Skip to comments.In-trade takes a 5 point over night bounce!!!
Posted on 09/08/2008 7:24:22 AM PDT by politicalmerc
Look at the Intrade numbers that have been holding at roughtly 60/40 for Obama until two nights ago. Last night they took a 10 point shift. This is one of the most predictive indicators of anything. People put their money where their polling is.
By Wednesday it should be 60/40 for McCain.
Before I get a flood of corrections, Mccain’s numbers moved 5 points last night, the entire poll took a 10 point shift because Obama’s numbers moved in the opposite direction. We are basically in a dead heat according to intrade. Until now, intrade has been basically 60/40 for Obama.
That’s good news, but I think Intrade is far less reliable in 2008 than Tradesports was in 2004. The ban on funding with credit cards has dried up the pool of American traders, and the inside information that once had real impact on Tradesports is gone.
I absolutely LOVE your tag: “Obama: more arrogant than Bill Clinton, more naive than Jimmy Carter, and more liberal than LBJ.”
I’m going to steal it!
The Palin bashers have stirred up a mighty hornets nest. They have no idea how they have motivated people with their baseless attacks.
I swear the guy peaked half way through the Democrat primary season. He lost 9 of the last 14 primaries, his convention was dominated by the Clintons, his VP choice is a dud, and people have begun to realize that he has no experience, no accomplishments, and he keeps saying stupid stuff in public.
The media would like to cover for him for 2 more months, but they may find that hard.
If it wasn’t so long, it would make a great bumper sticker.
Wonder when their bet/odds re Bin Biden dropping out will pick up traction.
“Obama: more arrogant than Bill Clinton, more naive than Jimmy Carter, and more liberal than LBJ”
...that IS an awesome tag line! Someone mentioned it as being too long for a bumper sticker. Maybe. Perfect for a lawn sign though!
Doesn’t look like a dead heat to me; it looks like Obama is still ahead of McCain by a little over 4 points.
Nice to see the gap narrow, though.
There is no precedent for any VP dropping out doing any good. The only precedent is the Eagleton model, and we know how that turned out. OTOH, if they want to do that so they can blame the messiah’s loss on a rich white man, that might be fine.
This morning when I posted it, the prices were 50.9 for Obama and 49.1 for Mccain.
Very interesting site. I can’t believe I never heard of it.
INteresting and good to see Michigan rose 8% for McCain. I can’t understand how anyone in Michigan, with our dependence on the auto industry, would vote for Obama. Union thugs I guess.
Overnight, Ohio turned from majority 0bama to majority McCain-Palin!!!
Colorada +6 McCain, -6 0bama!!!
51/48.5 right now.
Don’t put too much in these markets....they failed to see Enron coming, and Worldcom, and Bear Stearns and....
Just so people will not be confused, the charts that were posted were from Last nights close! This morning the numbers had shifted another 5 points. It’s bouncing around right now but basically we are at split 50/50 right now.
On the Bill Cunningham show last night a guy called in asking more questions about Obama’s citizenship status. Says they can’t really prove he was born in Hawaii in 1961 and the campaign seems to be running away from this. Bill said it was possible that if it were revealed Obama was not born in the US then he might have to drop out and Clinton would step in. This is a bit of a far fetched scenario but Bill insisted if it happened that Hillary certainly would win the general election. I do not agree though. Can you imagine the fracture this would cause? The Dems would be in a crisis, not to mention the huge turnout among African Americans probably would be reduced. Or there would be such ill will there that the election would surely be lost. So I am almost wishing this whole scenario would play out.
Markets only work when the GOVERNMENT and FRAUD are kept out. Enron, Worldcom and Bear Sterns were all Government or Fraud problems.
If there is widespread voter fraud nothing can predict that.
Hey, just a thought...
On my company’s intranet there is a real-time stock ticker for my company’s current stock price (we are Fortune 100).
Would it be possible to add a doo-hickey to have the current McCain-Palin intrade %?
It would make a great aerial banner towed by a low-flying aircraft!
Did anyone just watch FOX's interview with Bob Bechel (sp?). He showed he is scared silly about Palin. He was stuttering. Called her a Rotweiller (didn't know she said Pit Bull), called Wasilla..."Walissa," and when corrected still couldn't say it.
But the jist of it was...he couldn't stop comparing Sarah Palin to Obama, and couldn't get the message that his opposing commentator (I am sorry, I forget who she was) kept trying to make: Sarah is running for VP, Obama for Pres - so what's your beef, you big guy? Bob downed Sarah's experience, stating that Alaska is the same size as Obama's Senatorial District. Now that was a hoot. Sarah manages and governs that state, budget, National Guard, etc. And Obama does what - listens to the phone calls, writes letters, writes dumb legislation, and writes autobiographes, oh, yes and votes "present" on important legislation.! He kept stating that O is more prepared to run the country than Sarah. But, in his hysteria forgot that she is not going to be in charge on DAY 1...like Obammmi wants to be. Obama, on the other hand has never even had an office (physical size) as big as Sarah's is!
Then...when he was further informed that Palin has executive capabilities serving 2 years as Governer of Alaska, a state that shares borders with two foreign countries (a fact no other state can claim), Russia and Canada, Bob said "Russia, Alaska bordered by Russia?" LOLOLOL. I guess he was no good at geography and doesn't know where the border of Alaska ends out in the ocean at Russia's LOLOLOL. Then he added, "Oh, I guess that makes her an expert on Russian affairs!" He also said something stupid like, "Does she manage the National Guard" or something. I couldn't quite catch all he said, he was jabbering so fast, like he was totally hysterical.
When the FOX's Bill Hemmer said that all he heard over the past two days, everywhere he went, people were asking and talking about Sarah Palin. Bob said "Funny, I didn't have that experience, no one mentioned her." another LOLOLOL. His opposition said "Bob, no wonder you didn't hear anyone talking about Sarah, you stayed in your house all weekend, worrying about Palin." I hope someone caught the segment. It was on American Newsroom.
Well, to be more honest, it is that government involvement comes built in with fraud. What are political favors when done by law or regulation are very often fraud or extortion when the exact same thing is done in the private sector. For example — the section 8 minority set-asides for housing and for small business contracts within government projects would be extortion and illegal discrimination by race and gender if done in the private sector.
I agree, Bill is completely wrong. If the Democrats lose Obama. they lose the black vote. They can't win without them.
Hah Hah! I was posting over at Intrade last night when the swing was more modest, and to top it off, I had predicted that there would be a swing.
John McCain to win 2008 US Presidential Election M Trade 48.0 48.4 48.0 464561 +4.5
Barack Obama to win 2008 US Presidential Election M Trade 51.5 51.6 51.6 332649 -5.0
I don’t expect the Biden contract to gain much traction because Intrade has a heavy pro-Obama bias — kinda obvious when the polls show a 10 point lead and Intrade still has Obama 3 points ahead.
Note the difference in price and volume between Biden and Palin withdrawal contracts. This difference could conceivably be used to quantify such a bias.
Sarah Palin to be withdrawn as Republican VP nominee/candidate
Contract Bid Ask Last Vol Chge
Sarah Palin to be withdrawn as Republican VP nominee/candidate before 2008 presidential election M Trade 4.8 4.9 5.0 15510 +0.9
Joe Biden to be withdrawn as Democratic VP candidate
Contract Bid Ask Last Vol Chge
Joe Biden to be withdrawn as Democratic VP candidate before 2008 presidential election M Trade 3.0 3.5 4.2 110 0