Posted on 09/16/2008 1:30:41 PM PDT by Dawnsblood
The post-convention national polls mostly show John McCain with a small lead over Barack Obama. But what's been happening in the states? I've been looking at the post-convention state polls at realclearpolitics.com, pollster.com, and fivethirtyeight.com and find some significant differences from pre-convention polls. They tend to suggest that the battlefield is shifting, with more states within McCain's reach and fewer within Obama's.
Some caution is in order: We're talking about only one or two polls in some states but as many as eight in ultracritical Ohio. I haven't included the Zogby Internet polls in my analysis. I've rounded off the averages in each state to full percentages (and rounded 0.5s downwards for both candidates), and I'm reporting the difference between the McCain percentage and Obama percentage. Here's my analysis:
The big industrial states. Michigan and Pennsylvania are Obama +2, Ohio is McCain +3. In each case, McCain is 1 point better than Bush's final percentage against Kerry in each state. An old rule of American politics is that economic distress moves voters toward Democrats. Michigan, Ohio, and western Pennsylvania are in economic distress. But they haven't moved toward the Democratic nominee, as compared with 2004. The old rule isn't operating. Here's another possible rule. When voters see that tax increases aren't producing a better economy, they don't move toward a Democratic nominee who is proposing higher taxes, even though he says they'll hit only the rich. In Michigan, the Democrats (with a few turncoat Republicans) raised taxes in 2007; in Ohio, the Republicans (with some Democratic support) raised taxes before 2006. Those tax increases haven't helped those states' economies, not so as you'd notice, though they've helped members of public employees unions.
(Excerpt) Read more at usnews.com ...
“Here’s another possible rule. When voters see that tax increases aren’t producing a better economy, they don’t move toward a Democratic nominee who is proposing higher taxes, even though he says they’ll hit only the rich. In Michigan, the Democrats (with a few turncoat Republicans) raised taxes in 2007; in Ohio, the Republicans (with some Democratic support) raised taxes before 2006. Those tax increases haven’t helped those states’ economies, not so as you’d notice, though they’ve helped members of public employees unions.”
I hope this “rule” turns out to be true. Obama’s lead in NY NJ are small ... . We don’t need to win those states, but I doubt Obama will win the election if he ends up +5 in NJ.
I could not agree more. Well Said.
Drilling, Low Taxes, and National Security. If McCain/Palin stay on that message for the next 50 days they will be fine.
No matter how many MTV catch words Obama orates, he has no real policy to defend against core Conservative beliefs.
Still not good enough.
The McCain camp needs to take off the gloves NOW and start hitting HARD.
I doesn’t sound as if you are for McCain’s win actually, but if you read he is making projections not saying how it is today!
Please Cat. Are you know going to try and discredit Mike Barone?
You are a amateur just like me, do not embarrass yourself by ripping the premier political mind in America.
What’s your problem? Maybe you’d serve yourself, and everyone else her better, if you’d skip reading any poll threads. You are nothing but a negative force.
Do you even post in any other thread, or just poll threads just do you can make dire predictions, and negative comments?
Most people's taxes went down under Bush. They are told constantly that Bush's tax cuts only benefited the rich, and they know they're not rich. So, right there they know that the Rat is lying, and they know their taxes will go up if the Rat is elected. It's really not hard to figure out.
Higher taxes destroy jobs.
Simpler. Especially easier for McCain if he can string 4 coherent words together.
The “Statistical analysis of several sets of polls and the examination and study of historical American politics” flavor.
Which is quite a bit tastier than the “Litter box leavings pessimist” flavor that you seem partial to.
If you disagree, please post your deconstruction of Mr. Barone’s piece. Well thought out dissents are always welcome.
Polls, media bias and general elation/depression are all very nice. But don’t lose sight of the key fact...American voters are not going to put a thoroughly unqualified black in the White House. There are not enough blacks, leftists and brain dead kids to get it done.
Agreed. I trust his reading of elections more than any one else. He usually will break down each congressional district. I would like to see his take on the House this year.
I believe we have a “concern troll” here ...
well according to Barone’s article the following are his conclusions:
“Or to look at it another way, from Bush’s 2004 electoral vote total of 286, you now have to subtract Iowa (7), which is Obama +12 in the latest Des Moines Register poll, and maybe Colorado (9), Virginia (13), and New Mexico (5), which gets the Republican total down to 252. Or to 247, if you include Nevada (5). But in the northern tier there are 63 more electoral votes within reasonable reach of McCain in the northern tier and New Hampshire. And maybe he wants to start looking at New Jersey (15). I see Obama as competitive or leading in states with 338 electoral votes (granting him the 27 in Florida, which looks to me increasingly unlikely). I see McCain as competitive or leading in states with 342 electoral votes. Advantage shifting toward McCain.”
that apparently is the kool aid being drunk
Actually, I think I got a good education in my local “government” school.
I am very happy that you did. But the exception does not disprove the rule.
You're starting to lose it... your brain cells are turning against you... you need to shake the bottle to get the last of your medication...
I would also hit him with his phony support of the autoworkers. He pledges to bring investment to develop new technologies whereas the automakers would have plenty of money for investment if more people could be persuaded to by cars designed and made in america. He demonstrates this support by owning a Toyota Prius. Mac should make the claim that for every american car sold, an american job is saved.
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