Posted on 09/20/2008 11:35:28 AM PDT by maccaca
General Election Campaign In presidential trial-heat matchups between Ford and Carter, Ford trailed the eventual Democratic nominee by small margins in March, April, and early May. By late May, Carter opened up a double-digit lead and maintained it until late September. Carter's lead swelled to as much as 33 points, 62% to 29% among registered voters, after the Democratic convention that year. Ford cut into the margin after the Republican convention, reducing a 25-point (57% to 32%) early August deficit to 13 points (50% to 37%). ... In a poll conducted immediately after their first debate, Carter maintained a double-digit lead. But Ford chipped away at that lead and before the second debate a poll showed the two in a statistical dead heat (Carter 47%, Ford 45%). However, in the next debate Ford incorrectly asserted that Eastern Europe was not under Soviet domination, and Carter pulled ahead, 48% to 42%. Carter continued to lead the race for the next few weeks, but Ford made up additional ground following the third debate in late October, again pulling even. In the final pre-election poll, Gallup's numbers indicated a statistical dead heat among likely voters, with Ford at 49% and Carter 48% (the unallocated numbers had Ford at 47% and Carter at 46%). The actual outcome was 50% for Carter and 48% for Ford. The election was so close that it was not certain that Carter would win until the morning after Election Day.
(Excerpt) Read more at gallup.com ...
Funny thing is....millions voted against Ford for the Nixon pardon.....today, even Teddy Kennedy agrees it was the right thing to do.
It can all turn on a dime.
Nobody can predict the future.
Not even pollsters! LOL
But I know this, your candidates are far more likely to lose if you do not do something to help them win.
If Ford doesn’t make that gaffe about Eastern Eurpore not being under Societ domintaion, he wins.
I just hope McCains comment about the economy being fundamentally strong doesnt have the same effect.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
It is funny how some people on here freak out when the polls shift some. Gerald Ford was down 20-30 points and nearly won the election.
at this point in 1980. Carter was leading Ronald Reagan.
BFD that Zogby, Rass or Gallup got it "close" once or twice. If everyone tried to reverse engineer a Snicker Bar, someone is bound to get "close."
What can't be polled, is the millions and millions of people that watch TV and see the Lame Stream Media pile on good, honest people like Palin and it fires them up. It brings pain to the active part of the brain and it festers there until election night and they go vote for the candidate who is most like them, or is viewed as the underdog in an unfair scorched earth attack like they are putting on Palin. THAT is the holy grail of polling and there will NEVER be anyone to harness its power. Afterward the pollsters will slap themselves on the back and congratulate the one who came the closest, but that's like fist-bumping the guy who called the lottery numbers but didn't play.
“The fundamental of the economy is strong.”
Obama says ‘no.’ We say ‘yes’.
McCain explains. The fundamental strength is the people.
He is right.
It reminds me of this little story.
A left-leaning teacher (like it’s rare, huh?) in Elmira , New York asked her 6th grade class how many of them were Obama fans.
Not knowing what an Obama fan is, but wanting to be liked by the teacher, all the kids raised their hands except for little Johnny.
The teacher asked Johnny why he has decided to be different... again Johnny said, “Because I’m not an Obama fan”.
Teacher asked, “Why aren’t you an Obama fan?”
Johnny said, I’m a Republican.” Teacher, slightly irritated, asked why Republican. Johnny answered, “Well, my Mom and my Dad are Republican so I’m a Republican.”
Annoyed by this answer, the teacher asked, “If your mom was a moron and your dad was an idiot, what would that make you?”
With a big smile, Little Johnny replied, gleefully, “That would make me an Obama fan!”
At the risk of being lectured once again, I will point out that McCain is no Reagan and Carter did not have the luxury of the massive media and Internet support that Obama does.
Dukakis was leading George H.W. Bush.
Nixon was leading JFK.
McCain will stress at the debates that the "fundamentals" of the American economy are the American workers and their American spirit but that Obama's Fannie Mae cronies fleeced America.
Ford's famous gaff about eastern Europe was only part of the story. In the days following the debate he insisted on standing behind his statement with bizarre statements claiming eastern Europe really wasn't under Soviet domination. A simple admission that he had a brain fart and misspoke would have gone a long way to saving him. A good lesson, it's not the one mistake you make but how you clean it up that counts.
I think the first debate has to do with Foreign Policy..
The final 1980 polls said “too close to call”. Pollsters say it was a massive last minute shift. What do you expect them to say? “We blew it, and our polls were wrong!” No it is, “everyone decided at the last minute!”
Following up on my comment 14 - one reason I respect Rasmussem is he completely blew the 2000 election. He had Bush winning by like 8 points. After the election, he posted a “mea culpa” saying “I blew it, I’m sorry! I’ll try harder next time” (paraphrasing of course). Other pollsters aren’t so forthcoming. I remember Zogby was playing with his numbers in the middle of election day on 2004. Some people were screen capturing as he did this.
It's off topic however Mondale was neck to neck with Reagan via polling and the media until the landslide election of the greatest president of the 20th century.
What happened in '84?
Even Minnesota is "neck to neck" in this race presently.
Then Dole is the GOP nominee in 1980, the rat nominee wins, and America never gets the Gipper.
However, in the next debate Ford incorrectly asserted that Eastern Europe was not under Soviet domination, and Carter pulled ahead, 48% to 42%.
______________
I wrote a term paper on this in college as this being the reason Ford lost the election.
I agree. My personal feelings about this is, I want the polls to continue showing Obama in the lead. That will keep the Obamanoids happy with their VP choice. The current Obama ticket is the one I want to see on the ballot in November. JMHO.
That is what I was trying to say in another thread.
God is in control. He has a way of blessing us with the right leader at the right time. We will get the President we need.
The final 1980 polls said “too close to call”. Pollsters say it was a massive last minute shift. What do you expect them to say? “We blew it, and our polls were wrong!” No it is, “everyone decided at the last minute!”Part of the reason 1980 was such a blowout was that Carter conceded the election early in the night while most of the country was still voting. Many of his supporters in the west just went home when they heard that.
Of course it didn't help that all the national newscasts prominently displayed the number of days that the hostages had been held in Iran every night. People were pretty disgusted.
Reagan's was accused of Logan Act violations as well. Many people suspected he secretly negotiated a deal with the Iranians on the release of the hostages. It didn't help that the hostages were finally released on his inauguration day in 1981.
All of this stuff should be taken into account when looking at old polls. World and campaign events do make a difference. Maybe Obama will have an "eastern Europe" moment.
I remember as a punk kid staring incredulously at Ford when he made that inexplicable gaffe about Eastern Europe not being under Soviet Domination. One utterance on Ford’s part cost us four horrific Carter years.
But if not for election fraud in Texas and Chicago, Nixon would have been elected ...
The media was in the bag for Carter.
At least the right can now fight back on the internet.
Never thought of it that way. Great point!
Exactly. The die is cast.
Obama cannot possibly get close to bringing in all of Kerry's voters.
I'm not convinced Obama could win even without Palin as GOP VP nominee.
The media in 1980 wasn’t as blatant as now but they were just as biased. The more subtle bias might have been more effective. What there definitely was not in 1980 was alternative media and talk radio. The only news you got was what NBC, CBS or ABC decided to give you. McCain is certainly no Reagan. But I thing Gov. Palin is our new Ronald Reagan.
The media in 1980 wasn’t as blatant as now but they were just as biased.I don't but it. The way the media presented the Iranian hostage crisis was a killer for Carter. The days in captivity graphic on every newscast was a direct slap at Carter. Every night. The media was clearly tired of him as well. At best they were neutral.
But it is factually correct. We still have decent growth. Employment numbers are good. Interest rates are low. Fundamentally, as soon as we get the uncertainties in the financial markets behind us, the DOW will soar to 16,000, housing will start raising in values again, and personal incomes will rise.
“But it is factually correct.”
I certainly agree. But most middle of the road, independent Americans don’t see it that way. They trust CBS, ABC and NBC is telling them all they need to know. They don’t pay attention to politics much or delve into the facts of currents events. The rely on the MSM to tell them all they need to know. True, they are far from the doom and gloom Democrats who say we are in a depression, but they also don’t believe the economy is solid either. So that statement made by McCain sent them leaning back towards B. Hussien.
“We still have decent growth. Employment numbers are good. Interest rates are low. Fundamentally, as soon as we get the uncertainties in the financial markets behind us, the DOW will soar to 16,000, housing will start raising in values again, and personal incomes will rise.”
Not if Obama is elected!
Interest rates are low.How do interest rates stay low with the government competing in the credit market to raise this massive amount of money? Supply and demand dictates that more demand for money will drive the cost of it up.
The last (rv) Gallup Poll in 2004 had John Kerry +2 over Pres. Bush.
The more I think about it you have a good point. The media liked Ted Kennedy in his primary run against Carter and some that anti-Carter feeling carried over into the general election. I was reading The Reagan Diaries this past year and reading it reminded me how biased the media was against him once he became president. He was really the Great Communicator. There was no Rush Limbaugh, talk radio or FreeRepublic.com to back him up.
Dewey was leading Truman!
McCain said that the workers of america were fundamentally strong. Specifically, he said that we had great workers who did a great job, and THOSE fundamentals of our economy were strong.
That's how Nightline was started, with a show every night at 11:30 "Americans Held Hostage". We watched that every at college.
I can't imagine ANY of the MSM would do that today, knowing it would hurt a Democratic President.
You know a lot of conservatives like me hate McCain but we’re going to vote for him. I don’t think moderates and many democrats hate McCain. They hate Bush, but respect McCain so I think this knocks down democrat base turnout a bit too.
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