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2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/22/2008
InTrade ^ | Monday, September 22, 2008 | Momaw Nadon

Posted on 09/22/2008 7:10:03 AM PDT by Momaw Nadon



TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2008; 2008election; election; electionpresident; elections; electoral; electoralvotes; intrade; mccain; mccainpalin; obama; obamabiden; presidential; projected; votes
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Intrade.com is a futures market in which people bet on the outcomes of various things such as the results of elections.

According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2008 Presidential Election.

If the traders are correct, John McCain would receive 265 Electoral Votes and Barack Obama would receive 273 Electoral Votes.

If the weighted probabilities of John McCain winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then John McCain should get 260.79 Electoral Votes.

270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.

Opinions and commentary are welcome.

1 posted on 09/22/2008 7:10:03 AM PDT by Momaw Nadon
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Previous projections:

2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/15/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/8/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/1/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/25/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/18/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/11/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/4/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/7/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/30/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/23/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/16/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/9/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/2/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/26/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/19/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/12/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/5/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/7/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/31/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/24/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/17/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/10/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/3/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/25/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/18/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/11/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/4/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/7/2008

2 posted on 09/22/2008 7:10:19 AM PDT by Momaw Nadon ("...with the ultimate goal of ending tyranny in our world.")
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3 posted on 09/22/2008 7:10:41 AM PDT by Momaw Nadon ("...with the ultimate goal of ending tyranny in our world.")
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To: Aeronaut; amigatec; angkor; annyokie; beckysueb; billva; BlessedByLiberty; bluefish; ...


If you want on (or off) of the weekly InTrade Projected Presidential Electoral Vote ping list, please let me know via FREEPmail.


4 posted on 09/22/2008 7:11:20 AM PDT by Momaw Nadon ("...with the ultimate goal of ending tyranny in our world.")
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To: Momaw Nadon

McCain’s best hope is to flip Minnisota, Michigan, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin to his side.


5 posted on 09/22/2008 7:12:04 AM PDT by Always Right (Obama: more arrogant than Bill Clinton, more naive than Jimmy Carter, and more liberal than LBJ.)
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To: Momaw Nadon

If the traders are correct,....................


6 posted on 09/22/2008 7:13:56 AM PDT by Red Badger (I'm gonna use "Sarah!" from NOW ON since Hillary uses "Hillary!"......)
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To: Red Badger

Gee, they’ve been spot-on till now, haven’t they? Especially last week/sarc.

Colonel, USAFR


7 posted on 09/22/2008 7:16:08 AM PDT by jagusafr ("Bugs, Mr. Rico! Zillions of 'em!" - Robert Heinlein)
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To: Momaw Nadon; mombyprofession

UGH! I hate Wayne County deciding for the whole rest of the state every election!


8 posted on 09/22/2008 7:16:20 AM PDT by FreedomHammer (Just ring? ... let freedom ROAR!)
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To: Always Right

If he doesn’t, we could be effed.


9 posted on 09/22/2008 7:16:34 AM PDT by Perdogg (Sen Robert Byrd - Ex community organizer)
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To: FreedomHammer

Sorry, “whole rest of the state” would be Michigan.


10 posted on 09/22/2008 7:17:19 AM PDT by FreedomHammer (Just ring? ... let freedom ROAR!)
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To: Momaw Nadon

It’s coming down to holding Colorado. Bambi’s strategy depends on turning NM, IA, and CO blue. He will succeed with NM and IA. We need to prevail in CO.


11 posted on 09/22/2008 7:17:22 AM PDT by freespirited
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To: Red Badger
If the traders are correct,....................

They haven't been correct lately, have they?

12 posted on 09/22/2008 7:17:52 AM PDT by mlocher (USA is a sovereign state.)
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To: Momaw Nadon

Nice overview of the mental health status of our nation.

Geeze.


13 posted on 09/22/2008 7:17:55 AM PDT by vietvet67
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To: jagusafr

If Obama wins, can we blame the speculators?............


14 posted on 09/22/2008 7:18:13 AM PDT by Red Badger (I'm gonna use "Sarah!" from NOW ON since Hillary uses "Hillary!"......)
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To: freespirited

yep
hold colorado and its over for bambi
we have to fight like hell there
but bambi has to fight for MI WI and PENN i think


15 posted on 09/22/2008 7:19:02 AM PDT by housedeep
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To: Always Right

If the traders are correct, all he has to do is keep what he’s got and flip New Hampshire. It’s lighter blue than PA...


16 posted on 09/22/2008 7:20:54 AM PDT by HeadOn (So when do "I" get to be rich? I'm waiting...)
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To: mlocher
They haven't been correct lately, have they?

Especially at Lehman Brothers..................

17 posted on 09/22/2008 7:22:08 AM PDT by Red Badger (I'm gonna use "Sarah!" from NOW ON since Hillary uses "Hillary!"......)
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To: Momaw Nadon

McCain will win PA. End of discussion.


18 posted on 09/22/2008 7:26:31 AM PDT by NoobRep
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To: Red Badger
I wonder just how many of the rabid Obama supporters are going to vote for McCain when the curtain closes? That is a figure that must be considered.
19 posted on 09/22/2008 7:26:32 AM PDT by ANGGAPO (Layte Gulf Beach Club)
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To: Momaw Nadon
this map is behind - Florida is ‘true red’ now - and others are far closer to red than depicted...

McC is way up in Flor...for one example, 70,000 came yesterday to see/hear “Sarah” - Plugs got 2,000.

That tells a lot more than any polls or projections.

GO SARAH!

20 posted on 09/22/2008 7:27:32 AM PDT by maine-iac7 (No trees were killed in sending this message but a lot of electrons were terribly agitated)
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To: Momaw Nadon

We also take Michigan and Ohio.


21 posted on 09/22/2008 7:29:34 AM PDT by MindBender26 (Never kick a leftist when they are down. Wait until they are halfway back up. You get more leverage!)
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To: housedeep
Pennsylvania, isn't that where all of the bible thumping, gun toting rednecks hang out? They would never vote for Obama?
22 posted on 09/22/2008 7:30:47 AM PDT by ANGGAPO (Layte Gulf Beach Club)
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To: ANGGAPO
Pennsylvania is key to this race for McCain. McCain needs to campaign like never before. Western Pennsylvania will be a disaster for Obama. McCain has a real shot at winning if he puts in the work.

If McCain wins Pennsylvania, McCain will be the next President.

23 posted on 09/22/2008 7:32:34 AM PDT by freedomwarrior998
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To: Momaw Nadon

..that Pennsylvania projection is complete nonsense...


24 posted on 09/22/2008 7:45:05 AM PDT by WalterSkinner ( In Memory of My Father--WWII Vet and Patriot 1926-2007)
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To: Red Badger

INTRADE BANS GOP SHORT SALES!


25 posted on 09/22/2008 7:57:53 AM PDT by drangundsturm
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To: HeadOn

“If the traders are correct, all he has to do is keep what he’s got and flip New Hampshire. It’s lighter blue than PA...”

well i am going to do my part in NH
i am going to vote absentee ballott got the request form ready to mail


26 posted on 09/22/2008 8:21:29 AM PDT by DM1
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To: Momaw Nadon
How did In Trade do with the Palin pick? Oh yeah... that's right... they BLEW IT!

LLS

27 posted on 09/22/2008 8:31:19 AM PDT by LibLieSlayer (GOD, Country, Family... except when it comes to dims!)
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To: Momaw Nadon

Although I do believe that this method has some value as an indicator, it is certainly subject to manipulation by anyone willing to spend some money for a favorable result.


28 posted on 09/22/2008 8:33:41 AM PDT by MainFrame65 (The US Senate: World's greatest PREVARICATIVE body!.)
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To: Momaw Nadon

This Electoral Map is now on the front page of Intrade. It’s instantaneous, and much faster moving, as I posted on this thread:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/chat/2086290/posts?page=2#2

Intrade Profit Opportunities for this Election Cycle
Intrade Prediction Markets ^ | September 19, 2008 | Intrade

Posted on Friday, September 19, 2008 7:00:36 PM by Kevmo

Within the last couple of days, Intrade has posted a version of the electoral map that Momaw Nadon has been generating once a week. The map is now instantaneous. ....

_____________________________________________________

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/chat/2086290/posts?page=19#19

Momaw, tomorrow you’ll be posting the electoral map as usual. But things have changed dramatically for that map due to the one on Intrade. It might be time to just convert your list into an Intrade Ping List.


29 posted on 09/22/2008 8:35:30 AM PDT by Kevmo (Obama Birth Certificate is a Forgery. http://www.freerepublic.com/tag/certifigate/index?tab=articles)
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To: Momaw Nadon

If JM flips New Hampshire, its all tied up.


30 posted on 09/22/2008 8:39:46 AM PDT by Archie Bunker on steroids (Democratic initiatives: the antithesis of every single one of America's traditional core values)
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To: Kevmo
It might be time to just convert your list into an Intrade Ping List.

I've been posting the Electoral Map once a week since the beginning of January. I'll post six more updates on Mondays, which will bring us to November 3. If anyone wants to start a general InTrade ping list, that's fine with me.

31 posted on 09/22/2008 8:46:21 AM PDT by Momaw Nadon ("...with the ultimate goal of ending tyranny in our world.")
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To: Momaw Nadon

Intrade already shows different results than your map. Currently it’s McCain 240 to Obama 298.

(This suggests a buying opportunity for McCain to me).

With the electoral map on Intrade now, things are much faster moving than once a week.


32 posted on 09/22/2008 9:26:09 AM PDT by Kevmo (Obama Birth Certificate is a Forgery. http://www.freerepublic.com/tag/certifigate/index?tab=articles)
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To: Momaw Nadon

Here’s something I don’t understand. The difference between your map and Intrade’s current map appears to be only Ohio with 20 EV’s. That should make it 260 to 278 on your map or maybe theirs should be 293 to 245?


33 posted on 09/22/2008 9:38:31 AM PDT by Kevmo (Obama Birth Certificate is a Forgery. http://www.freerepublic.com/tag/certifigate/index?tab=articles)
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To: Kevmo

Currently, Ohio (20) and Nevada (5) have flipped back into Obama’s column on the InTrade site.


34 posted on 09/22/2008 9:46:46 AM PDT by Momaw Nadon ("...with the ultimate goal of ending tyranny in our world.")
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To: LibLieSlayer

How did In Trade do with the Palin pick? Oh yeah... that’s right... they BLEW IT!
***There was one Freeper who posted that he made something like a 700% return on his bet on Palin within 1 week. That’s the point. Compare that to the MSM and EXIT POLLS in 2004 that showed there’d be a president Kerry — they BLEW IT! What can a Freeper get from knowing such polls are dead wrong, other than a broken TV set (from when we throw bricks at it)? But a Freeper who knows Intrade results are wrong gets to make money, if he’s right. In the aggregate, overall accumulation of results, Intrade comes out right much more often than Poll Results. And we can make money at it, too.


35 posted on 09/22/2008 9:52:26 AM PDT by Kevmo (Obama Birth Certificate is a Forgery. http://www.freerepublic.com/tag/certifigate/index?tab=articles)
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To: Always Right
McCain’s best hope is to flip Minnisota, Michigan, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin to his side.

Or Colorado.

36 posted on 09/22/2008 10:08:19 AM PDT by Ol' Sparky (Liberal Republicans are the greater of two evils)
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To: Kevmo

I am all for making money off of fools!

LLS


37 posted on 09/22/2008 10:31:42 AM PDT by LibLieSlayer (GOD, Country, Family... except when it comes to dims!)
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To: Momaw Nadon

I wonder if this takes into consideration the sizable numbers of democrats who, despite what they say in public, will not pull the lever for Obama because of their own racial prejudices.


38 posted on 09/22/2008 10:37:25 AM PDT by reagan_fanatic ("And how can this be? For I am the Kwisatz Haderach! " - Barack Obama)
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To: reagan_fanatic
I wonder if this takes into consideration the sizable numbers of democrats who, despite what they say in public, will not pull the lever for Obama because of their own racial prejudices.

Maybe some traders do?

Maybe some traders don't?

That's the $270,000 question.

39 posted on 09/22/2008 10:47:11 AM PDT by Momaw Nadon ("...with the ultimate goal of ending tyranny in our world.")
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To: DM1

YAY! All “Yankees” ain’t bad, I guess... :-)

Seriously, though - I am PRAYING that God doesn’t let the U.S. go down the drain. My sons deserve better.

God Bless.


40 posted on 09/22/2008 11:36:48 AM PDT by HeadOn (So when do "I" get to be rich? I'm waiting...)
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To: HeadOn

“YAY! All “Yankees” ain’t bad, I guess... :-)”

nope not all of us, though there are plenty who are ;)
i really hope McCain pulls out a win and it would be icing on the cake if he wins my adopted state of NH. I fled Mass 5 years ago and the @#$% blue liberal wave followed me


41 posted on 09/22/2008 12:01:27 PM PDT by DM1
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To: reagan_fanatic

I wonder if this takes into consideration the sizable numbers of democrats who, despite what they say in public, will not pull the lever for Obama because of their own racial prejudices.
***It doesn’t matter. There’s something really wrong in pinning any hopes on such racial prejudices and there appears to be no way of quantifying them. And then, of course, the MSM and democrats will call America prejudiced if they lose. There’s nothing here of value for us in discussing it.


42 posted on 09/22/2008 1:57:54 PM PDT by Kevmo (Obama Birth Certificate is a Forgery. http://www.freerepublic.com/tag/certifigate/index?tab=articles)
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To: Archie Bunker on steroids
If JM flips New Hampshire, its all tied up.

If that happens, 2008 will make 2000 look like a kindergarten picnic.

43 posted on 09/22/2008 4:23:33 PM PDT by fhayek
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To: Archie Bunker on steroids

And unfortunately, the Dims have the numbers in the House to give Hussein the Presidency (I should know, I looked at what would happen if the EC ended up tied at 269).


44 posted on 09/22/2008 4:39:35 PM PDT by GOP_Raider (If I wanted a Chicago politician as my President, I'd vote for Richard Daley)
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To: GOP_Raider
Well, not necessarily. It is not a straight vote in the House, but rather a vote by state delegation. The representatives from California get together and vote. If the majority of them go for Obama, California would cast one vote for Obama. Likewise all of the states get one vote. To become president, you need to win 26 states. Something tells me that it could get awful wild and wooly, with who know how many side deals going on. By the way, the Senate votes for V.P. in a straight up vote. The President and the Vice President could be from different parties. I also believe that they do not HAVE to vote for the party nominees. (I welcome any corrections and amplifications to this posts).
45 posted on 09/22/2008 7:39:45 PM PDT by fhayek
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To: fhayek
Correct, I should have clarified that in my previous post. Here's the way it breaks down by state in the 110th Congress in the House:

By state it currently looks like it's 27 D, 21 R, and 2 states (AZ and KS) have a split delegation.

Now, if memory serves, the House members vote and have to vote again until they get a simple majority (in this case 26 states for one candidate or another).

46 posted on 09/22/2008 7:49:32 PM PDT by GOP_Raider (If I wanted a Chicago politician as my President, I'd vote for Richard Daley)
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To: HeadOn
If the traders are correct, all he has to do is keep what he’s got and flip New Hampshire. It’s lighter blue than PA...

wouldn't that make it 269 a piece? if it's a tie, McCain loses...

47 posted on 09/22/2008 7:54:39 PM PDT by latina4dubya (self-proclaimed tequila snob)
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To: GOP_Raider

Of course, it’s the congress that is seated in January that gets to vote. Do you know if D.C. gets a vote in this scenario?


48 posted on 09/22/2008 7:56:23 PM PDT by fhayek
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To: fhayek

According to Article II Sec I, I don’t believe so. If anyone has anything else that I might have missed, that would be great.


49 posted on 09/22/2008 8:00:01 PM PDT by GOP_Raider (If I wanted a Chicago politician as my President, I'd vote for Richard Daley)
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To: latina4dubya
Why do people say Obama wins at 269? Assuming no electorates change their vote, it goes to the House where each state gets one vote (based on the state's house delegation internal vote). Last time I looked, there are about 28 or so read states. Win to McCain.
50 posted on 09/22/2008 8:02:36 PM PDT by rlbedfor
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