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New Rasmussen Poll: McCain/Obama statistically tied in Washington; Rossi up 6
Rasmussen Reports ^

Posted on 09/12/2008 9:56:01 AM PDT by swmopatriot

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To: AuH2ORepublican
WA is this close, so must be California (President Bush got only 1.28% less in CA than in WA in 2004, and CA’s demographics are actually a bit tougher for Obama than WA’s demographics because Obama doesn’t do as well with Hispanic and Jewish voters as with other Democrats)

The marriage issue on the ballot in California has to be good for a one or two points extra for McCain-Palin.

41 posted on 09/12/2008 12:00:51 PM PDT by NeoCaveman (Annoy the media, end the Obamanation, vote maverick, McCain/Palin '08; Free Laz; Drill baby drill)
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To: AuH2ORepublican
Seriously, if WA (Kerry won by 8 pts, Gore won by ~6 pts) is as close as it seems to be, then Oregon (Kerry by 4 pts, Gore by 1/2 pt) is definitely in play as well. And that will be a much cheaper advertising market then Cali.

I notice there are only three Oregon polls. One from Feb (throw out), two from early August. One (SUSA) has the Obamessiah 48-45 (pretty consistent with final results in 2004), while the other (Ras) has The One 52-42. Both were obviously pre-Palin and pre-convention.

42 posted on 09/12/2008 12:18:08 PM PDT by impeachedrapist (On Free Republic PBD [political bipolar disorder] rules!)
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To: impeachedrapist

Absolutely, OR would be in play even if WA wasn’t this close. I didn’t mention OR because the WA poll suggests that even CA is in play, and that McCain/Palin could get 400 EVs. If WA is decided by 2% on Election Day, McCain/Palin will win in an Electoral College landslide.


43 posted on 09/12/2008 12:25:08 PM PDT by AuH2ORepublican (Fred Thompson appears human-sized because he is actually standing a million miles away.)
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To: AuH2ORepublican; fieldmarshaldj; LS; kesg
Here's a current OR poll. Never heard of the polling firm. Click here

It polled 600 RVs. Has Obama up 46-39%, w/third parties pulling only 2%. That seems like a very high number of undecideds. Break out was 46% Dem, 35% GOP, 20% independent. A +11 differential for a state this close the past two Presidential elections is not very realistic. Especially with the strong GOP voter identification surge. I view this poll rather suspiciously.

44 posted on 09/12/2008 12:29:18 PM PDT by impeachedrapist (On Free Republic PBD [political bipolar disorder] rules!)
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To: AuH2ORepublican
OR would be in play even if WA wasn’t this close.

It should be, but it hasn't been in any "swing state" discussions as far as polls, campaign strategy, etc. And I'm guilty of ignoring it like most everyone else.

If WA is decided by 2% on Election Day, McCain/Palin will win in an Electoral College landslide.

Agreed.

45 posted on 09/12/2008 12:33:27 PM PDT by impeachedrapist (On Free Republic PBD [political bipolar disorder] rules!)
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To: swmopatriot

If McCain-Palin even comes close to winning Washington State, many “journalists” will be crying. Dare I dream of a landslide?


46 posted on 09/12/2008 12:41:47 PM PDT by Repeal 16-17 (Let me know when the Shooting starts.)
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To: impeachedrapist

In 2004, OR voted approximately 7% more Democratic than the national average. Kerry won by 4.16%, while Bush won nationally by 2.7%. Given all this, I suspect that the race in Oregon is closer than 7 points, but Obama probably still has a slight lead.

Hey, if McCain is winning or ahead in Oregon, he’s winning every other close battleground state as well, including OH, MI, PA, WI, even MN.


47 posted on 09/12/2008 12:51:23 PM PDT by kesg
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To: swmopatriot

Fantastic, especially re: Rossi


48 posted on 09/12/2008 1:13:08 PM PDT by NYC Republican (Infuriate the MSM- vote for Palin/McCain)
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To: swmopatriot

I still am sceptical WA will turn GOP. But this result would at least give encouragement that known swing states will swing GOP.

The Rossi poll excites me more. Rossi won before and had it stolen after three counts. We need the vote to be greater this time to overcome the fraud in King County.


49 posted on 09/12/2008 1:55:32 PM PDT by Soul Seeker
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To: shteebo

Is he raising the fruad that occurred 4 years ago? I sure hope he’s pounding that home


50 posted on 09/12/2008 2:16:58 PM PDT by NYC Republican (Infuriate the MSM- vote for Palin/McCain)
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To: AuH2ORepublican; fieldmarshaldj; Kuksool; Norman Bates; LdSentinal; ExTexasRedhead; ...

THANK YOU SARAH PALIN!!!!!!


51 posted on 09/12/2008 3:56:28 PM PDT by Clintonfatigued (If Islam conquers the world, the Earth will be at peace because the human race will be killed off.)
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To: swmopatriot

Well, I don’t see how Rossi wins and McCain doesn’t. That just doesn’t fly.


52 posted on 09/12/2008 8:48:55 PM PDT by LS ("Castles made of sand, fall in the sea . . . eventually." (Hendrix))
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To: swmopatriot; AuH2ORepublican; fieldmarshaldj; Publius; sionnsar

WATCH CLOSELY: Pierce, Snohomish, and southern King Counties. I predict that both Rossi AND McCain will carry Snohomish (it was Rossi/Kerry in 2004). If Obama loses places like Kent and Federal Way in southern King County, and the outer towns of Pierce while only drawing 60% or less in Tacoma proper, he is toast.


53 posted on 09/13/2008 12:45:39 AM PDT by Clemenza (Barack Obama: Black and White and RED all Over)
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To: swmopatriot

I simply can’t believe that Rossi is that far ahead in Washington, but I’d love to be wrong. This place is a socialist hellhole.


54 posted on 09/13/2008 12:47:32 AM PDT by Junior_G
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To: kesg

Mail-in voting kills us in Oregon. The “wake and bake” crowd may not have the energy to crawl out of bed and hit the polling place, but they know how to affix a stamp and get their only sober buddy to drop it in the mailbox.


55 posted on 09/13/2008 12:49:17 AM PDT by Clemenza (Barack Obama: Black and White and RED all Over)
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To: proudpapa
I’m near Bellingham

I'm sure you can smell the old hippies from where you are.

56 posted on 09/13/2008 12:50:52 AM PDT by Clemenza (Barack Obama: Black and White and RED all Over)
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To: LS
>> Well, I don’t see how Rossi wins and McCain doesn’t. That just doesn’t fly. << <<

It does fly. Rossi is already more popular than McCain in the state. When McCain was trailing Obama by double digits, Rossi was in a statistical dead heat with Gregorie. There are alot of independedants in Washington that were going to vote for Rossi regardless because they know he won last time and Gregorie stole it.

With Palin on the ticket, she's having a coattail effect and getting some people (mostly Hillary-leaning moderate females) who normally don't vote Republican to cross over and vote GOP this time around to "punish" the Dems. (perhaps they're going to vote straight GOP out of spite, the opposite effect some bozos had in 2006) They're boosting McCain's numbers, and they're boosting Rossi's too. So McCain is going from his former margin of 43% to now gettting 48%, while Rossi goes from his former margin of 47% to now getting 52%.

57 posted on 09/13/2008 2:22:33 AM PDT by BillyBoy (Operation Chaos - Phase 1: Hillary Phase 2: Palin)
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To: impeachedrapist

Don’t tease me. A martian invasion is probably more likely.


58 posted on 09/13/2008 3:21:10 AM PDT by Impy (Spellcheck hates Obama, you should too.)
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To: Libertina; cherry; SatinDoll; lilycicero; E. Cartman; Grunthor; lonevoice; Fractal Trader; ...
Thanks to SandyInSeattle for the ping.

Photo Sharing and Video Hosting at Photobucket
Say WA? Evergreen State ping

FReepmail sionnsar if you want on or off this ping list.

Ping sionnsar if you see a Washington state related thread.

59 posted on 09/13/2008 10:48:14 AM PDT by sionnsar (Obama?Bye-den!|Iran Azadi|5yst3m 0wn3d-it's N0t Y0ur5 (SONY)| The New WSJ Magazine is disgusting)
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To: Libertina; cherry; SatinDoll; lilycicero; E. Cartman; Grunthor; lonevoice; Fractal Trader; ...
Thanks to Clintonfatigued for the ping.

Photo Sharing and Video Hosting at Photobucket
Say WA? Evergreen State ping

FReepmail sionnsar if you want on or off this ping list.

Ping sionnsar if you see a Washington state related thread.

60 posted on 09/13/2008 10:49:33 AM PDT by sionnsar (Obama?Bye-den!|Iran Azadi|5yst3m 0wn3d-it's N0t Y0ur5 (SONY)| The New WSJ Magazine is disgusting)
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