Skip to comments.Rasmussen 9/10/08: 48-47 Obama with leaners (46-46 w/o leaners)
Posted on 09/10/2008 6:58:09 AM PDT by CatOwner
This results matches the WSJ poll released yesterday showing Obama up 47-46 with leaners. I am starting to think that the Gallup results (+5 RV, +10 LV) are outliers.
You mean you’re starting to HOPE that Gallup is an outlier. :-) Because the recent CHANGE in momentum has to be disconcerting.
The thing is, Rasmussen himself said that we won’t see all of the bounce until around now, and we’re seeing his poll move in the opposite direction.
The other thing is that there doesn’t seem to be any explanation for why numbers would be moving in Obama’s direction.
I think all the polls, Gallup included, are a bit odd right now.
Rasmussen uses a weird party “enthiuasm” factor based on three months prior (well before the conventions and Palin came along to change everything) to weight his polls. If there is an outlier, it will be Rasmussen from here on out.
All these polls confuse me. I’ve seen polls showing white women’s support up tremendously, and men’s support for Palin up trememdously.
No poll is consistent. What poll is more trusting? Any of them?
Personally, I think Rasmussen is oversampling Democrats. But I don’t mind, because we can’t get complacent with the favorable polls. This is just a reminder that we have a long way to go.
I don’t know what this means. Rasmussen is an automated survey. Palin is mobilizing both sides. The question will be the effect the O Reilly and Charles Gibson interviews are having and will have. Biden is totally out of the picture. Obama is going after Palin, he doesn’t look presidential. By this time four years ago, Bush was taking off....5 to 6 pt ahead. Mac is scoring big in Montana and NC. It’s nip and tuck in NM, CO, VA, IN, OH
September 9, 2008
Gallup Daily: McCain Maintains 5-Point LeadSupport among registered voters steady at 49%
Different polls different results???
Let’s see if this changes after the “lipstick on a pig” story is out for a while. It just happened yesterday. It’s all the networks are talking about this morning. Of course, MSNBC is in full damage control mode.
There's no thinking about it. Rasmussen had an article last week stating that the gap between Dems and Pubbies had closed to 5.7% (and this was immediately after Palin's selection and before the GOP convention). Yet he's been using a model that has about 9% points more Dems than Pubbies. That's due to a rolling 90-day average he uses. No problem. He's completely up front about his methodology.
So if you think that Dems will outvote Pubbies by about 9 points in November, the race is indeed about 50/50. If you believe the 5.7% number is accurate, then McCain/Palin are still enjoying their bump.
If, like me, you think (based on new enthusiasm, fundraising numbers and registration numbers) that the gap will continue to close through November, then McCain/Palin are in pretty good shape in what is still a close race.
Without some sort of major change, this is going to be a very close election in the popular vote. Stump speeches and campaign stops are not going to change anything; those are just preaching to the choir.
The only major opportunities for a “sea change” that we know about are the debates. There are still “wild card” opportunities for such a change, like a terrorist attack or some sort of “Tet Offensive” in Iraq.
Barring a major mistake by McCain (0bama’s will be covered up by the msm), this is what we will get to the election.
Or in other words Rasmussen is playing a game of some sort...
That's my guess as to where the problem is with the Rasmussen polling. Claimed party identification probably changed significantly over just a few days following Sarah Palin's speech.
I could call myself a Republican, Libertarian, Democrat or an independent, and I would not be lying, since my state doesn't require a political party to be declared except to vote in a primary.
I personally like the way Rasmussen has done over the years but I think the only way to get a true picture, or as true as it can be is to look at as wide an assortment of polls as is available and attempt to get a general sense of what is happening.
None of these polls can account for the “Bradley Effect” which we will see on election day.
I agree with you about the methodology.
I said this in previous posts that we still have to look at this election as our side being 10 points down and give it all we can.
But at this point, only thing that worries me is the GOTV efforts and ground game as NoBama is pretty strong there and dont know if our side is as strong as 2004. But I am sure Schimdt has that under control..
You mean you HOPE they're wrong? :-) Let me help you out. Read my post #12 for an explanation.
All the “MO” has been with MCCAIN of late. I think Rasmussen is mising boat a bit on something. All the trends are going MCCAIN way- I don’t get it.....
What I don’t understand is how Rasmussen’s polls fail to reflect a 23 point swing in white women voters in favor of McCain. That is a pretty big share of the voting public and a big swing. For the Rasmussen polls to be showing about what they were before the conventions he must be seeing a similar swing in Obama’s direction from some other demographic group. I’d like to know what that group is.
I guarantee you the numbers are probably closer with independents to a 50/50 sample.
If we look at that, the 5% bounce makes sense that is showing in other polls.
Of course, am hoping the Bradley effect will counter the fraud and ground game efforts on the Rat sides so that will be a wash.
I usually think Rasmussen is the most accurate pollster, but even he admitted the other day that surging party ID for the Republicans after the convention may have rendered his turnout model, which is some months old, obsolete.
I also wonder about likely vs. registered voters in this election. My wife volunteered in Republican headaquarters the other day and a guy came in who hadn’t voted since Reagan’s last election. He’s definitely voting to keep Obama out of the WH this time. He certainly wouldn’t be included in Rasmussen’s “likely voter” pool. He simply wouldn’t be counted. but he would be counted among Gallup’s registered voters. So which poll is more accurate this time? It could be Gallup.
All bounces fade, but McCain’s is fading almost not at all.
Ras is now the same method he was in 2004. I believe he used previous election turnout to determine Dem/GOP/Ind target mix then. Now he uses a 3 month average, and of course 2 months ago the move back to GOP had not begun. This is the weakness of his method and he knows it. Relatively rapid changes in party affiliation won’t be captured.
Gallup is more random. It will pick up such a rapid change, but its weakness is what it has always been — that sample to sample can show large changes in party affiliation. People say “he oversampled Dems”!!!! He didn’t. He sampled randomly and that number of Dems is what he got. Big variances in that can occur and only some are real.
The result is that with the change in Ras method from 2004 you cannot compare this year’s results to 2004. All you know anything about is trend, and there is a tiny erosion of McCain bump — 1.5% max so far.
It’s all about fundraising right now. McCain’s team is fighting to get big poll bumps, even if they are unsustainable, to discourage Dem donors. The message will get far away from strong right wing quotes over the next few weeks in order to avoid energizing checkbooks.
Watch which states Obama visits. That’s all the polls I need.
And I have nothing but anecdotal evidence, but I'm quite certain the 5.7% gap has further closed in the past weeks since Ras' data was compiled.
I wonder how much operation chaos factors into the polling.
I agree, that's a definite concern for me. An article just a day or so ago was highlighting how the McCain camp is supposedly putting a lot of money into TV advertising, while the Obamessiah is supposedly focusing more on GOTV resources.
Polls historically have given the dhimmirats a few points more than the actual election results.
0bama will have to be 5 points up to make it an actual elective close race.
The actions of Obama is the only Poll I need to see.
I see the crowds and Obama has lost appeal and Palin has them overflowing.
“So if you think that Dems will outvote Pubbies by about 9 points in November,”
Well, then, let’s hope the young Obama crowd has smoked too much the night before to limp over to the polls.
We will find out in the next two weeks of the states that the campaigns are going too and hopefully will give the McCain campaign and the RNC time to get GOTV going in those states.
But I feel confident with the enthusiasm level. Thats what got us the WH in 2004 and I think the level now definitely exceeds enthusiasm levels in 00,02 and 04.
I understand his 3 month rolling party affliation, but it would be nice if once or twice a week he’d just give the bare bones numbers without any tinkering, you know?
I suppose I could mathematically do the numbers if I get time later today...
Rasmussen said that if there was a sudden swing in party affiliation percentages that his polling would be way off until he caught the swing.
I see it this way. In the Miracle on Ice. The Soviets did not get blown out. What stunned them is when it was close going into the 3rd period. They were stunned and never got it together. Expecting a blow out and getting a hard fight.
We should not even be in this race right now. The Democrats should be up 10 or 15 points. CONSIDER WHERE WE WERE 6 MONTHS AGO.
Pay no attention to national polls. It is the state polls that count and in Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Virginia, North Carolina and Florida are showing a distinct McCain/Palin shift.
I hadn’t yet heard of the 48-47 numbers, but I can believe them. The rest of your post is exactly what I was saying - or trying to say :-) - up above.
I remember 1980 and how close everyone thought the race was...right up until Carter conceded at 8:00 PM EST.
Hey Rasmussen, if Mccain is winning the majority of white women, indys and white males just tell how the hell is this thing stil TIED? He needs to look at his sampling techniques.
I haven’t seen the internals, so I honestly can’t speculate.
that was just a matter of timing to be doing a poll at the time the story broke.
zogby is no longer credible with his number’s tweak.
Maybe Rasmussen has decided to model Democrat voter fraud in this year's election.
I hate the fact that in many cases these polls are constructed to give a biased viewpoint, trying to keep the race close for whatever reason (media want Obama and hates GOP, Rasmussen/Zogby want viewership to remain high during the election).
How about Cynthia McKinney and the Green Party? /s
> VA and especially CO have me concerned, and I think this is where the election is won or lost <
I don’t see the Dhimm’s taking VA. At most, they may improve on Kerry’s 2004 performance by a point or so.
Let’s remember that Jim Webb won VA in 2006 by a mere 5000-vote margin. I believe that slim victory was made possible only by his support among four groups that would otherwise have voted for George Allen:
1. Coal miners and other mountaineers of SW Virginia, to whom Webb appealed as a fellow Scots-Irish descendant. Given Obama’s “anti-coal” remarks, however, and given that Hillary carried this area easily, it’s hard to see how Obama does well in the Virginia mountains.
2. Vietnamese refugees in northern Virginia, who were wooed non-stop by Webb’s Vietnamese wife. But Obama and his wife have zero appeal to this group — maybe less than zero!
3. Asian Indians (Hindus) all over the Old Dominion, who were offended by Allen’s “maccaca” reference. Some of them might look favorably on Obama as a fellow man of color. But then McCain has an adopted daughter — with very dark skin — from Bangladesh. And it’s hard to see much Hindu enthusiasm for a man whose father was a Muslim. Advantage McCain.
4. Navy and Marine Corps active duty personnel and vets, plus their families, in the Hampton Roads area. A signficant percentage of them voted for Webb due almost entirely to his Marine Corps record. They’ll also swing heavily to McCain, likewise for his Navy service.
So Obama may as well stop buying ads and paying staff in VA. Otherwise, it will be money down the drain.
The poll the people take in NOV on Election Day!
None of the thousands of polls taken by the dozens of pollsters before then matter and are to be taken with a grain of salt!
How can 20% of the women shift to McCain and it result in Obama +1? Aren’t we half the population and more than half of the voting population? (Women typically vote a little more than guys do.)
Before the Rep. convention it was 48-43 Obama. (If I’m reading the chart right.) That’s a five point difference. If 20% of the women shifted and NO men, we should see McCain up by 5% now. I’d also add that we now have more conservatives in the “Likely Voter” category than two weeks ago. Palin will get us off the couch on election night like McCain never could.
I think Rasmussen is off somehow, but I’m willing to wait for next week’s polls before I finalize that impression.
We also need to wait a week to see the impact of the lipstick comment. If it’s anything like Kerry’s “bunny suit”, he’ll never regain his momentum.
He is, but not because of bias. Rassmussen uses a 90-day rolling average of party affiliations to balance his sample. In the current sample that meant an extra 7.9% of the sample were D’s compared to R’s. His own current data says that the registration advantage is now 5.7%.
If any FReepers are Premium Members of the Rassumssen site, they can probably get the breakdown of the polls by party affilitation and recompute the result weighting the parties by current affiliation numbers instead of the rolling average. I suspect the calculation would show McCain/Palin up a few points.
private polling vs public polling
remember FNC’s Morris said only 7% of men were undecided while 40% of women were undecided.
I suspect Obama’s panic is related to the non-public polling.
I have never ... including Reagan ... seen Repubs so enthusiastic and committed.
(Just another anecdotal, but still ....)