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Virginia: Obama 51%, McCain 45% (SurveyUSA)
SurveyUSA ^ | 9/22/08 | SurveyUSA

Posted on 09/22/2008 9:37:01 AM PDT by tatown

Obama 51%, McCain 45% LV 38%-Dem, 33%-Rep, 22%-Ind

(Excerpt) Read more at surveyusa.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections; US: Virginia
KEYWORDS: electionpresident; mccainpalin; poll; surveyusa; virginia
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Any VA experts out there with thoughts on this one? Is VA still up for grabs? Is Obama still campaigning actively there?
1 posted on 09/22/2008 9:37:01 AM PDT by tatown
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To: tatown

I’m no expert, but I’m skeptical of this poll.


2 posted on 09/22/2008 9:39:45 AM PDT by hoe_cake ("Suppose you were an idiot. And suppose you were a member of Congress. But I repeat myself." MTwain)
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To: tatown

An outlier.


3 posted on 09/22/2008 9:40:37 AM PDT by Red Steel
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To: tatown

38% dem and 33% GOP.

Barack soundly ahead, and a 15-point-ish swing in VA in one Election?

unlikely.


4 posted on 09/22/2008 9:40:45 AM PDT by TitansAFC (In 2008, please vote GOP and show us that you love your country more than you hate John McCain)
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To: tatown

ARG has McCain up by 2 so the polls are all over the place.
Its going to come down to GOTV and enthusiasm.


5 posted on 09/22/2008 9:41:01 AM PDT by bushsupporter30
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To: tatown
/shrug

SurveyUSA is sometimes volatile.

The race is very close in Virginia.

6 posted on 09/22/2008 9:41:24 AM PDT by JohnnyZ (This gun for hire)
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To: tatown
Survey USA is a leftist polling company and mostly wrong in their predictions.

My opinion, don't be a poll wonk, your blood pressure will thank you.

7 posted on 09/22/2008 9:41:32 AM PDT by DallasBiff
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To: tatown

Mr. Obama is spending a lot of many in VA and is convinced the Old Dominion is winnable.

This business on Wall Street is good for Mr. Obama and not Good for Mr. McCain.

Mac can make up the ground at the debate this Friday, but he’s got to be super sharp.


8 posted on 09/22/2008 9:42:01 AM PDT by RexBeach ("Americans never quit!" Douglas MacArthur)
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To: tatown

It would appear that he is spending tons of money on TV adds in Northern Virginia.


9 posted on 09/22/2008 9:42:30 AM PDT by bayliving (Democrats used to be funny. Now they're just plain dangerous.)
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To: tatown

I have seen other polls showing Mc Cain up by 5, 3, 2 and even. These state polls are all over the board. Saw two polls from Michigan the other day. One had Obama up by 1 the other by 12. I have seen polls from FL showing Mc Cain by 7 and others showing them even. Same in MN, WI and it goes on and on. It gets to the point where you can’t put any credibility in these polls.


10 posted on 09/22/2008 9:42:35 AM PDT by Old Retired Army Guy (tHE)
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To: tatown

Never mind....the internals are even bigger crap.

McCain/Palin only gets 39% of VIRGINIA women? And loses EVERY age group? (check that, statistical tie among Elderly....LOL)

Seriously, internals are crap here.


11 posted on 09/22/2008 9:43:18 AM PDT by TitansAFC (In 2008, please vote GOP and show us that you love your country more than you hate John McCain)
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To: tatown
This poll reflects a +5 advantage for Democrats in a state that is reliably right leaning in Presidential elections (8-9 points the past two). Even the Impeached Rapist never won Virginia. Dole carried it by two. And VA does not register by political party, so there's no hard numbers to compare this poll against except previous elections.

VA is still up for grabs, but I'm still expecting McCain/Palin to carry the state by 5-6 points.

12 posted on 09/22/2008 9:43:28 AM PDT by impeachedrapist (On Free Republic PBD [political bipolar disorder] rules!)
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To: TitansAFC

Bush won VA with 8.2% lead in 2004. McCain might not come close to that but has a pretty good chance.
Mark Warner is very popular there and his coattails are giving Obama a decent chance there but 30% of his voters are voting for McCain so think MCcain will pull it out in VA


13 posted on 09/22/2008 9:44:40 AM PDT by bushsupporter30
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To: tatown

Please note, all of the participating stations are ABC affiliates, which we all know, are completely in favor of Obama in November. Charles Gibson, anyone?

Another factor in this “poll” is that there are significant amounts of African American voters in those cities listed, so the reality is that this poll is probably closer to a McCain lead, in reality.

The press uses many types of psychology via images, semantics and spatial arrangement to convey their biases. Clearly, their strategy is to pump the idea that Barack Obama is winning everywhere, so why vote or why not join the Marxist Party and cheer for the predetermined “winner”?


14 posted on 09/22/2008 9:45:25 AM PDT by wac3rd (The MSM will accompany the Captain of the SS Marxist Titanic to the bottom of Lake Michigan)
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To: tatown

i campaigned in prince william county in northern virginia this past weekend. we have nothing to worry about. virginia will go for mccain.


15 posted on 09/22/2008 9:45:46 AM PDT by Katonah1980
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To: tatown

Here’s what barack mcgovern needs to win Virginia:
A) hold all of the White vote frenchie got in 2004
B) getting 95% of Black vote ( no poll anywhere has soon he is getting this )
C) an increase in Black turnout of 30%

This is as per Washington Post July 27, 2008.
If you believe he can do all three than you have to believe he will win Va. I have to ask which end of Va, was polled and how this lines up with the 70% base support the democrat ticket is suffering from as reported today by AP/PEW. Something is wrong here.


16 posted on 09/22/2008 9:45:49 AM PDT by jmaroneps37 (Conservatism is truth. Liberalism is lies.)
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To: impeachedrapist

I hope you are right. SUSA’s accuracy record is mixed, as I recall. If these numbers are correct though then it is a real worry. Even if McCain manages to pick off PA, he still loses without CO, IA, NM, and especially VA.


17 posted on 09/22/2008 9:46:39 AM PDT by TNCMAXQ
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To: tatown
I think its mislabeled. No way Obama has 51% in the Old Dominion state.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

18 posted on 09/22/2008 9:47:17 AM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: TitansAFC
Never mind....the internals are even bigger crap.

I agree. McCain/Palin are actually leading by 3 among indies, yet still losing by 6 in a right-leaning state? I don't think so.

19 posted on 09/22/2008 9:47:28 AM PDT by impeachedrapist (On Free Republic PBD [political bipolar disorder] rules!)
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To: tatown

What happened to the other 7%?


20 posted on 09/22/2008 9:47:51 AM PDT by Perdogg (Sen Robert Byrd - Ex community organizer)
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To: tatown

Sample composition

Dem 38%
GOP 33%
Independent 22%

Not sure where the other 7% fell.

I’m sure the Virginia electorate is more than 33% Republican. Sample looks bogus.


21 posted on 09/22/2008 9:49:02 AM PDT by Harry Wurzbach
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To: DallasBiff
Well, what you said is simply not true. In 2006, the top three polls for senate races were SurveyUSA (off by 1.5%), and only missed ONE race out of 49 called; Mason-Dixon had 14 called, (off by 1.4%), and had one wrong; and Rasmussen called eight and got all eight, with a margin of error of 1.4%.

SurveyUSA is extremely reliable, and this is not good news.

22 posted on 09/22/2008 9:49:12 AM PDT by LS ("Castles made of sand, fall in the sea . . . eventually." (Hendrix))
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To: tatown

I’m dubious about this and a lot of polls. I’ve followed several states closely on Intrade and Virginia has been in McCain’s column for some time. What’s changed? And Missouri, only wrong one time in a century is 2 to 1 for McCain.

I, of course, have no way of knowing but I suspect many of these polls are unreliable and controlled by Obama supporters and skewed to produce a favorable result. We know for a certainty that Obama and Axlerod will do anything and are behind all of the garbage directed at Palin.

It may work in the long run if enough imbeciles are persuaded that Obama is the wave of the future. Somehow I suspect that most people are not going to be taken in by this bag of wind. I could be wrong but I don’t think so.


23 posted on 09/22/2008 9:49:33 AM PDT by RichardW
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To: tatown
I hope it's an outlier. If we lose VA we're dead meat. I don't know where we're going to go to make up that many EVs. I know MI and PA look competitive but in the end I think they'll be heartbreakers. And winning NH and/or NM isn't going to make up the difference. Please, please, VA, put country first...
24 posted on 09/22/2008 9:50:16 AM PDT by chimera
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To: Red Steel

FRIDAY, SATURDAY, SUNDAY Polling!!!

This poll was already discredited by Virginia Politico’s at the Hedgehog Report.


25 posted on 09/22/2008 9:50:20 AM PDT by Wilder Effect
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To: tatown

One observation and one question. The meltdown on Wall Street hasn’t helped McCain/Palin. Question: Why is FR C R A W L I N G again??


26 posted on 09/22/2008 9:50:47 AM PDT by teletech (Friends don't let friends vote DemocRAT)
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To: tatown

Uh sure it is. Did the number of blacks double in VA or something.


27 posted on 09/22/2008 9:51:33 AM PDT by cw35
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To: LS

The Rep base sat out the election in 2006.
Better years to compare are 2000,2002 and 2004.


28 posted on 09/22/2008 9:52:20 AM PDT by bushsupporter30
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To: TNCMAXQ; jmaroneps37; goldstategop; tatown
A blast from the past (2004 Survey USA poll on VA, days before the election):

Kerry Too Close to Bush for GOP's Comfort

They called it 51-47 for Bush, three days before the election. Kerry had abandoned the Old Dominion weeks before. Bush won by about 9 points, slightly improving his 8-point margin four years earlier.

29 posted on 09/22/2008 9:52:31 AM PDT by impeachedrapist (On Free Republic PBD [political bipolar disorder] rules!)
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To: LS

LS, SUSA is okay at best.

This is the same outfit that had McCain up by 20% in NC recently.

Battleground the only pollster that has no bias, unlike SUSA and Gallup, has McCain up +1 today.


30 posted on 09/22/2008 9:53:56 AM PDT by Wilder Effect
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To: what_not2007

I’m no expert but I live in Richmond and go to No.Va a lot. I’ve noticed fewer BO stickers than ever. It’s as if people have taken them off of their cars. McCain/Palin attracted 20,000 to Fairfax 2 weeks ago. Michelle BO can’t get to the 1,000 mark in communist Madison, Wisconsin.

Just a few “regular guy” observations coupled with a lot of reading and some common sense tells me these polls are cooked and/or a reflection of flawed polling with weighty Dems over Pubbies etc.

Debates will dictate how this election goes.


31 posted on 09/22/2008 9:54:01 AM PDT by albie
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To: Red Steel
Not too much an outlier. Here are the last four from RealClearPolitics:

SurveyUSA 09/19 - 09/21 716 LV 45 51 Obama +6

InAdv/PollPosition 09/17 - 09/17 502 LV 48 46 McCain +2

National Journal/FD 09/11 - 09/15 400 RV 48 41 McCain +7

FOX News/Rasmussen 09/14 - 09/14 500 LV 48 48 Tie

So it looks like the National Journal and SurveyUSA offset, and it's a 1-2 point race in VA.

32 posted on 09/22/2008 9:54:07 AM PDT by LS ("Castles made of sand, fall in the sea . . . eventually." (Hendrix))
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To: tatown

Looks like I might be working Virginia and staying closer to home this election.


33 posted on 09/22/2008 9:55:10 AM PDT by jimfree (Dems beat up girls who don't toe the line.)
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To: Old Retired Army Guy

Obama is pouring money in VA. It might work.


34 posted on 09/22/2008 9:58:40 AM PDT by RED SOUTH
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To: LS
And if I remeber correctly, you LS when I was lurking on FR, you yourself were predicting that the GOP was going to hold Congress in 2006. So why should i trust your opinion?

Also aren't you a college professor, and may have a vested interest in keeping alive the polling industry.

35 posted on 09/22/2008 10:00:18 AM PDT by DallasBiff
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To: TNCMAXQ

Under that scenario—McCain picks up Pa. but loses Va., Colo., NM and Iowa—McCain still wins if he keeps the rest of the Bush states. If Obama loses Pa., it’s going to be very difficult for Obama to win the election.


36 posted on 09/22/2008 10:02:33 AM PDT by Looper
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To: tatown

Another weekend poll from Survey USA. Hardly surprising numbers. McCain is probably up by between 2 and 5 in Virginia right now and other polls bear that out.


37 posted on 09/22/2008 10:03:22 AM PDT by ReagansRaiders (Bob McDonnell for (Virginia) Governor - 2009)
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To: tatown

VA is definitely in play. Obama has set up 52 campaign offices throughout the state. McCain will have 10. Absentee balloting begins today. This will be a close race.


38 posted on 09/22/2008 10:04:03 AM PDT by kabar (.)
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To: LS
and it's a 1-2 point race in VA.

Which would be consistent with how the campaigns are behaving and spending money. And I'd make that a 2-pt advantage for McCain/Palin, which I expect to increase a bit before November.

Look at it this way. In 2006, a horrible year for the GOP, a former Republican with a strong military background had to go into overtime to defeat George Allen. (Granted George had the incumbency advantage, but Webb had strong name recognition.) But how would such a result translate into a 6-point Obama victory, during a Presidential year? It wouldn't. Factor in the SUSA internals, its immediate previous result with VA Presidential elections, and this poll really isn't worth worrying about.

I'd truly be worried about VA if the GOP were taking it for granted. That's not the case. McCain/Palin just visited there, drawing a huge crowd. They're spending $$$ to advertise in VA, and their national campaign HQ is headquartered in Arlington VA.

39 posted on 09/22/2008 10:05:45 AM PDT by impeachedrapist (On Free Republic PBD [political bipolar disorder] rules!)
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To: tatown

Wasn’t Mondale up by 18%...? be VERY sceptical of ALL polls... a lot of folks lie for the fun of it....and many folks think the media and poll-takers have their own agenda so they say crazy stuff...


40 posted on 09/22/2008 10:07:07 AM PDT by rusureitflies? (OSAMA BIN LADEN IS DEAD! There, I said it. Prove me wrong.)
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To: TNCMAXQ

In that scenario, McCain would win with 273 electorals.


41 posted on 09/22/2008 10:08:19 AM PDT by Wilder Effect
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To: kabar
Obama has set up 52 campaign offices throughout the state. McCain will have 10.

And how many offices did the Obamessiah have in Montana? North Dakota?

42 posted on 09/22/2008 10:09:06 AM PDT by impeachedrapist (On Free Republic PBD [political bipolar disorder] rules!)
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To: Looper

I forgot to include NV in that scenario. If that goes blue also, then McCain loses even he takes PA. That outcome is highly unlikely though. If McCain manages to take PA then he ought to win VA as well. If the once great commonwealth of VA slips over to the bad guys then it is possible McCain could still take CO and/or NV, in which case he would win assuming he scores an upset win in PA.


43 posted on 09/22/2008 10:09:25 AM PDT by TNCMAXQ
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To: LS

#the internals are even bigger crap.#

55% of respondents were college graduates LOL!
That can’t be realistic!


44 posted on 09/22/2008 10:12:01 AM PDT by mrsmith
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To: tatown
This is bull. Most other polls in VA have McCain up 3-5 points. democrats have gotten elected here in the last couple of elections because the Republicans running ran terrible races and the rats ran as conservatives. That won't work for Obama.

Palin was scheduled to appear in VA Beach on the 18th but she cancelled. This followed the huge rally in Northern Virginia the week before...the most left leaning part of the state. Watch what the candidates are doing. If McCain's campaign thought they were really down in VA there's no way Palin would have cancelled last week in VA Beach.

45 posted on 09/22/2008 10:12:18 AM PDT by pgkdan (Tolerance is the virtue of the man without convictions - G.K. Chesterton)
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To: kabar

You seem to be a very negative person, do you think Obama will win?


46 posted on 09/22/2008 10:14:15 AM PDT by Perdogg (Sen Robert Byrd - Ex community organizer)
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To: tatown

CNU Virginia Poll McCain +9
National Journal/FD McCain +7


47 posted on 09/22/2008 10:15:48 AM PDT by 1035rep
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To: impeachedrapist

I would much rather be defending states like CO and VA. Meanwhile, Barry has to to defend MN, MI, PA and WI. Until this poll, VA had been trending red, I don’t think that one poll is enought to reverse the trend.


48 posted on 09/22/2008 10:16:14 AM PDT by Don'tMessWithTexas
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To: tatown

We need to return Arlington to the District of Columbia.
(and throw in Alexandria too.)


49 posted on 09/22/2008 10:17:30 AM PDT by outofsalt ("If History teaches us anything it's that history rarely teaches us anything")
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To: TNCMAXQ

If Barry wins VA, McCain will not be able to take a state like PA. But if McCain take PA, he will also probably take, in addition to VA, states like MI and WI too.


50 posted on 09/22/2008 10:19:51 AM PDT by Don'tMessWithTexas
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