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Poll Position: Be Very Afraid
Radar Online ^ | September 9, 2008 | Peter Feld

Posted on 09/09/2008 3:47:30 PM PDT by Zakeet

Oh no! The polls! They suddenly don't look good for Barack Obama! But does it really matter at this point? Should the campaign—and its supporters—start to panic? We checked in with two Democratic strategists who have different opinions on the situation. Here's the case for pessimism.

The jobless rate is up, home sales are down, and the Democrats have an appealing, history-making nominee. So that rash of McCain red, spreading like measles over the RealClearPolitics.com polling chart, is nothing to worry about—a temporary Republican sugar high, right?

Not so fast. Yes, this year's trends should favor the Democrats, with a poor economy and an unpopular Republican president. But we can't ignore how much the underlying landscape always favors the Republicans.

Sunday night, USA Today released a shocking poll that puts McCain four healthy points above 50%, leading Obama by 54%-44%, with only 2% undecided. Six other polls have McCain narrowly ahead or tied; none has Obama leading—a sharp reversal from last week.

If you hide behind electoral maps or statistical projections at your favorite number-crunching site, and ignore the national polls because "it's 50 state elections," you'll be lulled by projections based on weeks-old data, often conducted by middling polling operations. And you'll miss what's happened.

This election just flipped.

(Excerpt) Read more at radaronline.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2008election; 2008polls; 2008rncconvention; bounce; mccainpalin; obama; polls

Peter Feld is a writer and long-time Democratic strategist.

More good information in the article.

1 posted on 09/09/2008 3:47:31 PM PDT by Zakeet
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To: Zakeet

McCain is 73 years old and is a melanoma survivor. Voters wonder if his would be an abbreviated Presidency.

With the selection of Governor Palin, he has turned that possibility into an asset.


2 posted on 09/09/2008 3:50:17 PM PDT by Jeff Chandler (Democrats are Intimidated by Strong Women.)
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To: Zakeet

I was sitting in my office at work a little while ago, thinking about the momentum that McCain has captured, and thinking that now it’s going to take something out of the ordinary to arrest it. Obama knows it, too.

The obvious hit me; there’s no need to speculate on whether or not Biden get’s dumped and Hillary get’s added to the ticket. It WILL happen. Not that I think it necessarily spells disaster for the McCain campaign. But I fully expect it now. It’s the only way they can hope to stop this thing that is just about to get away from them.


3 posted on 09/09/2008 3:54:40 PM PDT by MeanFreePath
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To: Jeff Chandler

Obama is a former smoker, and his parents died young. What if Biden were just a heartbeat away ....?


4 posted on 09/09/2008 3:54:47 PM PDT by USFRIENDINVICTORIA
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To: Zakeet
Yes, this year's trends should favor the Democrats, with a poor economy and an unpopular Republican president.

And an even more unpopular Congress.

5 posted on 09/09/2008 3:56:05 PM PDT by TexasNative2000 (Obviously, liberals can't handle a strong, independent woman.)
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To: MeanFreePath
The obvious hit me; there’s no need to speculate on whether or not Biden get’s dumped and Hillary get’s added to the ticket. It WILL happen.

It will never happen.

6 posted on 09/09/2008 3:56:47 PM PDT by E=MC2
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To: E=MC2

I don’t think Hill would take it.


7 posted on 09/09/2008 3:59:59 PM PDT by willgolfforfood
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To: Zakeet
Ears-Hussein just made a flippant implication that Sarah Palin is a pig.

Even if B.O. steals this election in the dead of night, he will have at least half the country hating him for this remark for the next 4 very long years.

8 posted on 09/09/2008 4:00:05 PM PDT by kromike
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To: Zakeet
“Barack Obama has never needed to win swing voters. His entire career has been based on appealing to core Democrats—from his organizer days, to his state Senate career, to his 2004 speech to a packed Boston convention hall, and his US Senate race that same year (he had no serious Republican opposition), to his stunning series of primary and caucus victories earlier this year. This results in a certain tin ear when it comes to communicating with the economically anxious, politically disengaged voters who Bill Clinton had such a gift for reaching out to.

But the problem isn't only Obama himself, it's those around him who live in the same bubble, who think a good way to connect with average American voters is to stage a mass rally—more than double the size of Obama’s largest U.S. crowd—in a foreign country.”

Welcome to the real world, bubble boy.

9 posted on 09/09/2008 4:01:58 PM PDT by mojito
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To: MeanFreePath

“The obvious hit me; there’s no need to speculate on whether or not Biden get’s dumped and Hillary get’s added to the ticket. It WILL happen.”

Personally, I don’t think Mrs. Clinton is dumb enough to go along with this. She wants to be President, not VP. Her best chance at this is to let Obama lose. Then she can go head to head with McCain or maybe Palin in 2012. If Obama loses, he will go on the scrap heap of history...he will be through as a politician. I wouldn’t even expect him to run for reelection in the Senate.


10 posted on 09/09/2008 4:02:11 PM PDT by Sola Veritas (Trying to speak truth - not always with the best grammar or spelling)
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To: MeanFreePath

The problem is that doing it is a sign of great weakness in the candidate for POTUS. When they dumped Eagleton it was because he had been nuts and electro shocked out of it. That had nothing to do with McGovern. If they Eagleton Slow Joe it will highlight the very lightweight top of the ticket. They’d probably win, but what good would that do Hillary. Would she slowly vegetate while the haloed one ran the country?A loss after a wooing to join the ticket, in private of course, sets her up for the contest with Saraccuda in 2012.Hillary’s ego tells her she’ll win. No, she sits this one out. The Dems dance with the ones that brung them, as Al McGuire always said.


11 posted on 09/09/2008 4:06:13 PM PDT by xkaydet65 (Freedom is purchased not with gold, but with steel.)
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To: MeanFreePath
The obvious hit me; there’s no need to speculate on whether or not Biden get’s dumped and Hillary get’s added to the ticket. It WILL happen.

You think Obama has a death wish?

12 posted on 09/09/2008 4:09:07 PM PDT by elmer fudd (Fukoku kyohei)
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To: Jeff Chandler
With the selection of Governor Palin, he has turned that possibility into an asset.

That was cruel and cold,

and I agree with your observation.

13 posted on 09/09/2008 4:11:22 PM PDT by fanfan (SCC:Canadians have constitutional protection to all opinions, as long as they are based on the facts)
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To: Jeff Chandler

McCain just turned 72 a few weeks ago, and his mom is 96.


14 posted on 09/09/2008 4:13:31 PM PDT by snarkytart
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To: xkaydet65

Clinton would be stupid to do. It would make her look weak
to cave in to them after the way they treated her and she
would forever be associated with Obama , the biggest loser
since ... Dukakis. She has her eyes on 2012.


15 posted on 09/09/2008 4:13:50 PM PDT by RED SOUTH
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To: xkaydet65

“The problem is that doing it is a sign of great weakness in the candidate for POTUS. When they dumped Eagleton it was because he had been nuts and electro shocked out of it. That had nothing to do with McGovern. If they Eagleton Slow Joe it will highlight the very lightweight top of the ticket. They’d probably win, but what good would that do Hillary. Would she slowly vegetate while the haloed one ran the country?A loss after a wooing to join the ticket, in private of course, sets her up for the contest with Saraccuda in 2012.Hillary’s ego tells her she’ll win. No, she sits this one out. The Dems dance with the ones that brung them, as Al McGuire always said.”

Your logic is sound. But I think she won’t be able to resist the temptation to come in and save the ticket, right now. Her ego will be torn. It’s incredibly hard to walk away from the spotlight for these people, even in a calculated way. And if she comes in as the VP candidate, and they lose anyway, I don’t know that she’s any worse off for 2012 than if she sits out. In fact, I’m sure the dem numbers will improve with her on the ticket, and she can point to that as an indicator of what might have been if she had been the nominee.


16 posted on 09/09/2008 4:15:45 PM PDT by MeanFreePath
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To: MeanFreePath; Sola Veritas

“The obvious hit me; there’s no need to speculate on whether or not Biden get’s dumped and Hillary get’s added to the ticket. It WILL happen.”

I agree with SV. This will NOT happen. Too many folks look at Hillary as VP from their own perspective rather than Hillary. If she joins the ticket, it would guarantee an dem win. But why would Hillary want that? Wouldn’t she be far better of gambling that by not joining the ticket, she ensures an Obama defeat? And, imagine just how much she would enjoy saying “Told ya”. She would become the dem nominee in 2012 by acclaimation.

And, consider the balance of power should Obama take Hillary as VP and then win the election. How many times would Hillary demand special power because she won the election for Obama? She would exercise more power than he and that would be unacceptable for Obama.


17 posted on 09/09/2008 4:26:32 PM PDT by DugwayDuke (What's more important? Your principles or supporting the troops? Vote McCain!)
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To: mojito
Welcome to the real world, bubble boy.

Bump!

18 posted on 09/09/2008 4:31:30 PM PDT by fanfan (SCC:Canadians have constitutional protection to all opinions, as long as they are based on the facts)
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To: USFRIENDINVICTORIA

“”Obama is a former smoker, and his parents died young. What if Biden were just a heartbeat away ....?””

Yes, how true. It is also well documented that cocaine and smoking crack (with or without Larry) is very detrimental to the heart and irreparable. Some ER physicians are shocked to discover ‘ 80 yr. old’ hearts in the bodies of young addicts in there 20’s & 30’s. How long did he say he was a drug addict?


19 posted on 09/09/2008 4:33:41 PM PDT by Gemsbok (Drill here, Drill now, & Pay Less!)
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To: xkaydet65

If Obama keeps going the way he has been since the conventions, the Democrats may be less interested in the “Eagleton option” and more interested in the “Toricelli option”.


20 posted on 09/09/2008 5:01:09 PM PDT by Reverend Wright (Vero Presumptuous... Obama '08)
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To: Zakeet
Interesting analysis.

So far, the RAT response seems to be to try to drive up Palin's negatives. The only problem with that, is that while their rabid base will eat it up, the voters in the red states that Obama needs are likely to be turned off by it.

Quite an interesting predicament they are in. Lets hope McCain keeps the pressure on them and doesn't give them a chance to regain their footing.

21 posted on 09/09/2008 5:01:49 PM PDT by comebacknewt
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To: kromike
Ears-Hussein just made a flippant implication that Sarah Palin is a pig.

What are you talking about?

22 posted on 09/09/2008 5:02:11 PM PDT by Lucas McCain (No relation to John McCain)
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To: Reverend Wright

The Toricwlli Option?? For that they’d need to name Jimmy Carter or George McGovern to play the role of Frank Lautenberg


23 posted on 09/09/2008 5:14:53 PM PDT by xkaydet65 (Freedom is purchased not with gold, but with steel.)
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To: Zakeet
..."it's 50 state elections," ...

Not to worry. The 'other' seven states are pulling for the big 0.

24 posted on 09/09/2008 6:59:43 PM PDT by uglybiker (1f u c4n r34d th1s u r34lly n33d 2 g3t l41d)
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To: MeanFreePath
there’s no need to speculate on whether or not Biden get’s dumped and Hillary get’s added to the ticket.

Why would she take the spot?

If BO wins with her on the ticket, she defers her next run at the presidency until 2016--that's a long way off and she's no spring chicken. Even worse, she makes it more likely that BO will win by being his VP. Not in her interest for him to win.

OTOH, if BO loses with her on the ticket, it takes away her luster as the Palin killer. That's the only reason to put her on the ticket and she failed. That makes it less likely she gets the nod against Palin in 2012 or 2016.

We can only hope Obama will drop Biden for someone lame like Sibelius. That will tank his campaign completely because she is so obviously a token added out of panic.

25 posted on 09/09/2008 7:45:35 PM PDT by ModelBreaker
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To: xkaydet65
The Toricwlli Option?? For that they’d need to name Jimmy Carter or George McGovern to play the role of Frank Lautenberg

Maybe he'll add a senior statesman of the party like Franklin Roosevelt as his VP.

26 posted on 09/09/2008 7:46:47 PM PDT by ModelBreaker
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To: Zakeet
Remember Mena?

Obama will never let Hillary on the ticket - he would fear for his life.

27 posted on 09/09/2008 9:40:02 PM PDT by 1stMarylandRegiment (Conserve Liberty)
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