC, Obama signs and Bumper Stickers are running about 8 or 10 to 1. I think that it's meaningless, though, as Obama supporters are a lot more vocal, IMHO. The only people that I know of that are voting Obama, would vote (D) anyway. Of more interest to me is the fact that Mrs. WBill, a Southern Dem, says that "The Jury is Still Out" in her opinion. I think that she's leaning McCain.
Obama is going to need to do more than maintain his base, in order to get NC into his column (huh huh huh, I said 'column'). Ain't happening, at least not thus far.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.