Skip to comments.New Rasmussen Poll: McCain/Obama statistically tied in Washington; Rossi up 6
Posted on 09/12/2008 9:56:01 AM PDT by swmopatriot
WA: Obama 49, McCain 47 Gregoire 46 Rossi 52
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
Rossi leading incumbent Democratic Governor Gregoire is also great news. We need to make sure he wins by a solid margin this time, so there isn't a repeat of 2004.
This is awesome! The prospect of McCain-Palin winning Washington is incredible! And it will be even better if Rossi can unseat Governor Gregoire. Things are looking better by the day!!!
Wow! This is not following the MSM play book. I love it when things don’t follow the MSM playbook.
This shows closure. Not a lead. Eyes on the prize. Win the battlegrounds. Flip Wisconsin. Flip Pennsylvania. Hold Nevada. Hold New Mexico.
Do that and the victory is won.
You should never refer to Gregoire as “Governor.” That election was stolen.
The consensus view a couple of months ago was that Gregoire was going to win the governorship in a cake walk. What’s happened to change that? The Indian casino debacle or something else?
Guys, anything can happen before the election. Keep focused.
Now he is apparently having fund raising issues AND is being forced to enter into an expensive ad campaign in states that he didn't expect to.
Point is, he's created a giant paid staff that he either has to keep paying or he has to let them go, something that liberals hate to do. Will they stay if they aren't being paid? I doubt that many will. And what will the effect be publicly and on his ground campaign.
He no doubt had built up his ground team in states he wanted to challenge, such as GA, but which are now dominantly McCain. Is he ready in MI?
0bama must have a lot on his mind these days.
have a great day (and weekend!) all.
Michigan 51/46 Obama,Wyoming 58/39 McCain
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Posted on 09/11/2008 10:05:10 PM PDT by neverdem
Acorn and lawyers will have a say about this.
Given that he has not been running TV ads until recently, this suggests a very large organization of paid workers....and they're paid by ABC, CBS, and especially MSNBC, along with some 527s. :')
I’m near Bellingham and have not been able to get any Rossi or McCain signs from the local GOP HQ.
Is anybody else in WA having a similar problem?
sniff sniff -
Scapegoats will have to be found and publicly executed. Intraparty discipline must be at the breaking point. As down ticket candidates begin to understand that, forget coattails, Obama is an anchor in any district where the issue is close, they will begin to distance themselves first passively and physically, then openly with public criticism.
The interest groups like the teachers union, the government Union, the feminists, environmentalists, the gays, virtually all of them except the African-Americans, will demand that " something be done." First lone voices, then a chorus, then an orchestrated cry will become irresistible.
We're approaching the moment of maximum danger when Hillary is added to the ticket.
Been a few threads on this already...
I was actually one of the ones polled for this. That’s what changed it :~)
You need Washington’s 11 electoral votes, Obama, but they are slipping away.
Owen, erosion in WA, one of the bluest of blue states, shows that your battlegrounds are going to flip or be held as well.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
Palin may help in Washington due its proximity to Alaska. There’s a lot of AK to WA transplants.
A new poll shows barack mcgovern just + 2 in Washington. I guess it is true that he is like a burning tire around the neck of down ballot democrats. This is great news!
Hillary is not stupid.
There is NO WAY she is going to try to cushion his fall.
He made his bed, he’ll have to lie in it.
I’m in a Seattle suburb. A few days ago, a couple of guys in their early 20s came around campaigning for Rossi. Never had a Republican campaigner visit before.
There are a lot of small-’C’ “conservative” Californian expatriates that have moved to WA state in recent years too.
It is almost impossible to know what might motivate Bitch Clinton in her calculations. She will have considered that nearly a third of modern vice presidents go on to be president.
That is, if they win. If they don't win, she is virtually the automatic nominee in 2012. I do not suggest that these arguments are conclusive but they are certainly persuasive and no one can guarantee that Hillary will not go for it.
If Obama can’t win Washington, it is over for him.
He can’t and it is.
Washington is part of my landslide scenario. Some of these shifts have moved so fast that they only need to keep moving at glacier speed to ensure victory.
HOUSE OF REPS in play-—BIG TIME.
LOL !!! What if Nobama won NM(5) and NV(5) and LOST WA(11) [I think those numbers are right]. That would still be a net loss of minus 1 !!!
I agree it was stolen and the reason Rossi is on top now is that he handled like a gentlemen. No whining, no claims of thievery, no name calling.
The people of Washington State know what happened and it may just be a different story this time.
I can’t imagine any scenario where Hillary could be on the ticket now. Here is why.
1. If she was on the ticket she would have to wait till 2016 when she will be in her 70’s.
2. Joe Biden will never be a patsy and take the fall through some huge lie or plot to get rid of him. He won’t resign willingly. He is in safe position in the party apparatus and they would not risk him shooting his mouth off and defecting and sinking the Obama\Clinton ticket
3. Adding Clinton does’nt automatically add to his vote totals and plus him picking her would make him look vacillating and transparent and is way to risky a strategy.
4. Hillary is a loser just like Obama and Loser+Loser != Winner. She brings out a whole other layer of hatred in the Republican base. She is shrill, wild eyed and prone to losing it.
I agree with Collins blog, this deal is over September 30th and the DEM party will focus on keeping territory they currently own, the Senate and House. Like Rush said..”A Black Marxists from the Chicago corrupt political machine...good luck with that.”
Polling released earlier today shows McCain gaining ground in the traditionally blue state of Washington. Obamas lead is down to just two percentage points. Rasmussen Markets data now shows gave McCain to be a slight favorite for victory in November. These figures are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants and currently give McCain a 51.7 % chance of victory. Expectations for Obama are at 46.6 %. Prior to this past week, expectations for a Democratic victory had generally been in the 60% range.
Rasmussen polling has a margin of error of +/- 4.5%. When he reports Obama has 49% in Washington, that means it could be as low as 44.5%, and as high as 53.5%. McCain's 47% means that it could be as low as 42.5%, and as high as 51.5%.
If you stack these ranges side-by-side, you'll see that Obama has an uncontested zone where he wins outright, and a larger zone where either candidate could be ahead. The uncontested zone increases as the separation increases.
If you simulated an election by randomizing a number between the +/- ranges of margin of error, and then giving the win to the candidate with the higher random number, you'd see the real impact of a 2% spread in the poll result.
Look at the probabilities of winning for each point of separation in a poll with a 4.5% margin of error:
I'd say that a 2% difference that results in a 69% chance of actually winning is not a statistical tie. Am I wrong?
In its most recent poll, Rasmussen has Obama leading McCain in Washington State by only 49%-47% (and Dino Rossi leading the RAT Gregoire by 6%). This is confirmation (and then some) of the Survey USA poll from a couple of days ago that showed McCain cutting Obama’s WA lead to only 4% (49%-45%) and Rossi taking a narrow lead. http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2077844/posts
If WA is this close, so must be California (President Bush got only 1.28% less in CA than in WA in 2004, and CAs demographics are actually a bit tougher for Obama than WAs demographics because Obama doesnt do as well with Hispanic and Jewish voters as with other Democrats). I can’t wait for the next poll out of CA to come out; if it shows McCain within 3%-5% of Obama, as may well be the case, liberals’ heads will explode.
There’s a real chance that McCain/Palin may end up winning over 400 electoral vote and Obama will be remembered as this generation’s Michael Dukakis. However, we need to keep fighting for the next 53 (or whatever) days and not take and votes for granted.
As CM55 says. The Dems have bought their ticket, now they shall take their ride.
Next up - Illinois! :-D
The marriage issue on the ballot in California has to be good for a one or two points extra for McCain-Palin.
I notice there are only three Oregon polls. One from Feb (throw out), two from early August. One (SUSA) has the Obamessiah 48-45 (pretty consistent with final results in 2004), while the other (Ras) has The One 52-42. Both were obviously pre-Palin and pre-convention.
Absolutely, OR would be in play even if WA wasn’t this close. I didn’t mention OR because the WA poll suggests that even CA is in play, and that McCain/Palin could get 400 EVs. If WA is decided by 2% on Election Day, McCain/Palin will win in an Electoral College landslide.
It polled 600 RVs. Has Obama up 46-39%, w/third parties pulling only 2%. That seems like a very high number of undecideds. Break out was 46% Dem, 35% GOP, 20% independent. A +11 differential for a state this close the past two Presidential elections is not very realistic. Especially with the strong GOP voter identification surge. I view this poll rather suspiciously.
It should be, but it hasn't been in any "swing state" discussions as far as polls, campaign strategy, etc. And I'm guilty of ignoring it like most everyone else.
If WA is decided by 2% on Election Day, McCain/Palin will win in an Electoral College landslide.
If McCain-Palin even comes close to winning Washington State, many “journalists” will be crying. Dare I dream of a landslide?
In 2004, OR voted approximately 7% more Democratic than the national average. Kerry won by 4.16%, while Bush won nationally by 2.7%. Given all this, I suspect that the race in Oregon is closer than 7 points, but Obama probably still has a slight lead.
Hey, if McCain is winning or ahead in Oregon, he’s winning every other close battleground state as well, including OH, MI, PA, WI, even MN.
Fantastic, especially re: Rossi
I still am sceptical WA will turn GOP. But this result would at least give encouragement that known swing states will swing GOP.
The Rossi poll excites me more. Rossi won before and had it stolen after three counts. We need the vote to be greater this time to overcome the fraud in King County.
Is he raising the fruad that occurred 4 years ago? I sure hope he’s pounding that home