Times polls: Obama leads Iowa, Illinois

The Quad City Times ^ | September 21, 2008 | Charlotte Eby

[southernerwithanattitude]

Normal farmers are not socialists but this bunch from Iowa are really something! They have their hands in our pockets in normal times and now that they have their ethanol wh___s in Washington they want all of our money.

I want more Candian, Austrailian corn brought in! Bumpum

[ought-six]

This race is way too close for my comfort. An Obambi presidency frightens me to no end, as he is a hardcore marxist who has zero executive experience, lies like a rug, and is closely allied with people who not only hate America but want it brought down.

Can anyone say civil war?

[impeachedrapist]

And I can show you other polls showing McCain/Palin very close in Iowa. And considering they visited there just this week, I think it's obvious that McCain/Palin are not trailing by double digits in Iowa.

[Bernard]

If Obama loses this election, he will spend the rest of his adult life in the US Senate, getting re-elected every six years, sitting on the back bench with Kennedy and Kerry and Clinton and ...

Running for governor, and even worse from his point of view, winning, would require that he do something for four years instead of chit-chat. Not his style.

[gop4lyf]

During the 200 election I swear I saw a Gore/Lieberman sign at the entrance to a graveyard. Even though it was probably put there as a spoof I still found it hilarious.

[gop4lyf]

Make that the 2000 election.

[Perdogg]

McCain, though will take CO and NM.

__________________________ Colorado yes, NM, I don’t think so. I think it goes democrat this time around. Now I do think Penn is a very interesting state and one that McCain has a very good chance to fleece from the dem

I know Devsix doesn't think McCain can win a great lakes state (other than Indiana or Ohio), what about the two of you?

[DemonDeac]

I think he has Illinois and losses Iowa.

[Perdogg]

I think McCain wins at least one of PA; MI, MN, or Wiskey (lesser extent). I think McCain hangs on to all of the states Bush won in 2004 except for Iowa and/or NM.

If someone disagree with my assessment from these states, let me know.

[pollywog]

Does anyone else get depressed when we see these headlines?

Looking for a ray of hope here...
Polly

[navymom1]

I know Devsix doesn’t think McCain can win a great lakes state (other than Indiana or Ohio), what about the two of you?
________________________________-
My dh and I were out and about this weekend here in Indianapolis. Very strong Dem presence at two festivals. First one was a multi-culture event and had a bunch of college kids. Second was an ethnic festival with the typical aging hippies visiting the Obama tent. DH would not allow me to ask Obama tent where I could get a Sarah lipstick bumpter sticker, spoiled sport. LOL. Lots of Obama tv and radio commercials, but I just don’t see Obama taking Indiana. He’ll get Marion county where I live, but not the state.

Also, I’m gonna stick with my intuition and say that McCain gains Penn by a VERY slim margin (maybe just 1% pt) as well as squeeks by in Wisconsion. He retains CO this go-round but not by much. Of course I could be wrong and since I’m relying on intuition, take it with a grain of sea salt.

[retry]

You don’t understand. In the democrat controlled precincts
all across the country, the votes have been cast, and they are in the ballot boxes just waiting to be swapped with the legitimate ballot boxes on election night after the poles close. The dims leave nothing to chance.

[supercat]

Why would they waste money polling Illinois?

Perhaps to see if the McCain/Palin are close enough there that a surprise trip could rattle Obama. If the polling showed Obama winning by a 70/20 margin and McCain/Palin were to pay a visit, Obama could just laugh it off. But if Obama's up 55/40, then a McCain/Palin visit might cause Obama to react in a way that would be favorable to McCain/Palin.

[BillyBoy]

>> Here’s the second poll this week showing The One with a double-digit lead in Iowa. McCain has never run strongly there <<

When you were posting on the Arkansas Presidential poll numbers, you noted McCain was safely ahead and therefore there's no reason to put Huckabee on the ticket. Going by your argument that McCain's veep should be based solely on what states they can carry, wouldn't Iowa be a case FOR Huckabee on the ticket? He was far more successful in Iowa than Romney ever was in Michigan, and Huck had no past ties to Iowa whatsoever.

(Just pointing out that a veep should be selected on more reasons than just their election numbers in various states)

Seriously, I do getting Iowa in the GOP column is doable (Bush moved it from D to R in 2004), whether or not Huck is on the ticket. The problem is McCain traditionally snubed Iowa voters in the Ames during the 2000 and 2008 elections (using the same Fred Thompson logic that the early contests "don't matter"), and it's coming back to haunt him. McCain & Palin will have to spend alot of time in the upper midwest to make up for that.

[BillyBoy]

Here's the results from last time. Illinois isn't nearly as bad as say, New York (where Dems win by a 2-to-1 margin) Kerry won Chicago and the college towns in Illinois by HUGE margins(taking in about 12 out of 102 counties), while the rest of the state was vast streches of conservatives. Unlike most states in the union, the capitol of Illinois (Springfield) and its county (Sangamon) is a GOP stronghold.

It's therefore theoretically possible for Obama to lose his home state ala Al Gore in 2000, but Obama would have to be damaged enough to be trailing by a 40-state margin nationwide.

Iowa has always been close, it's probably one of the best examples in the U.S. of a "middle of the road" state. It's about equally dividied between the two parties. I could never figure out why. (Des Moines is hardly a urban left-wing mecca like San Fran or Boston)

ILLINOIS 2004
Kerry/ Edwards (D) 2,891,550 votes, 54.82%
Bush/Cheney (R) 2,345,946 votes 44.48%

BUSH COUNTIES = BLUE
KERRY COUNTIES = RED

IOWA 2004
Bush/Cheney (R) 751,957 votes, 49.90%
Kerry/Edwards (D) 741,898 votes, 49.23%

BUSH COUNTIES = BLUE
KERRY COUNTIES = RED

[Clemenza]

Eastern Iowa was heavily settled by Scandanavians. There is also a large blue collar, traditionally Democratic Irish American community in Dubuque and the Quads.

Western Iowa has alot of cattle ranchers, and a more Anglo Protestant population.

[Impy]

Oh yeah, it’s the perfect plan for him, he’d walk into the office and run again in ‘16 as the guy with “executive experience”