Posted on 09/12/2008 6:31:57 PM PDT by TigerLikesRooster
'Oligarchy May Dominate Post-Kim Jong-il Era'
By Kim Sue-young
Staff Reporter
Amid mounting speculation over the health condition of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il, an expert in inter-Korean relations said Thursday a small group of the elite or a military clique could take over the reclusive state.
Cheong Seong-chang, director of the inter-Korean relations studies program at the Sejong Institute, said a power shift is a likely scenario in the post-Kim era.
``Kim is the only person who can tune differences among major state organizations,'' Cheong told The Korea Times. ``Thus, if he dies appointing no successor, the situation would be complicated.''
Some high-ranking officials could presumably fight to seize power and the person who can receive the most support from political parties and dominate the military would stand as the next ``Dear Leader,'' he added.
Cheong listed Kim Yong-nam, nominal No. 2 leader and ceremonial head of state, and Jang Song-taek, husband of Kim Jong-il's sister, and an official of the ruling Workers' Party as viable candidates.
(Excerpt) Read more at koreatimes.co.kr ...
Ping!
I guess all good things must come to an end. My bet is watch what China does. They got a stake in what happens here.
This is the usual transition pattern in a communist country: an oligarchy until someone emerges as predominant or the entire rotten edifice falls. My guess is the latter unless the Chinese pick a candidate quickly and backs him with overwhelming economic and political support.
In a secret conference in Tokyo, an American and Chinese official meet:
AMERICAN: North Korea’s going to go Tango Uniform soon. We have to do something about it.
CHINESE: Agreed. When are you going to occupy the country?
AMERICAN: Us? North Korea’s closer to you! You occupy it!
CHINESE: No thank you, we already have enough undereducated, underfed and undereducated workers. You occupy it. It worked in Iran.
AMERICAN: Heck no! We have enough problems in Afghanistan and Pakistan! Come on, you owe us a big one...
CHINESE: On the contrary, YOU owe us a big one or two!
AMERICAN: Why don’t we let the South Koreans occupy the country?
CHINESE (snorting into his drink): Why do you think they’re not at this meeting? They saw what the Germans went through and said, “No thanks, honcho! We’ll unify fifty years from now!”
AMERICAN: Shoot.
American: It was very wise and thoughtful of you to move your citizens as far as possible from the NK border.
Chinese: Well considering the circumstances we had to. Thank you so much for dealing with our mutual problem.
American: We didn't do it lightly. Just be sure to tell your superiors that we'll do the same thing to any country we feel is a serious threat to our security.
Chinese: We understand. Once the radiation levels in NK are safe, we'll see what can be salvaged.
American: Thank you. And please remember, we have several thousand of those weapons still in our inventory.
Chinese: We know.
Who that going include Chia Pet second or third wife and sons LOL!
A council of officers. All Chinese officers.
Kim Jong-Ill?
Simply put, the center cannot hold in the DPRK without someone to carry the banner. That someone can't be a faceless cabal of generals. It needs to be a godlike face, a new embodiment of the State. Otherwise, North Korea will factionalize around whoever holds the most power in their region or and ministry, and collapse.
Right. It will disintegrate eventually, even though collective leadership could buy us time to control the fallout from its breakup.
Were I President, I'd already have envoys making the pitch to whoever's answering the phone up North.
"The DPRK, as such, has no future, gentlemen. But you do. There's no need to sink with the ship, when you can lead the crew ashore as heroes, and retire in honor and luxury. Am I right? So let's talk options."
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2080790/posts
......Another interesting angle to contemplate is that even senior officials are sensing that, one way or another, the regime is nearing its end soon. They have to think about their future after the current regime. First, it is possible that they won't survive if they lined up for the faction which could lose out later in power struggle triggered by succession intrigue. Second, even if they survive, they are afraid that the regime may not last long.
They have to find an insurance against future disaster which is quite likely. The obvious insurance is to ally with outside powers who can hold sway over the future of N. Korean state. They could be cultivating the channel to either China or S. Korea, and pass along useful information, solidifying their connection. That way, even if the current regime is gone, they can survive with the help of these countries.
That may be why there is a sudden surge of intelligence from the deep inside of N. Korean regime, right up to Kim Jong-il’s immediate surroundings.
In short, N. Korean power elites are choosing side both internally and externally. I think all these development would be quite disconcerting to Kim Jong-il. Quite a few of his underlings could be either informants or spies for China or S. Korea.
BINGO! WE HAVE A WINNER!!
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