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Election 2008: Maine Presidential Election [Maine in Play? Obama +4]
rasmussenreports ^

Posted on 09/19/2008 3:15:54 PM PDT by flyfree

John McCain has pulled within four points of Barack Obama in Maine. That’s the closest he has been in any of the six monthly polls Rasmussen Reports has conducted in the state since April.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Maine voters finds Obama with 50% of the vote and McCain with 46%

(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...


TOPICS: Extended News; Politics/Elections; US: Maine
KEYWORDS: 2008polls; electionpresident; mccainpalin; me2008; tossups

1 posted on 09/19/2008 3:15:54 PM PDT by flyfree
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To: flyfree

Good. Remember that Maine splits it’s electoral votes. If the race is this close, they can split them up.


2 posted on 09/19/2008 3:17:32 PM PDT by nobamanada
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To: flyfree
Good news. Interesting that some of the polls have shown Hussien regaining the national lead the individual states seem to show otherwise.
3 posted on 09/19/2008 3:17:32 PM PDT by Parley Baer
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To: flyfree

I like seeing that. Maine 2 is then in play (Not much of a chance in Maine 1 thanks to Portland)


4 posted on 09/19/2008 3:18:04 PM PDT by Darren McCarty (Palin in 08)
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To: flyfree

I doubt Maine is really “in play.” Yet doesn’t Maine possibly split its electoral votes? How do they calculate that?


5 posted on 09/19/2008 3:18:44 PM PDT by stevem
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To: flyfree

It would be good if McCain culd pick up some of Maine’s electoral votes. I believe they are divided among the districts. It could be a tie breaker in a close election.


6 posted on 09/19/2008 3:19:04 PM PDT by John Robie
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To: stevem

I think that if the trends line stay this way, they’ll start talking about it. I wish I knew!


7 posted on 09/19/2008 3:20:13 PM PDT by nobamanada
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To: Parley Baer

I bet the national polls are being conducted with an uneven amount of NYC voters.


8 posted on 09/19/2008 3:20:26 PM PDT by John Robie
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To: flyfree

Maine often gets weird when they finally vote for POTUS/VP in the general election. The percent of voters that voted for Ross Perot in ‘92 was amazing.


9 posted on 09/19/2008 3:27:06 PM PDT by johnthebaptistmoore (Vote for conservatives AT ALL POLITICAL LEVELS! Encourage all others to do the same on November 4!)
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To: flyfree
In 2004, Kerry won Maine by 8.99 points, but only won the 2nd Congressional District by 5.8 points. I think there will be an even greater divergence between the CDs in 2008 because Obama polarizes white collar vs blue collar.

I previously estimated that McCain would do 4-6 points better than Bush in the 2nd CD but 4-6 points worse in the 1st CD, all things being equal, which would put the 2nd CD at about a tie at best. But if McCain raises his overall Maine performance even two points, he would have a real good chance at a narrow win in CD2.

10 posted on 09/19/2008 3:27:46 PM PDT by JohnnyZ (This gun for hire)
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To: Darren McCarty; flyfree
flyfree I like seeing that. Maine 2 is then in play (Not much of a chance in Maine 1 thanks to Portland)

But Maine splits its electoral votes. The winner in each congressional district gets 1 EV, and the overall winner in the state gets 2 EV. Even if McCain didn't win Maine, he still might be able to peal off one EV from it. It is possible for a candidate to win 1, 3, or 4 EV from Maine.

11 posted on 09/19/2008 3:36:23 PM PDT by Paleo Conservative (Drill Here. Drill Now. Pay Less.)
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To: nobamanada
"Remember that Maine splits it’s electoral votes. If the race is this close, they can split them up."

Which is why no candidate has seriously campaigned there in 40 years. Max gain, 1 EV.

12 posted on 09/19/2008 3:38:47 PM PDT by cookcounty ("A ship in harbor is safe, but that's not why the ship is built." ---Governor Sarah Palin)
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To: flyfree

Money spent in Maine is even more wasteful than in NJ.


13 posted on 09/19/2008 3:42:51 PM PDT by cw35
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To: nobamanada

Doesn’t Colorado also split its electoral votes? How do they decide how to do it?


14 posted on 09/19/2008 3:44:25 PM PDT by hsalaw
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To: nobamanada
Remember that Maine splits it’s electoral votes.

How does that work anyway? EV's going to the candidate who wins each CD? With the two Senate EV's going to whom?

15 posted on 09/19/2008 3:46:20 PM PDT by Mr_Moonlight
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To: cw35
Money spent in Maine is even more wasteful than in NJ.

I very much disagree. There are several scenarios where that 1 electoral vote could deliver a McCain victory.

It is very, very cheap to micro-target television and radio advertising to the second district; the media market is tiny and dirt cheap compared to a metropolitan area.

16 posted on 09/19/2008 3:46:54 PM PDT by JohnnyZ (This gun for hire)
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To: Mr_Moonlight
EV's going to the candidate who wins each CD? With the two Senate EV's going to whom?

Nebraska and Maine both use a system where the two Senate EV's (so to speak) go to the overall winner of the state's popular vote. The winner of each congressional district is awarded a sole electoral vote.

17 posted on 09/19/2008 3:50:05 PM PDT by JohnnyZ (This gun for hire)
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To: hsalaw

No, Nebraska’s the other state. And the Obamessiah opened an office in Omaha last week, hoping to steal an EV or two.


18 posted on 09/19/2008 3:51:30 PM PDT by impeachedrapist (On Free Republic PBD [political bipolar disorder] rules!)
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To: cw35
Money spent in NJ could deliver a Dem Senate seat to the GOP.

Can Zimmer Steal Lautenberg's Senate Seat for the GOP?

19 posted on 09/19/2008 3:52:36 PM PDT by impeachedrapist (On Free Republic PBD [political bipolar disorder] rules!)
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To: flyfree
I don't believe it for a minute.You look at past results and you see that ME....and RI...are,believe it or not,*much* bluer than Massachusetts.I'll wager the clothes on my back that McLame will be lucky to get 33% of the vote there.
20 posted on 09/19/2008 3:59:40 PM PDT by Gay State Conservative (Obama:"Ich bin ein beginner")
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To: stevem

I doubt Maine is really “in play.”

Believe it!

The black population in Maine is hovering around 1%

And Maine has a lot of Hockey Moms.

Would love to see a big rally in Bangor and Portland!


21 posted on 09/19/2008 4:08:46 PM PDT by proudpapa (McCain - Palin'08)
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To: stevem

Also,

Maine has two female “republican” senators.

(Which may or may not help...)


22 posted on 09/19/2008 4:10:01 PM PDT by proudpapa (McCain - Palin'08)
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To: proudpapa

Maine has ALOT of hunters.....including moose hunters!

I’m sure Sarah strikes a cord with the hunters of Maine.


23 posted on 09/19/2008 4:16:35 PM PDT by july4thfreedomfoundation (Thirty democrat attorneys are in Alaska "investigating" Gov. Palin....how many are in Chicago?)
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To: nobamanada

I’ve posted regarding this before. Northern Maine (with it’s one elector) could easily go for McCain. It is certainly an area of people who cling to their guns and religion.


24 posted on 09/19/2008 4:22:58 PM PDT by MSF BU (++)
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To: cookcounty

Not entirely true.

George W. Bush campaigned at an airplane hangar at Bangor International Airport in both 2000 and 2004. McCain was at his side during one of those visits (McCain was suffering from food poisoning at the time, but he was there anyway).

Bill Clinton also campaigned here. I don’t remember if Bob Dole ever came here.

John Kerry, John Edwards and Stephen King (!) appeared at a campaign rally at the University of Maine in Orono (north of Bangor) in 2004. John Edwards and his wife appeared by themselves on another visit to Bangor, at a rally on the shores of the Penobscot River, in 2004.

Obama came here during the primary season....he won the Maine caucus.

Some national candidates only campaign in southern Maine, which is more heavily populated than the rest of the state.


25 posted on 09/19/2008 4:24:30 PM PDT by july4thfreedomfoundation (Thirty democrat attorneys are in Alaska "investigating" Gov. Palin....how many are in Chicago?)
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To: cookcounty

Here’s why that 1 EV counts:

NH + ME-CD2 = 270

We wouldn’t need Iowa, Colorado, or New Mexico.


26 posted on 09/19/2008 4:41:08 PM PDT by Norman Bates (Freepmail me to be part of the McCain List!)
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To: TitansAFC; Clintonfatigued; fieldmarshaldj; LS

Four point spread in Maine! This means we have an excellent shot at least at carrying the 2nd congressional district.


27 posted on 09/19/2008 4:43:10 PM PDT by Norman Bates (Freepmail me to be part of the McCain List!)
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To: Norman Bates

Countdown to McCain
Tune in this Monday when the Republican presidential candidate hits Rach’s kitchen!(CBS)

http://www.rachaelrayshow.com/

Cooking with McCain

Tune in on Monday 9/22 when Republican presidential candidate John McCain and his wife Cindy head into Rachael’s kitchen to share their recipe for barbequed ribs.

(see photos-)
http://www.rachaelrayshow.com/show/segments/view/cooking-mccain/

From the previews Senator McCain appeared at ease and Mrs. McCain will explain why they love Palin. Of any of them, Rachel will probably be the most even handed.


28 posted on 09/19/2008 4:47:46 PM PDT by AuntB ( "During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." - George Orwell)
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To: flyfree
Based on my stochastic model of Rasmussen state polls, as of today McCain has an expected value of 276.99 electoral votes, with a 64.23% probability of winning.

-PJ

29 posted on 09/19/2008 4:49:33 PM PDT by Political Junkie Too (You can never overestimate the Democrats' ability to overplay their hand.)
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To: Norman Bates

Every EV will count. NM swinging back to the Messiah.


30 posted on 09/19/2008 4:56:26 PM PDT by LS ("Castles made of sand, fall in the sea . . . eventually." (Hendrix))
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To: hsalaw

Colorado had an initiative on the 2004 ballot to split it’s electoral votes, but it failed.

The only states that currently do this are Nebraska and Maine. Usually, it doesn’t happen because the margins by the winners are too high.


31 posted on 09/19/2008 5:03:25 PM PDT by nobamanada
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To: Norman Bates

Yup,

What could very well be a VERY important ME CD-2!!!


32 posted on 09/19/2008 5:22:32 PM PDT by TitansAFC (In 2008, please vote GOP and show us that you love your country more than you hate John McCain)
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To: TitansAFC; meandog; onyx; MARTIAL MONK; GulfBreeze; Kuksool; freespirited; Salvation; furquhart; ...
The McCain List.

Maine
Obama 50%
McCain 46%

McCain-Palin have closed the gap remarkably in this New England state with, at one point in the summer, McCain being down nearly twenty percent. What is noteworthy about this is that Maine is one of only two states (the other being Nebraska) which apportions its electoral votes by congressional district. Maine's 1st district is liberal and includes Portland. But its 2nd district is more Republican-friendly. If McCain were to win the 2nd district (1 electoral vote) and New Hampshire, he would reach 270 electoral votes and win the Presidency without Colorado, Iowa, or New Mexico. And with only a statewide spread of four points, the 2nd district is well within our reach.

Competing in Maine and its 2nd district ought to be a top priority.

33 posted on 09/19/2008 5:37:19 PM PDT by Norman Bates (Freepmail me to be part of the McCain List!)
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To: TitansAFC

If McCain can rework some of his Granite State magic, Maine’s CD-2 may turn out to be the most important single electoral vote in history.


34 posted on 09/19/2008 5:39:01 PM PDT by Norman Bates (Freepmail me to be part of the McCain List!)
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To: Norman Bates

Great news.


35 posted on 09/19/2008 5:41:17 PM PDT by rdl6989 (What isn't above Obama's pay grade?)
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To: Parley Baer

Obama has been losing ground since late June. McCain has turned blue states competitive. Obama is going to spend time and money defending the traditionally blue states.

McCain is running a very good campaign.


36 posted on 09/19/2008 5:43:38 PM PDT by 1035rep
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To: stevem
Yet doesn’t Maine possibly split its electoral votes?

Yes, it can.

How do they calculate that?

Two electoral votes go to the statewide winner with 1 EV apportioned for the winner of each of Maine's two congressional districts. For example, if McCain were to win CD-2 while Obama still won CD-1 and overall statewide, McCain would get 1 EV and Obama would get 3 EVs.
37 posted on 09/19/2008 5:47:08 PM PDT by Norman Bates (Freepmail me to be part of the McCain List!)
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To: rdl6989

Absolutely. I’m thrilled about this development.


38 posted on 09/19/2008 5:47:54 PM PDT by Norman Bates (Freepmail me to be part of the McCain List!)
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To: cw35
Money spent in Maine is even more wasteful than in NJ.

The campaign knows these states are competitive or they wouldn't be spending the money there.  The same thing was said about Wisconsin, Oregon and Washington and McCain is within just a few points from flipping those states.  I think the McCain campaign knows where to spend the money.

39 posted on 09/19/2008 5:50:55 PM PDT by 1035rep
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To: 1035rep; cw35

Buying ad space for New Jersey means buying ad space in New York AND in Philadelphia, two very expensive media markets. I get both NY and Philly stations, and McCain has already spent alot of money on ads in the latter for the purpose of getting PA.


40 posted on 09/19/2008 5:57:09 PM PDT by Clemenza (PRIVATIZE FANNIE AND FREDDIE! NO MORE BAILOUTS!)
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To: Norman Bates

I’ve said it before, but I mean it now more than ever;

I WANT TO SEE A POLL OF ME CD-2!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


41 posted on 09/19/2008 6:30:47 PM PDT by TitansAFC (In 2008, please vote GOP and show us that you love your country more than you hate John McCain)
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To: flyfree

I always thought it was odd that McCain would have “no chance” in a state with two republican senators. After all, McCain isn’t seen as some die-hard conservative right-winger, he should be liked by the people who vote for Snowe and whats-her-face, even if in fact he’s more conservative than they are.


42 posted on 09/19/2008 6:43:41 PM PDT by CharlesWayneCT
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To: nobamanada

Oddly, now that Colorado is purple, if they had split their EV, it would make them meaningless, because it would be likely to split 5-4 or 4-5, maybe 6-3. Not enough delegates to be worth the effort.

But with all 9 going to the winner, they will get a LOT of attention.

I’d love it if every democratic state would switch to split votes. It would really help us win elections.


43 posted on 09/19/2008 6:49:09 PM PDT by CharlesWayneCT
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To: july4thfreedomfoundation

moose hunters

Good point


44 posted on 09/19/2008 6:51:53 PM PDT by Jet Jaguar (Who would the terrorists vote for?)
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To: flyfree
Keep this in mind Maine voted for Kerry 54/45 in 2004. Now close your eyes and say, “Even if a deep blue state that voted Kerry 54/45, a White man with none of the baggage of Obama is now just + 4 for Obama I believe the national polls that say Obama is up by 5 points.” Repeat this until you believe it.
45 posted on 09/20/2008 7:28:49 AM PDT by jmaroneps37 (Conservatism is truth. Liberalism is lies.)
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