Skip to comments.When Independents Stampede
Posted on 09/11/2008 9:17:50 PM PDT by Plutarch
The standard explanation of John McCain's post-convention, post-Sarah Palin bounce is that the maverick lurched to the right with his selection of the Alaska governor and brought the base back home. But a closer look at Gallup's latest poll results tells a different story.
While Sen. McCain's support among Republicans inched up to 90% from 89% preconvention, his support among independents jumped to 52% from 40% at the end of August. Neither Mr. McCain nor Barack Obama had previously clocked majority support among independents in this election cycle, according to Lydia Saad of Gallup. Among what Ms. Saad calls "pure independents" -- those who say they lean neither liberal nor conservative -- Mr. McCain's support nearly doubled after the convention, to 39% from 20%.
Thus the combination of the convention and the Palin pick seems to have done much more than just shore up Mr. McCain's conservative base. It helped swing a substantial number of those precious swing voters -- for now. Whether the most recent numbers stick in the coming weeks remains to be seen. Even now, some 40% of these true middle-of-the-roaders say they are undecided in the race.
Still, the bottom line is that Mr. McCain seems to have broadened his appeal to moderates and independents by his choice of running mate. No wonder, then, the all-out push by the Obama forces to paint Mrs. Palin as some sort of extremist. The bad news for Mr. Obama is that, so far, it isn't working.
(Excerpt) Read more at online.wsj.com ...
“No wonder, then, the all-out push by the Obama forces to paint Mrs. Palin as some sort of extremist.”
Looks like Charlie Gibson got the memo too.
While Sen. McCain’s support among Republicans inched up to 90% from 89% preconvention
but the support turned from an “ok I’ll vote for the guy because Obama is so bad” to “I want to do more”
The majority of Americans are good and fair people. The left is going to be sorry they ever embarked on this blitzkrieg against Governor Palin. They made a major mistake.
The bad news for Mr. Obama is that, so far, it isn’t working.
***I guess I won’t get tired of hearing that. But the MSM seems to be deaf right now.
I think it is going to get to the point of how ‘bad’ they will lose.
The coat tails effect on Congress has to be of great concern as well.
That understates the improvement in Republicans voting for McCain. Party affiliation for the GOP in most polls has gone from about 32% to 37-38%.
I don’t know why they haven’t figured out that a sizable portion of swing voters are looking for a real conservative message and a President they can be proud of. They fell for Bush big against Kerry and they have historically shifted to the right. They may not see themselves as identified with any one party but looking at how they vote shows them voting to the right. One of the untold stories is that the demographics that are always said to favor Democrats have been shifting towards conservatives. New freshman are markedly more conservative than they were even ten years ago. So much of Democrat politics is based on mythology. They assign themselves advantages they do not really have while conservatives tend to underestimate their advantages in having the domain of patriotism, fiscal and social conservatism to rally to as well as extreme liberalism to rally against.
Here is an interesting blurb.
“The UCLA Higher Education Research Institute has tracked the attitudes of incoming freshmen at hundreds of colleges nationwide since 1966.
Its 2003 study found that 51 percent of freshmen supported casual sex in 1987; four years ago 42 percent did. In 1989, 66 percent of freshmen believed abortion should be legal; and in 2003, 54 percent did. In 1995, 66 percent of kids agreed that wealthy people should pay a larger share of taxes; in 2003 it was 50 percent. Students have traditionally favored stiffer gun control laws, but the study found that there has been weakening support for them over the years.
Is this a true representation of young adults four years later on the brink of a crucial presidential election?”
Not only is it not working—but it’s backfiring.
A game is won with a point guard who sets up plays not with a “look at me” 3 point shooter.
Plain was a great pick, but I think John McCain has not gotten enough credit for his masterful speech. Ignore the parts interrupted by the fat Code Pink losers, and his stumbles though mundane policy quirks. McCain’s repudiation of GOP excesses, humble opening of his heart, and sharing the origin of his dedication to this nation really struck a deep chord with independents (the Lou Dobbs set) as well as all Americans.
those mundane policy ‘quirks’ moved McCain’s numbers on the question of the economy! He needed to prove that he ‘gets it’
“The polls would be more informative if they asked if the new supporters of McCain/Pailn considered themselves to be liberal, centrist, or conservative”
From the article: “Among what Ms. Saad calls “pure independents” — those who say they lean neither liberal nor conservative — Mr. McCain’s support nearly doubled after the convention, to 39% from 20%.”
The Wall Street Journal tries to maintain a certain 'look' to its front page. None of the renderings I've seen there could even remotely be regarded as glamor shots. Governor Palin's seems pretty typical.
What is not discussed much is the idea that many Americans were looking for something different than the regular pattern of middle to upper-aged white males. Tim Pawlenty would probably have made a nice veep, but there’s no way he would have made the commotion that Palin has created.