Posted on 09/18/2008 5:27:06 AM PDT by smartyaz
This seems like a fair and reasonable sample to me.
Total Respondents 1133 Republicans 326 Democrats 437 Independents 370
(s)
a lo
upon the third day of bad polling,
the messiah rose up again
bearing the fruits
of email hacking...
(/s)
We can bash this or any poll all we want, but with the frightening economic news since the weekend,McCain is
going to get blame through guilt by association with Bush.
This may be enough to erase gains of support that McCain
picked up in Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania where the economy is the issue. We whistled past graveyards in 2006
and received a rude awaking.
O NOES. cBS spells doom. I’ll have to catch Dan Rather tonite, er, nevermind...
I don’t think we should get wrapped up in these polls. We shouldn’t get too excited when McCain is up and we shouldn’t get too depressed when he is down.
I wasn’t breaking out the champagne last week when the polls were favorable like others on this board because I knew the polls would fluctuate.
The only poll that will give us a good indication is Rasmussen on November 3rd other than that they are all bunk.
We are aware of that. However, generally the Dems of 5.1% advantage in registered voters NOT 25%.
Blame it on the polls if you want, but a few weeks ago, the polls were running in favor of McCain in spite of media bias. Where I live (Northern Virginia), McCain has been getting hammered in ads by Obama. Obama is taking advantage of the lack of rebuttals by McCain to assert more and more powerfully deceptive ads. Our guy is standing in the middle of the ring with his hands down, and Obama is simply pummeling him.
The “Sampling bias” that you see is due to a simple fact, more people identify as Democrats than Republicans. The fact is, this bad economic news, plus the Palin bashing, is going to negatively effect McCain. Thats just how it is. You can bury your head in the sand, or accept reality for what it is. Is this poll perfect? Probably not, but the rest of the polls are going to show this same trend, so butch up.
Exactly. If Obama is now "surging," what is that surge based upon?
I just don't buy that people change their minds about whom they're voting for on a whim.
It’s the latest market turmoil I think. Idiots associate Clinton years with ‘prosperity’ and when they see financial markets crazyness they get nervous and...
- yea my first thought would be, let’s put a socialist in charge, that’ll calm the markets and everyone will sing kum-ba-ya. /sarc
“This poll over sampled Rats by a large margin.”
Ian’t this par for the course with CBS SlantNews, a division, along with ABS SlantNews, CNN SlantNews, NBC SlantNews, and the New York SlantTimes of the DNC and Obama campaign?
Sean Hannity says on his radio show that journalism died this year. Sean is wrong!! It has been dead for a long time!
Now the DemoFascists want to impose the so-called ‘Fairness Doctrine!”
Whatever. Publicizing poll results is an attempt at manipulating the final vote using the “everyone else is doing it” logic.
That never worked with me and it certainly won’t work when the curtain closes at the voting booth.
Yes, but look at the huge margin. Only 28% identify as GOP, post-Palin? I think not.
And even if you're right about them being off by only 2-3%, if you take 3% and hgive them to McCain, he actually comes out slightly ahead (especially since GOP loyalty his stronger than Dem loyalty).
Hi Obama.
Actually more like by 5-6%!
come on folks - this is silly. We’re happy when the polls are up and we find excuses when the polls turn. The public doesn’t like Obama, but they will vote for a Martian if they are scared enough and now they’re scared. This is not the America of the founders - its the America of “what will you give me”. We may get lucky and pull it out, but don’t bet on it. God help us.
Those percentages are roughly the percentages of registered Democrats, Republicans and Independents.
Last week, on September 8th, CBS showed McCain ahead and back then, it was a “good poll” that “finally got the truth out.”
Stop hyperventilating. McCain is still doing well in state-by-state polling. Popular vote doesn’t matter, electoral vote does.
NO they are not the correct percentages..at ALL.
I’d like to see the last poll to see whether they over sampled dems by 10%.
It’s 4 to 5 percent too high.
Whatever you say, but these numbers are close to what the other pollsters use.
The state polls are the ones that matter, period. You're right about that, and they are increasingly looking better for McCain/Palin.
But the other two factors that get tiresome is:
1.) Voter TURNOUT by Party ID is roughly EQUAL, not Dems +10%. Only Rasmussen ever corrects for this.
2.) The polls ADDED Democrats from their original samples. Did as much as 4% more of the nation just become Democrats since the GOP Convention bounce? No. it's clearly a poll to show a swing back to Obama that does not yet exist, or at the very least does not yet exist in such a tsunami of voters.
It's a poll taken to give Obama supporters the belief that they are winning again. Nothing more.
If the poll is a “registered voter” poll, then turnout doesn’t factor into the result. “Likely voter” polls do that.
Secondly, why would a polling company “fake” results? There are too many of them and if they produce misleading results, there’s always another one waiting in the wings to take their place. Apparently, the people who believe in polling conspiracies haven’t heard about capitalism.
Unfortunately, the headlines get reported of an Obama lead, never any internals analysis, and that begins to shape the outcome.
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