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Virginia - Obama 50, McCain 46 (Survey USA)
Survey USA ^ | 9-15-08

Posted on 09/15/2008 12:52:45 PM PDT by Darren McCarty

If the election for President were today, would you vote for ... (choices rotated) Republican John McCain? Or, Democrat Barack Obama?

46% McCain (R)
50% Obama (D)
2% Other
2% Undecided

Virginia Men, Voters Age 50+, Independents, Take Another Look At Obama: In an election for President of the United States in Virginia today, 09/15/08, 7 weeks till votes are counted, Democrat Barack Obama defeats Republican John McCain 50% to 46%, according to this latest SurveyUSA poll conducted for WDBJ-TV in Roanoke, WJLA-TV in Washington DC, WTVR-TV in Richmond, and WJHL-TV in the Tri-Cities. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released one week ago, immediately following the Republican National Convention, Obama is up 3 points; McCain is down 3. The movement solidifies Virginia place as America's 2008 battleground. One week ago, McCain led among men by 11 points. Today, McCain and Obama tie. One week ago, McCain led among voters age 50+ by 14 points. Today, McCain leads by 1. One week ago, Obama led among lower income voters by 6 points. Today, Obama leads by 20. One week ago, McCain led among Independents by 21 points. Today, McCain leads by 4. 17% of Republicans today crossover to vote Democrat, up from 11% last week and 7% last month. 12% of Democrats cross over to vote Republican, compared with 10% in the two previous polls. Strikingly: week-on-week movement in the DC suburbs was to McCain; movement in the Shenandoah and Central VA was to Obama.

In Virginia, there is still no evidence that Sarah Palin is attracting women to the GOP ticket. McCain polled at 44% before he picked Palin, and at 43% in each of the two polls conducted after Palin was announced.

(Excerpt) Read more at surveyusa.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections; US: Virginia
KEYWORDS: 2008polls; electionpresident; mccainpalin; poll; surveyusa; susa; va2008; virginia
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SUSA has been the most democrat. Two recent polls, CNN has McCain by 4 and Rasmussed had McCain by 2.

This isn't over at all.

1 posted on 09/15/2008 12:52:46 PM PDT by Darren McCarty
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To: Darren McCarty
I just have to laugh at the Freepers who truly believe that McCain is going to walk away with this election, even talking in terms of a landslide. I have yet to see McCain get close to a solid Electoral majority, and I think it stays that way right up to Election Day.
2 posted on 09/15/2008 12:56:49 PM PDT by CatOwner
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To: Darren McCarty

Virginia for Obama with 50%? In his dreams!


3 posted on 09/15/2008 12:57:03 PM PDT by SolidWood (McCain/Palin 2008)
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To: Darren McCarty

One week ago, McCain led among men by 11 points. Today, McCain and Obama tie.
.
.

.

That’s nonsense. Noway is Obama tied with men.


4 posted on 09/15/2008 12:57:11 PM PDT by snarkytart
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To: Darren McCarty

Wilder effect. Obama is behind by 6-7 in VA at least


5 posted on 09/15/2008 12:57:24 PM PDT by NavVet ( If you don't defend Conservatism in the Primaries, you won't have it to defend in November)
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To: CatOwner

We haven’t even had debates yet.


6 posted on 09/15/2008 12:58:21 PM PDT by KansasGirl (READ MY LIPSTICK!!!)
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To: snarkytart

Of course I mean tied with MCCAIN.


7 posted on 09/15/2008 12:58:46 PM PDT by snarkytart
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To: Darren McCarty

Over at National Review, Geraghty explains the SUSA polled on Saturday and Sunday and missed the Churchgoers, and believes their own poll might be off by 5%


8 posted on 09/15/2008 12:59:43 PM PDT by Wilder Effect
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To: Darren McCarty

readem and weep newbie

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2082822/posts


9 posted on 09/15/2008 12:59:48 PM PDT by Lib-Lickers 2
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To: Darren McCarty

This poll smells fishy. Obama ties with men and 50+ folks, 17% of GOP votes Obama? Highly dubious.


10 posted on 09/15/2008 1:00:04 PM PDT by TheWasteLand
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To: NavVet

I agree, for those of you who like McCain, I think an state Obama does not poll +10%, McCain will win. I think racism is still that strong in the US

Oh how I wish we had a real candidate to vote for


11 posted on 09/15/2008 1:00:15 PM PDT by MoreGovLess (The USA has one main political party: the Kleptocrats)
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To: Wilder Effect

I thought someone said here once that all polling on weekends is done in the evenings?


12 posted on 09/15/2008 1:00:49 PM PDT by olivia3boys
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To: MoreGovLess

We do! Her name is Sarah Palin.


13 posted on 09/15/2008 1:01:27 PM PDT by KansasGirl (READ MY LIPSTICK!!!)
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To: Darren McCarty

It’s very flawed. They surveyed on Sunday when churchgoers were not home.

See this:

http://rightwingliberal.wordpress.com/2008/09/15/memo-to-survey-usa-stop-polling-on-sunday/


14 posted on 09/15/2008 1:01:33 PM PDT by Uncledave (Zombie Reagan '08)
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To: CatOwner
conducted for WDBJ-TV in Roanoke, WJLA-TV in Washington DC, WTVR-TV in Richmond, and WJHL-TV in the Tri-Cities

Anything grab your attention about this sampling?

15 posted on 09/15/2008 1:01:34 PM PDT by johniegrad
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To: Darren McCarty

Couple questions about this poll:
1) How do they weigh party ID?
2) What percentage of surveys were fielded by black operators?


16 posted on 09/15/2008 1:01:38 PM PDT by counterpunch (Jim Jones was a Community Organizer)
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To: CatOwner
I just have to laugh at the Freepers who truly believe that McCain is going to walk away with this election, even talking in terms of a landslide. I have yet to see McCain get close to a solid Electoral majority, and I think it stays that way right up to Election Day.

I think its alot of wishful thinking. Fact is, Obama will get 40% no matter WHAT he says, does, or is revealed about him.

This is going to be a dogfight, especially with the media so incessently bashing Palin, that has GOT to hurt. Black turnout is going to be historic, and I am not so sure there is going to be a big "Bradley" effect either.

17 posted on 09/15/2008 1:04:12 PM PDT by Paradox (Obama, the Audacity of Hype.)
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To: Darren McCarty

Bogus. I call BS alert.


18 posted on 09/15/2008 1:04:39 PM PDT by TommyDale (I) (Never forget the Republicans who voted for illegal immigrant amnesty in 2007!)
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To: CatOwner

Catowner, you are all over the place friend. You had McCain down 10% before the Conventions and were pretty gloomy.

The whole trend was for McCain to be close before the debates. Obama was destroyed by Hillary in their debates because he cannot think on his feet or without a teleprompter. He is a gaffe machine while McCain makes few mistakes.

McCain will be up a solid 5 to 7 after the first debate and then these tossups will fall in line.


19 posted on 09/15/2008 1:05:26 PM PDT by Wilder Effect
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To: Darren McCarty

It’s not over, to be sure, but this smells like an outlier.


20 posted on 09/15/2008 1:05:34 PM PDT by B Knotts (Calvin Coolidge Republican)
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To: Darren McCarty

When I get polled (it only hurts a bit) I tell them I’m voting for someone that I’m not voting for. It warms my heart to get Obama to waste money in VA because he thinks he’s doing better than he is. And then when they lose I love it even more.


21 posted on 09/15/2008 1:06:43 PM PDT by for-q-clinton (If at first you don't succeed keep on sucking until you do succeed)
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To: Darren McCarty

17% of Republicans jumped over to vote Democrat??????? WTF. These polls are going to make me crazy. Wish we were voting tomorrow.


22 posted on 09/15/2008 1:07:36 PM PDT by GoCards
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To: MoreGovLess
Not voting for Barack Hussein Obama means one is racist?

Pure sophistry.

23 posted on 09/15/2008 1:07:54 PM PDT by roses of sharon (The MSM vampires must die!)
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To: Darren McCarty
One week ago, McCain led among voters age 50+ by 14 points. Today, McCain leads by 1. One week ago, Obama led among lower income voters by 6 points. Today, Obama leads by 20. One week ago, McCain led among Independents by 21 points. Today, McCain leads by 4.

Does anyone else think these kinds of extreme swings reflect more on the SUSA methodology than actual voter opinion?

24 posted on 09/15/2008 1:08:00 PM PDT by montag813 (www.BoycottUsWeekly.com | Fight the Smears)
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To: MoreGovLess

It’s not racism that is behind the Bradley Effect, it is political correctness.
A candidate like 0bama, with his experience, qualifications, and liberal positions would be trailing McCain by 10+ points if he were white. The only reason why the polls don’t reflect that is because lots of white people would rather be seen as naive than be seen as not open minded. And then if they’re asked by a black pollster, then they definitely feel too uncomfortable to admit they’re not voting for the black guy.

By McCain putting Palin on the ticket, more people feel they can admit to voting for the ticket.


25 posted on 09/15/2008 1:08:21 PM PDT by counterpunch (Jim Jones was a Community Organizer)
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To: counterpunch
Tabs

Party ID
33 - GOP (80-17 McCain)
37 - Dem (87-17 Dem)
23 - Indy (48-44 GOP)

26 posted on 09/15/2008 1:08:28 PM PDT by Darren McCarty (Palin in 08)
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To: MoreGovLess

It’s not racism that is behind the Bradley Effect, it is political correctness.
A candidate like 0bama, with his experience, qualifications, and liberal positions would be trailing McCain by 10+ points if he were white. The only reason why the polls don’t reflect that is because lots of white people would rather be seen as naive than be seen as not open minded. And then if they’re asked by a black pollster, then they definitely feel too uncomfortable to admit they’re not voting for the black guy.

By McCain putting Palin on the ticket, more people feel they can admit to voting for the ticket.


27 posted on 09/15/2008 1:08:41 PM PDT by counterpunch (Jim Jones was a Community Organizer)
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To: Darren McCarty

This poll appears to skewed toward the DC suburbs.


28 posted on 09/15/2008 1:09:08 PM PDT by unspun (Mike Huckabee: Government's job is "protect us, not have to provide for us.")
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To: Darren McCarty

BS Cough Cough


29 posted on 09/15/2008 1:09:47 PM PDT by cw35
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To: Darren McCarty

On the 538 website, posters are still claiming that Obama will sweep Fla, Ga, NC and Va on the way to a landslide victory....Meanwhile, Obama is opening more and more offices in Kerry Blue States like Mi, Pa, Wis and Min where polls are nearly tied....Even DEEP DEEP blue NY is only 5% for Obama.


30 posted on 09/15/2008 1:09:47 PM PDT by keypro (Smell their fear)
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To: snarkytart
These are strange results. In a week that was very favorable for McCain, this poll shows him losing grouns across the board to Obambi in Virginia.

My guess is that the next SUSA poll of VA shows McCain back on top, but it will be interesting to see if other polls replicate these results in the Old Dominion.

31 posted on 09/15/2008 1:10:08 PM PDT by comebacknewt
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To: CatOwner

LOL! The McCain Palin ticket is just getting revved up! The media has spend 2 weeks trying to destroy Palin in front of an America with a two day attention span for BS arguments the media is throwing out about Palin.

PS. I know you don’t believe this, but probably 80% of America can identify with her with the BS this slug of an ex brother in law put the Palin family through.

Yes, Americans do agree with getting even, when the guy they want to get even with has it coming. You don’t taser a 10 year old stepson and not have the boy’s maternal family come after you in the America I know........


32 posted on 09/15/2008 1:10:11 PM PDT by HD1200
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To: CatOwner

Obama is doomed.

It is and will be a landslide for McCain


33 posted on 09/15/2008 1:10:25 PM PDT by lonestar67 (Its time to withdraw from the War on Bush-- your side is hopelessly lost in a quagmire.)
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To: CatOwner
Oh get real. This poll was taken on Sunday and undersamples churchgoers, which undersamples pro-life voters and conservative voters.

Check out The right-wing liberal.

34 posted on 09/15/2008 1:11:08 PM PDT by Corin Stormhands (Community Organizers for McCain-Palin now at http://www.cafepress.com/writeside)
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To: counterpunch
It’s not racism that is behind the Bradley Effect, it is political correctness.

Add to that the union member who suspects the poll caller to possibly be a canvasser from his union.

35 posted on 09/15/2008 1:11:08 PM PDT by unspun (Mike Huckabee: Government's job is "protect us, not have to provide for us.")
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To: comebacknewt

Nice try liberal. This last week was FAVORABLE to McCain?

Where and when? For two solid weeks the media has been trying to destroy sarah palin for the democratic party.

Again, nice try closet liberal.


36 posted on 09/15/2008 1:12:22 PM PDT by HD1200
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To: CatOwner

I think this will be a tough election for McCain to win. When I look over the electoral map at Real Clear Politics there just isn’t much left to pick up and certainly nothing he can lose. You add in the rabid media and it is going to be a real tough battle.

Lord help us if Obama wins. I have doubled my prayers at night, but mostly to ask for forgiveness for the terrible names I call the media all day.


37 posted on 09/15/2008 1:12:45 PM PDT by kezzek (MSM the vicious voice of the Left)
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To: HD1200

Say what?


38 posted on 09/15/2008 1:13:16 PM PDT by comebacknewt
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To: montag813

Swings like that just do not happen naturally in the absence of monumental events. It is almost certainly the result of methodological variance. That does not mean that one poll is more accurate than the other, just that there is an incongruity between the results well outside the norms of behavior and experience.


39 posted on 09/15/2008 1:13:44 PM PDT by andy58-in-nh (Somewhere in Illinois, a community is missing its organizer.)
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To: counterpunch

Great explanation of the Bradley Effect! Thank you.

Racism is not the same as political correctness. It’s really almost the opposite.


40 posted on 09/15/2008 1:13:59 PM PDT by olivia3boys
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To: Darren McCarty

Nobody polled me. I guess they know I’m voting Republican.


41 posted on 09/15/2008 1:14:22 PM PDT by 84rules ( Ooh-Rah! Semper Fi!)
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To: Darren McCarty

That is screwy. No way McCain is only getting 80% of Republican vote and Obama is getting 87% of the Democrat vote, yet Indies break GOP. No way.


42 posted on 09/15/2008 1:16:46 PM PDT by KansasGirl (READ MY LIPSTICK!!!)
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To: Darren McCarty

Check Intrade. Money don’t lie. McCain has gone from 44% to 52% in the last week.


43 posted on 09/15/2008 1:19:14 PM PDT by getitright (surrender aint peace)
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To: montag813

McCain’s got a western ticket and we are seeing a surge in Minnesota 45-45 and Washington State 49-47, both from six furlongs behind last month. This will start to tell in New Mexico and Colorado as well. He’s got white women coming over and so is in the game in Michigan and Pennsylvania and has even moved within five points in New York. Anything can happen particularly with the wild events on Wall Street, but McCain has got the whip hand in this race with the sharp-eyed Palin riding shotgun.


44 posted on 09/15/2008 1:19:23 PM PDT by idov
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To: unspun
This poll appears to skewed toward the DC suburbs.

Take a look at which television stations were involved in the polling. Then take a look at a list of the 10 largest cities in Virginia:Virginia Beach, 438,415; Norfolk, 231,954; Chesapeake, 218,968; Arlington, 195,965; Richmond, 193,777; Newport News, 179,899; Hampton, 145,579; Alexandria, 135,337; Portsmouth, 100,169; Roanoke, 92,631

Unless someone is polling Tidewater, then the results would not be surprising. Tidewater is made up of Virginia Beach, Norfolk, Chesapeake, Newport News, Hampton, and Portsmouth.

Guess who lives in Tidewater? Military, military, and more military.

No Tidewater television station is involved in this polling. Unless the other stations are polling Tidewater this would have to be considered a deliberate attempt to mislead the public.

Again, I don't know whether they polled Tidewater or not, but none of the stations are from that area.

45 posted on 09/15/2008 1:20:05 PM PDT by johniegrad
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To: snarkytart

No way they are even among men. This poll is BS. And if anyone thinks Obama is winning VA, they are dreaming.


46 posted on 09/15/2008 1:20:33 PM PDT by KC_Conspirator
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To: CatOwner
I see from your pings you seem to have a great interest in the polls. Is it a hobby or a profession? (Also, you sound as though you want McCain to lose. Are you an Obama supporter?) Check out Rove’s electoral college map. It has been changing over from undecided to red lately, including FL and others. VA, which was blue recently is now trending away from Obama, yet Obama has not picked up anything during the same period. The trend for the moment is quite clear and decisive, although much can happen in seven weeks.
47 posted on 09/15/2008 1:21:54 PM PDT by Melinda
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To: CatOwner

“”I just have to laugh at the Freepers who truly believe that McCain is going to walk away with this election, even talking in terms of a landslide. I have yet to see McCain get close to a solid Electoral majority, and I think it stays that way right up to Election Day. “”

I just have to laugh at the Freepers who truly believe that Obama has a chance in this election, even talking in terms that voter fraud by ACORN will make the differece.

I have yet to see any evidence Obama has nullified the Bradley/Dinkins/Wilder effect. In races for Governor black Demoracts underperform their polling numbers in general elections anywhere from 5-18% 95% of the time.

This election for President is even higher stakes, we are picking not only an executive but in essence a our tribal leader.

Save for a serious October surpise, like a video showing McCain in a KKK grand wizard outfit having sex with an underage black girl, the McCain/Palin campaign have this election in the bag.


48 posted on 09/15/2008 1:23:20 PM PDT by Reaganez
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To: counterpunch
Excellent Post. As someone else stated here, some Union members are afraid that the pollster is a part of his union. And Yes if Obama were White, Hillary would be the nominee.

I think the Bradley effect also kicks on the Muslim Question.
Obama would be wise to finally address this issue openly. It is not racist to say he has a Muslim middle name, because he does. The Media can call Palin White Trash, but we cannot say Hussein.

49 posted on 09/15/2008 1:23:42 PM PDT by Wilder Effect
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To: olivia3boys

Large numbers of people attend church on Sunday evening in the South.

The internals of this poll are absurd. There’s no way McCain is tied with Obama among men in Virginia, no way he leads by only one among voters over age 50, and no way Obama is getting 17% of the Republican vote in a southern state. He wouldn’t come close to getting that much even in a state like Vermont or Maine where many of the Republicans are moderates.


50 posted on 09/15/2008 1:24:50 PM PDT by puroresu (Enjoy ASIAN CINEMA? See my Freeper page for recommendations (updated!).)
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