Posted on 09/08/2008 3:01:59 PM PDT by Zakeet
White Women Shift to McCain as Republican Erodes Obama Lead on Change, Enthusiasm
John McCain's taken the better boost from the presidential nominating conventions, eroding Barack Obama's advantage on change, improving on enthusiasm, moving away from George W. Bush -- and advancing among white women with help from his surprise vice presidential pick.
Some of McCain's biggest gains in this ABC News/Washington Post poll are among white women, a group to which "hockey mom" Sarah Palin has notable appeal: Sixty-seven percent view her favorably and 58 percent say her selection makes them more confident in McCain's decision-making. Among those with children, Palin does better yet. And enthusiasm for McCain among his female supporters has soared.
White women have moved from 50-42 percent in Obama's favor before the conventions to 53-41 percent for McCain now, a 20-point shift in the margin that's one of the single biggest post-convention changes in voter preferences. The other, also to McCain's advantage, is in the battleground Midwest, where he's moved from a 19-point deficit to a 7-point edge.
Obama, for his part, shows little or no progress on his chief challenges -- the question of his experience, the definition of the change he'd bring about and his efforts to entice former Hillary Clinton supporters aboard. Obama continues to lead McCain by a wide margin in enthusiasm, but his advantage on some key issues has softened.
(Excerpt) Read more at abcnews.go.com ...
Someone else said it was 50D, 41R. Doesn't matter. While 36D sounds about right, 28R is too low. It should be at least 31 or 32R. This poll still has too many Democrats relative to Republicans to be a genuinely representative sample of the electorate.
Oversampling of blacks per the poll to conform to the national weighted average.
We need to keep reminding the residents of Colorado that Obama will impose a Windfall Profits Tax on oil.
As an oil producing state, Colorado should be very afraid of a Windfall Profits Tax.
A Windfall Profits Tax is nothing more than a wealth transfer from oil producing states to the residents of New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, and other Northeast states.
And the debates will be crucial. These polls are encouraging for McCain, but we have a very long way to go.
With the huge margins favoring mccain/PALIN, I wondered why they were showing even, until I saw the following at the bottom of page 4.
“METHODOLOGY: This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone Sept. 5-7, 2008, among a random national sample of 1,133 adults, including an oversample of African Americans (weighted to their correct share of the national population), for a total of 211 black respondents. Results among the 961 registered voters have a 3-point error margin. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, PA.”
Since when are African Americans 19% of the population? I thought the number was closer to 12%, especially with the current invasion we’re experiencing?
I made a similar comment on another thread. One explanation for these results may be statewide demographics. FLA and CO do not have the same union, Reagan Dem. population as OH, MI, and WI. The later three states show McCain doing much better than I would expect. FLA and CO, somewhat worse.
Another possible explanation for the weird swings in female and catholic vote that aren't show up in the electoral college is that McCain has swung a lot of non-union voters in hopeless states like CA and NY but not in battleground states like FLA and CO.
All in all, a thoroughly odd year with some really weird numbers.Because if McCain is +7 in Ohio, the entire country should be going red. And it isn't, . . . yet.
This poll still has too many Democrats relative to Republicans
I would agree.
But that’s really good news. If a third of the voters on November 4 are Republicans McCain will win by 5 points.
Thats a landslide.
Let me put it this way. If McCain is really up 7 in Ohio, then he should also be winning in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Jersey (yes, New Jersey), and Oregon. Washington would be a toss-up and California would be very light blue. Every state that Dubya won four years ago would be even redder (okay, Iowa may be a special case -- it's likely going for Obama because the entire state is addicted to ethanol and McCain rightly opposes further ethanol subsidies). Florida would be way out of reach, with Colorado close behind.
If Rasmussen's national numbers are right (and even he says that he may soon need to adjust his weights by party identification to reflect a closing of the Democratic advantage in recent weeks), then I would expect Ohio to be a toss-up, McCain to have small leads in Florida and Colorado, and to trail in Pennsylvania by more than 2 points (that state trends about 3-4 points more Democratic than the national average).
I will grant you that having Palin on the ticket may be worth a point or two in places like Pennsylvania and Ohio, where Obama performed very poorly in the Democratic primaries. And in Michigan, home of legions of hockey moms and clueless Red Wing fans....but I digress.
OMG. The left is nothing but filthy scumbags.
I thought the speech was effective. But for some reason 2008 is the year in which entirely new ground is being plowed. It's a paradigm shift election. The old rules don't apply.
By any reasonable standard, BO should be down 30% in the polls. He just finished potty training, learned his political licks under unrepentant terrorists and despicable machine politicians, hangs out with black nationalists who like Farrakhan, and mentored under an unrepentant communist as a child.
The electorate has decided (correctly in my opinion) that they want something different. But they haven't really figured out what that means. BO may turn out to be what they want. And if we elect him, what they deserve. It would be a pity if the rest of us have to survive their poor judgment.
The ratmedia uses the term “dead heat” to make themselves feel better.
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