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New Rasmussen Poll: McCain/Obama statistically tied in Washington; Rossi up 6
Rasmussen Reports ^

Posted on 09/12/2008 9:56:01 AM PDT by swmopatriot

WA: Obama 49, McCain 47 Gregoire 46 Rossi 52

(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...


TOPICS: Front Page News; Politics/Elections; US: Washington
KEYWORDS: 2008polls; electiongovernor; electionpresident; gregoire; mccainpalin; rossi; wa2008
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If Obama can't win Washington, it is over for him. This is very good news and should force him to continue shifting resources from states which he has tried unsuccessfully to target (i.e. GA, MT, NC, IN) to defending states which he must win.

Rossi leading incumbent Democratic Governor Gregoire is also great news. We need to make sure he wins by a solid margin this time, so there isn't a repeat of 2004.

1 posted on 09/12/2008 9:56:01 AM PDT by swmopatriot
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To: sionnsar

WA ping!


2 posted on 09/12/2008 9:58:02 AM PDT by SandyInSeattle (Go, Sonics! And take the Mariners with you.)
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To: swmopatriot

This is awesome! The prospect of McCain-Palin winning Washington is incredible! And it will be even better if Rossi can unseat Governor Gregoire. Things are looking better by the day!!!

McCain-Palin’08!!!


3 posted on 09/12/2008 9:59:32 AM PDT by wk4bush2004
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To: swmopatriot

Wow! This is not following the MSM play book. I love it when things don’t follow the MSM playbook.


4 posted on 09/12/2008 10:02:27 AM PDT by 6SJ7 (Welcome PUMAs!)
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To: All

This shows closure. Not a lead. Eyes on the prize. Win the battlegrounds. Flip Wisconsin. Flip Pennsylvania. Hold Nevada. Hold New Mexico.

Do that and the victory is won.


5 posted on 09/12/2008 10:02:36 AM PDT by Owen
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To: swmopatriot

You should never refer to Gregoire as “Governor.” That election was stolen.


6 posted on 09/12/2008 10:04:06 AM PDT by iowamark
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To: swmopatriot

The consensus view a couple of months ago was that Gregoire was going to win the governorship in a cake walk. What’s happened to change that? The Indian casino debacle or something else?


7 posted on 09/12/2008 10:05:51 AM PDT by Steve_Stifler
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Comment #8 Removed by Moderator

To: swmopatriot

Guys, anything can happen before the election. Keep focused.


9 posted on 09/12/2008 10:06:03 AM PDT by I still care (A thousand screaming Germans, some fake columns and swooning girly-men does not a campaign make.)
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To: swmopatriot
Does anyone know how much money 0bama has spent so far? I've heard $300 million. Given that he has not been running TV ads until recently, this suggests a very large organization of paid workers.

Now he is apparently having fund raising issues AND is being forced to enter into an expensive ad campaign in states that he didn't expect to.

Point is, he's created a giant paid staff that he either has to keep paying or he has to let them go, something that liberals hate to do. Will they stay if they aren't being paid? I doubt that many will. And what will the effect be publicly and on his ground campaign.

He no doubt had built up his ground team in states he wanted to challenge, such as GA, but which are now dominantly McCain. Is he ready in MI?

0bama must have a lot on his mind these days.

10 posted on 09/12/2008 10:08:00 AM PDT by SampleMan (Community Organizer: What liberals do when they run out of college, before they run out of Marxism.)
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To: swmopatriot
Don't underestimate the ability of Seattle/King County liberals to swing the election by vote fraud - as was done in 2004.

See This Free Republic Thread

11 posted on 09/12/2008 10:08:21 AM PDT by poindexters brother
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To: HairOfTheDog; Ramius; ecurbh; RosieCotton

pingage


12 posted on 09/12/2008 10:10:08 AM PDT by Corin Stormhands (Community Organizers for McCain-Palin now at http://www.cafepress.com/writeside)
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To: AdmSmith; Berosus; Convert from ECUSA; dervish; Ernest_at_the_Beach; Fred Nerks; george76; ...

have a great day (and weekend!) all.

Breaking Rasmussen:
Michigan 51/46 Obama,Wyoming 58/39 McCain
Rasmussen
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Posted on 09/11/2008 10:05:10 PM PDT by neverdem
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2080554/posts


13 posted on 09/12/2008 10:12:26 AM PDT by SunkenCiv (https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/_______Profile hasn't been updated since Friday, May 30, 2008)
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To: I still care

Acorn and lawyers will have a say about this.


14 posted on 09/12/2008 10:12:33 AM PDT by Sybeck1 (I would rather be water-boarded than vote for John McCain......)
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To: SampleMan
Given that he has not been running TV ads until recently, this suggests a very large organization of paid workers.
...and they're paid by ABC, CBS, and especially MSNBC, along with some 527s. :')
15 posted on 09/12/2008 10:14:01 AM PDT by SunkenCiv (https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/_______Profile hasn't been updated since Friday, May 30, 2008)
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To: swmopatriot
The numbers for Rossi look great. I hope they hold up. Maybe he will be re-elected (he really won in ‘04), and kick Fraudoire’s thieving butt out of Olympia once and for all.
16 posted on 09/12/2008 10:16:32 AM PDT by chimera
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To: swmopatriot

I’m near Bellingham and have not been able to get any Rossi or McCain signs from the local GOP HQ.

Is anybody else in WA having a similar problem?


17 posted on 09/12/2008 10:17:32 AM PDT by proudpapa (McCain - Palin'08)
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To: swmopatriot
Go Washington!!!

But remember, ignore the polls. Work like you're down 6, not up 6.
18 posted on 09/12/2008 10:21:38 AM PDT by Antoninus (McCain/Palin -- The winning ticket!)
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To: Sybeck1

sniff sniff -


19 posted on 09/12/2008 10:22:11 AM PDT by maine-iac7 (No trees were killed in sending this message but a lot of electrons were terribly agitated)
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To: swmopatriot
Disarray in the Democrat national committee must be getting to the point where morale is so low that the rats are turning on each other and a will not long be able to conceal their desperation from their own drones or from the public.

Scapegoats will have to be found and publicly executed. Intraparty discipline must be at the breaking point. As down ticket candidates begin to understand that, forget coattails, Obama is an anchor in any district where the issue is close, they will begin to distance themselves first passively and physically, then openly with public criticism.

The interest groups like the teachers union, the government Union, the feminists, environmentalists, the gays, virtually all of them except the African-Americans, will demand that " something be done." First lone voices, then a chorus, then an orchestrated cry will become irresistible.

We're approaching the moment of maximum danger when Hillary is added to the ticket.


20 posted on 09/12/2008 10:23:24 AM PDT by nathanbedford ("Attack, repeat attack!" Bull Halsey)
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To: Corin Stormhands

Been a few threads on this already...

I was actually one of the ones polled for this. That’s what changed it :~)


21 posted on 09/12/2008 10:24:48 AM PDT by HairOfTheDog
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To: swmopatriot

You need Washington’s 11 electoral votes, Obama, but they are slipping away.


22 posted on 09/12/2008 10:25:34 AM PDT by Califelephant (If only Sarah Palin had some Community Organizer experience.)
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To: Owen

Owen, erosion in WA, one of the bluest of blue states, shows that your battlegrounds are going to flip or be held as well.


23 posted on 09/12/2008 10:27:35 AM PDT by Don'tMessWithTexas
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To: nathanbedford
Only if she can select her own running mate. She will NEVER play second fiddle to someone else. Either she gets to be President or nothing. I can't think of any reason why Hillary would settle for less than The Prize. Would you?

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

24 posted on 09/12/2008 10:29:23 AM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: SampleMan
Great point. It will be interesting to see where he closes down operations and which states get the big ad buys. If Obama had good fundraising totals in August we would have heard about it by now, which means that he is probably running low on cash. I agree with you that he has a massive staff and there's no way he's going to be able to keep all of them. If he lets them go the psychological impact alone from the media reporting could give the GOP another 1-2% at the polls.
25 posted on 09/12/2008 10:35:36 AM PDT by aegiscg47
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To: swmopatriot

Palin may help in Washington due its proximity to Alaska. There’s a lot of AK to WA transplants.


26 posted on 09/12/2008 10:36:31 AM PDT by Chet 99 (http://www.mccainpalinvictory2008.com/)
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To: swmopatriot

A new poll shows barack mcgovern just + 2 in Washington. I guess it is true that he is like a burning tire around the neck of down ballot democrats. This is great news!


27 posted on 09/12/2008 10:40:01 AM PDT by jmaroneps37 (Conservatism is truth. Liberalism is lies.)
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To: nathanbedford

Hillary is not stupid.

There is NO WAY she is going to try to cushion his fall.

He made his bed, he’ll have to lie in it.


28 posted on 09/12/2008 10:50:31 AM PDT by Keith (McCain-Palin Get off your duff and work to get them elected!)
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To: swmopatriot

I’m in a Seattle suburb. A few days ago, a couple of guys in their early 20s came around campaigning for Rossi. Never had a Republican campaigner visit before.


29 posted on 09/12/2008 10:53:16 AM PDT by shteebo
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To: Chet 99

There are a lot of small-’C’ “conservative” Californian expatriates that have moved to WA state in recent years too.


30 posted on 09/12/2008 10:55:10 AM PDT by The KG9 Kid
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To: goldstategop; Keith
In 1960 they said that Lyndon Johnson and Jack Kennedy would never occupy the same ticket if for no other reason than Bobby Kennedy wouldn't stand for it.

It is almost impossible to know what might motivate Bitch Clinton in her calculations. She will have considered that nearly a third of modern vice presidents go on to be president.

That is, if they win. If they don't win, she is virtually the automatic nominee in 2012. I do not suggest that these arguments are conclusive but they are certainly persuasive and no one can guarantee that Hillary will not go for it.


31 posted on 09/12/2008 10:58:16 AM PDT by nathanbedford ("Attack, repeat attack!" Bull Halsey)
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To: swmopatriot

If Obama can’t win Washington, it is over for him.

__

He can’t and it is.

Washington is part of my landslide scenario. Some of these shifts have moved so fast that they only need to keep moving at glacier speed to ensure victory.

HOUSE OF REPS in play-—BIG TIME.


32 posted on 09/12/2008 11:03:09 AM PDT by word_warrior_bob (You can now see my amazing doggie and new puppy on my homepage!! Come say hello to Jake & Sonny)
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To: swmopatriot

LOL !!! What if Nobama won NM(5) and NV(5) and LOST WA(11) [I think those numbers are right]. That would still be a net loss of minus 1 !!!


33 posted on 09/12/2008 11:09:28 AM PDT by 11th_VA (The smart liberals are worried, the dumb ones think they've already won ...)
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To: iowamark

I agree it was stolen and the reason Rossi is on top now is that he handled like a gentlemen. No whining, no claims of thievery, no name calling.

The people of Washington State know what happened and it may just be a different story this time.


34 posted on 09/12/2008 11:09:39 AM PDT by 101voodoo
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To: nathanbedford

I can’t imagine any scenario where Hillary could be on the ticket now. Here is why.

1. If she was on the ticket she would have to wait till 2016 when she will be in her 70’s.

2. Joe Biden will never be a patsy and take the fall through some huge lie or plot to get rid of him. He won’t resign willingly. He is in safe position in the party apparatus and they would not risk him shooting his mouth off and defecting and sinking the Obama\Clinton ticket

3. Adding Clinton does’nt automatically add to his vote totals and plus him picking her would make him look vacillating and transparent and is way to risky a strategy.

4. Hillary is a loser just like Obama and Loser+Loser != Winner. She brings out a whole other layer of hatred in the Republican base. She is shrill, wild eyed and prone to losing it.

I agree with Collins blog, this deal is over September 30th and the DEM party will focus on keeping territory they currently own, the Senate and House. Like Rush said..”A Black Marxists from the Chicago corrupt political machine...good luck with that.”


35 posted on 09/12/2008 11:11:05 AM PDT by pburgh01
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To: swmopatriot
From Rasmussen Reports...

Polling released earlier today shows McCain gaining ground in the traditionally blue state of Washington. Obama’s lead is down to just two percentage points. Rasmussen Markets data now shows gave McCain to be a slight favorite for victory in November. These figures are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants and currently give McCain a 51.7 % chance of victory. Expectations for Obama are at 46.6 %. Prior to this past week, expectations for a Democratic victory had generally been in the 60% range.

36 posted on 09/12/2008 11:11:25 AM PDT by SuperSonic (Bush "lied", people dyed.......their fingers purple.)
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To: swmopatriot
I'm not sure about the repeated use of the phrase "statistically tied." There is a real difference between the results. Let me demonstrate.

Rasmussen polling has a margin of error of +/- 4.5%. When he reports Obama has 49% in Washington, that means it could be as low as 44.5%, and as high as 53.5%. McCain's 47% means that it could be as low as 42.5%, and as high as 51.5%.

If you stack these ranges side-by-side, you'll see that Obama has an uncontested zone where he wins outright, and a larger zone where either candidate could be ahead. The uncontested zone increases as the separation increases.

If you simulated an election by randomizing a number between the +/- ranges of margin of error, and then giving the win to the candidate with the higher random number, you'd see the real impact of a 2% spread in the poll result.

Look at the probabilities of winning for each point of separation in a poll with a 4.5% margin of error:

I'd say that a 2% difference that results in a 69% chance of actually winning is not a statistical tie. Am I wrong?

-PJ

37 posted on 09/12/2008 11:18:21 AM PDT by Political Junkie Too (You can never over-estimate the Democrats' ability to overplay their hand.)
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To: swmopatriot; fieldmarshaldj; Kuksool; Clintonfatigued; JohnnyZ; Clemenza; Coop; Impy; ...

In its most recent poll, Rasmussen has Obama leading McCain in Washington State by only 49%-47% (and Dino Rossi leading the RAT Gregoire by 6%). This is confirmation (and then some) of the Survey USA poll from a couple of days ago that showed McCain cutting Obama’s WA lead to only 4% (49%-45%) and Rossi taking a narrow lead. http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2077844/posts

If WA is this close, so must be California (President Bush got only 1.28% less in CA than in WA in 2004, and CA’s demographics are actually a bit tougher for Obama than WA’s demographics because Obama doesn’t do as well with Hispanic and Jewish voters as with other Democrats). I can’t wait for the next poll out of CA to come out; if it shows McCain within 3%-5% of Obama, as may well be the case, liberals’ heads will explode.

There’s a real chance that McCain/Palin may end up winning over 400 electoral vote and Obama will be remembered as this generation’s Michael Dukakis. However, we need to keep fighting for the next 53 (or whatever) days and not take and votes for granted.


38 posted on 09/12/2008 11:41:00 AM PDT by AuH2ORepublican (Fred Thompson appears human-sized because he is actually standing a million miles away.)
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To: Keith; ConservativeMan55
Hillary is not stupid. There is NO WAY she is going to try to cushion his fall. He made his bed, he’ll have to lie in it.

As CM55 says. The Dems have bought their ticket, now they shall take their ride.

39 posted on 09/12/2008 11:49:28 AM PDT by NeoCaveman (Annoy the media, end the Obamanation, vote maverick, McCain/Palin '08; Free Laz; Drill baby drill)
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To: AuH2ORepublican
I can’t wait for the next poll out of CA to come out; if it shows McCain within 3%-5% of Obama, as may well be the case, liberals’ heads will explode.

Next up - Illinois! :-D

40 posted on 09/12/2008 11:52:48 AM PDT by impeachedrapist (On Free Republic PBD [political bipolar disorder] rules!)
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To: AuH2ORepublican
WA is this close, so must be California (President Bush got only 1.28% less in CA than in WA in 2004, and CA’s demographics are actually a bit tougher for Obama than WA’s demographics because Obama doesn’t do as well with Hispanic and Jewish voters as with other Democrats)

The marriage issue on the ballot in California has to be good for a one or two points extra for McCain-Palin.

41 posted on 09/12/2008 12:00:51 PM PDT by NeoCaveman (Annoy the media, end the Obamanation, vote maverick, McCain/Palin '08; Free Laz; Drill baby drill)
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To: AuH2ORepublican
Seriously, if WA (Kerry won by 8 pts, Gore won by ~6 pts) is as close as it seems to be, then Oregon (Kerry by 4 pts, Gore by 1/2 pt) is definitely in play as well. And that will be a much cheaper advertising market then Cali.

I notice there are only three Oregon polls. One from Feb (throw out), two from early August. One (SUSA) has the Obamessiah 48-45 (pretty consistent with final results in 2004), while the other (Ras) has The One 52-42. Both were obviously pre-Palin and pre-convention.

42 posted on 09/12/2008 12:18:08 PM PDT by impeachedrapist (On Free Republic PBD [political bipolar disorder] rules!)
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To: impeachedrapist

Absolutely, OR would be in play even if WA wasn’t this close. I didn’t mention OR because the WA poll suggests that even CA is in play, and that McCain/Palin could get 400 EVs. If WA is decided by 2% on Election Day, McCain/Palin will win in an Electoral College landslide.


43 posted on 09/12/2008 12:25:08 PM PDT by AuH2ORepublican (Fred Thompson appears human-sized because he is actually standing a million miles away.)
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To: AuH2ORepublican; fieldmarshaldj; LS; kesg
Here's a current OR poll. Never heard of the polling firm. Click here

It polled 600 RVs. Has Obama up 46-39%, w/third parties pulling only 2%. That seems like a very high number of undecideds. Break out was 46% Dem, 35% GOP, 20% independent. A +11 differential for a state this close the past two Presidential elections is not very realistic. Especially with the strong GOP voter identification surge. I view this poll rather suspiciously.

44 posted on 09/12/2008 12:29:18 PM PDT by impeachedrapist (On Free Republic PBD [political bipolar disorder] rules!)
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To: AuH2ORepublican
OR would be in play even if WA wasn’t this close.

It should be, but it hasn't been in any "swing state" discussions as far as polls, campaign strategy, etc. And I'm guilty of ignoring it like most everyone else.

If WA is decided by 2% on Election Day, McCain/Palin will win in an Electoral College landslide.

Agreed.

45 posted on 09/12/2008 12:33:27 PM PDT by impeachedrapist (On Free Republic PBD [political bipolar disorder] rules!)
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To: swmopatriot

If McCain-Palin even comes close to winning Washington State, many “journalists” will be crying. Dare I dream of a landslide?


46 posted on 09/12/2008 12:41:47 PM PDT by Repeal 16-17 (Let me know when the Shooting starts.)
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To: impeachedrapist

In 2004, OR voted approximately 7% more Democratic than the national average. Kerry won by 4.16%, while Bush won nationally by 2.7%. Given all this, I suspect that the race in Oregon is closer than 7 points, but Obama probably still has a slight lead.

Hey, if McCain is winning or ahead in Oregon, he’s winning every other close battleground state as well, including OH, MI, PA, WI, even MN.


47 posted on 09/12/2008 12:51:23 PM PDT by kesg
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To: swmopatriot

Fantastic, especially re: Rossi


48 posted on 09/12/2008 1:13:08 PM PDT by NYC Republican (Infuriate the MSM- vote for Palin/McCain)
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To: swmopatriot

I still am sceptical WA will turn GOP. But this result would at least give encouragement that known swing states will swing GOP.

The Rossi poll excites me more. Rossi won before and had it stolen after three counts. We need the vote to be greater this time to overcome the fraud in King County.


49 posted on 09/12/2008 1:55:32 PM PDT by Soul Seeker
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To: shteebo

Is he raising the fruad that occurred 4 years ago? I sure hope he’s pounding that home


50 posted on 09/12/2008 2:16:58 PM PDT by NYC Republican (Infuriate the MSM- vote for Palin/McCain)
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