Skip to comments.Gallup Daily: McCain’s Bounce Gives Him 5-Point Lead
Posted on 09/08/2008 10:36:47 AM PDT by notes2005
PRINCETON, NJ -- John McCain leads Barack Obama, 49% to 44%, in the immediate aftermath of the Republican National Convention, according to the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking results.
(Excerpt) Read more at gallup.com ...
let’s not get cocky!
Change the title, the bounce is of SIX points:
“Thus, Gallup credits McCain with a six-point convention bounce.”
All other things being equal, the Democrat nominee should have a double digit lead in the polls at this point.
It’s a measure of Obama’s serious weakness as a candidate that he’s actually behind right now.
It’s unlikely to get better for Obama. The better-known his background and positions have become, the less people like him.
McCain/Palin have to keep hammering at his record and intentions. That approach is a winner.
or add “McCain post-Convention Bounce better than Obama’s”
“lets not get cocky!”
Yeah, Han warned Luke about that, and Luke had to deal with the death star later!
Hopefully by the end of the week, things will start polling better for McCain in the electoral. That is what matters.
We got a good start, time to fight folks, time to fight.
This is very similar to the bounce coming out of the 2004 GOP convention if I recall.
This race has been recast. The bloom is off the Obama rose and he will have to go really negative which just puts him in the role of another Kerry. If we hold our own in the debates, and we should, this election could be ours.
In this movie, the Death Star is ACORN.
We need to be well ahead on election day to win this thing. The Donks have been investing heavily in vote fraud, and they will expect a pay-off on Election Day.
We’ve got Palin power.
Every poll I’ve seen shows McCain/Palin in the lead now, except for the one from CNN which says its a tie. No surprise there.
This is amazing in that this poll had it 50-42 Obama just 6 days ago. This is a 13 point move for McCain/Palin.
Sen. McCain, you had me at “Sarah Palin”.
LOL, great line. He actually had me after Saddleback, but Palin actually put some real enthusiasm behind the support.
This isn’t going to last, not at this level, this is like a super ball bouncing. It’s very good news though, once things settle down it will be within the margin of error, but the opportunities for Obama to move up are going to be limited.
Obama can’t make another silver-tongued speech and get a ton of press, he’s just got the debates, and his speech-making skills will make it difficult for his campaign to lower expectations.
McCain/Palin are in very good shape, though probably not as good of shape as this poll would indicate (I’m guessing it’ll be a 2-point race by a week from now).
We won’t...but, we can be happy, happy, happy!!! ;^)
Sen. McCain, you had me at Sarah Palin.
I’m looking forward to reading Ann’s next column.
What do all these polls of “Battleground States on RCP have in common?
Battleground States — Obama — McCain — Spread
Colorado-—————— 45.2 — 44.8 —NObama +0.4
Nevada——————— 44.3 — 45.3 —McCain +1.0
Michigan-—————— 45.3 — 42.0 —NObama +3.3
Ohio———————— 44.0 — 44.6 —McCain +0.6
Pennsylvania-———— 47.4 — 42.4 —NObama +5.0
Florida-—————— 43.2 — 46.3 —McCain +3.1
ANSWER: All except Nevada were taken before Palin’s speech, -——and in most cases, before her selection.
Gallup’s write-up of today’s poll is very interesting. It noted that Obama consistenly led McCain until the conventions. It then made the following general points.
Gallup noted that in Presidential elections from 1964 — that’s the past 11 elections — the candidate who consistently led their poll before the conventions continued to lead after the conventions. I did some “quick math” and determined that this happened 7 times: 1964, 1966, 1972, 1976, 1984, 1996, and 2004. But not this year.
The four elections where the candidate consistently trailed before the conventions and then took the lead after the conventions were 1980, 1988, 1992, and 2000. In two of these elections (1988 and 1992), the candidate who led after the conventions never again trailed. In one of them —the 1980 election — Gallup had Carter slightly ahead at points both before and after the conventions. And in 2000, Gore led briefly after the two conventions but fell consistently behind again, then caught Dubya in the last weekend before the election and actually ended up winning the popular vote.
Here is my point. In the four cases where the trailing party (McCain this year) took the lead in the Gallup poll after the conventions, that candidate won on to win the popular vote in three of those four elections. And in two of those three elections, that candidate never trailed again. I’m not saying that it’s going to happen again this year, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it does.
One last point: this year this may be even more true this year because of the extraordinarily high television ratings for the big speeches in the two conventions. Again, things can change and no two elections are or can be exactly alike.
I guess those styrofoam GREEK TEMPLE pillars weren’t big enough!!.....lol
I tuned in Air America this morning and they are going to start getting brutal. No nuclear. You have not seen nothing yet.
Paraphrasing the morning host, “we have to launch everything we have to take Palin out of this election”. The afternoon host Ed Schultz said he will be broadcasting his show soon from Alaska. He’s is setting the stage where he will have an open microphone of Palin haters from Alaska.
I want to tell everyone something. If you recorded Governor Palins speech, keep it. If you have a link to it, bookmark it. I will guarantee you we will want to look back at that glorious night to re-energize ourselves after being gut punched several times between now and November. The attacks will continue. Expect them. And they will get worse, they will even go nuclear if they have too. You will feel at times that maybe Obama will pull it off after all. Dont fall for it. Dont fall for the rope-a-dope. Stay energized. Stay in the game. We are going to win.
I just saw a new MI poll that has that state essentially tied. Based on the last two elections, MI runs about 6 points more Democratic than the national average. And if McCain is now tied in Michigan, this means that he is now very slightly ahead in Pennsylvania as well, and slightly more comfortably ahead in Colorado, Nevada, Ohio, New Mexico, and Florida.
"For a variety of reasons, the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll is less volatile than some other polls and always shows a somewhat smaller convention bounce than reported by others. This is primarily because we weight our results by party identification (see methodology). Looking at the data before adjusting for partisan identification, the Republican convention appears to have created a larger surge in party identification than the Democratic convention the week before. If this lasts, it could have a significant impact on Election 2008."
I’d be optimistic if this were Nov 3rd. At this point, the poll is interesting but unimportant.
That’s a beautiful thought.
Where can I score some of tha' killa weed ya' sm0kin' man?
He had me at ABO... Anybody But Obama.
I'm hoping that the end of the bounce is not yet in sight. I'm not expecting a blowout win, but I can't even describe how good it would feel if we can somehow pull it off.
Because of vote fraud, McCain/Palin need about a 10% lead.
I had to stop by a hospital in Hartford, CT this afternoon... every TV in the waiting rooms was tuned to CNN, unfortunately. They were crowing over the "fact" that the polls are tied after the RNC, then I noticed the small print on the screen: it was only CNN's own poll that was tied. They must have polled their own employees... LOL.
People watching (subjected to, is more like it) CNN's coverage were commenting: "Oh look... the polls are tied!" as if it was a fact. Typical disinformation spewed out by the Commie News Network...
I heard this AM that the USA Today/Gallup poll had McCain up by 10 points.
Don’t worry, the Dims are still plenty freaked that The One lost his convention bounce. Admitting a tie is plenty painful.
o First, that Obama had enjoyed a 7-point lead in the polls just after the DNC convention. That is not my recollection. I thought it was a 2 or 3-point lead. I remember thinking, "That is no bounce at all...yippee!" (I didn't really say "yippee!)
o Second, they pointed out the fact that there is a margin of error in the poll. Why don't you hear that when the poll is favorable to their candidate? (Don't answer)
o And third, they said these polls move up and down like "an EKG graph." Also, something you don't you hear when the poll is favorable to their candidate.
There could be bias in the MSM. I'm not quite sure.
Imagine what the numbers would look like if Gallup was honest and not a RAT house organ.
Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin are all in play for us as well. I'm not sure we will win any of them, but we don't need to in order to capture the White House. The mere fact that they are close has to be very encouraging for the McCain campaign.
This one's going to won on the ground. Neighbor talking to neighbor.
I think we are going to see McCain pull ahead now.
Obama has NOTHING, he has been exposed and since the Iraq war is going well, his major issue has been removed.
I think that board needs to be readjusted. No way Obama is ahead in the EC.
I’m not only feeling better about the Presidential but better about congress. I think they’ll still gain some seats but not the bloodbath feared.
The dems in 02 and 06 pounded on “It’s better if one party has congress and the other the Presidency” now let’s use that against them.
Flip NV and CO and we’ve got it.
And I think we’ll get them. And then some.
No slack Johnny Mac. Keep driving up his neagtives and get Sarah Palin in fron of as many people as possible.
Stop Hussein vote McCain.