Skip to comments.Fox News poll: McCain leads by three, gains 16 points among independents since last month
Posted on 09/10/2008 12:55:20 PM PDT by Free ThinkerNY
Obama hasnt lost ground since last month he was at 42 then and hes at 42 now but McCains gained six points since, thanks mainly to that surge among indies. If the CW is right and independents are currently overrepresented by conservatives disgruntled with the GOP but sympathetic to its principles, then the convention was a huge success in drawing them back. Current favorable ratings among indies: McCain 67/21, Palin 55/25, Obama 50/39. 40 percent of them say theyre more likely to vote for McCain after the Palin pick versus 31 who say less, again suggesting a rightward tilt. Note the lines here, too, especially on the experience question:
(Excerpt) Read more at hotair.com ...
I am of the opinion Pollsters are under representing the number of GOP voters. I think a lot more people consider themselves Republicans now than several months back, and pollsters have not adjusted their assumptions.
I'm thinking that those people really just didn't know what "compelling narrative" means.
If he gained 16% in the past month and is now up by 3%, he would have been down 13% last month. Sorry, I don’t remember that being the case.
Fox News/Opinion Dynamics are more interesting for their internals than their conclusions. Their sampling methodology is horrendous and they generally poll leftward of the other pollsters as a result. Looking at the breakdowns by sample does give you some decent ideas, though.
That is just among self described independents.
McCain gained 16 points among independents, not the whole electorate. He’s up 3 points among the whole electorate, not merely independents.
"but McCains gained six points since,"
It’s quite possible. Rasmussen is presuming that people haven’t changed party identification since the conventions, but comparing Gallup and local polls to the national results suggests that large numbers of people are calling themselves Republicans.
Bump for McCain-Palin!
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