Posted on 09/22/2008 12:18:58 PM PDT by Free ThinkerNY
The margins in Gallup and Rasmussen are unchanged from yesterday and probably/hopefully won’t move much before Friday’s debate so we need new polls to obsess over. How does Virginia turnin’ baby blue grab you?
Since 1952, Virginia has voted Republican 13 times and Democrat only once, in 1964. Today: In the Washington DC suburbs, Obama now polls at 59% and leads McCain by 21 points. Obama leads by 10 in Southeast VA and by 4 in Central VA. McCain’s regional advantage is confined to the Shenandoah, where he is 14 points atop Obama. Among women, Obama led by 6 points before Sarah Palin was named to the GOP ticket, now leads by 16. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released one week ago, Obama is up 1 point; McCain is down 1 point; compared to a SurveyUSA poll two weeks ago, Obama is up 4, McCain is down 4.
(Excerpt) Read more at hotair.com ...
That’s got to be an outlier.
troll polls....
There’s no way Obama is up six in VA and only up two in PA. The women voter numbers don’t make sense either.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
Hotair about says it!...Inside poll irrelevant.
SURVEY USA...SPONSORED BY MIAMI HERALD!!!!
JUNK!
I live in tidewater and have a cabin in Shenandoah...if I could vote twice I would [just kidding]
SurveyUSA From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia Jump to: navigation, search SurveyUSA is a polling firm in the United States. It conducts market research for corporations and interest groups, but is best known for conducting opinion polls for various political offices and questions. SurveyUSA conducts these opinion polls under contract by over 50 television stations (who also use the SurveyUSA market research to fine tune their newscasts for higher ratings). The difference between SurveyUSA and other telephone polling firms is two fold. First, SurveyUSA does not use live call center employees, but an automated system. Taped questions are asked of the respondent by a professional announcer (usually a local news anchor), and the respondent is invited to press a button on their touch tone telephone or record a message at a prompt designating their selection. Secondly, SurveyUSA uses more concise language, especially for ballot propositions, than competitors. This can lead to diverging results, such as for California Proposition 76, where one version of the SurveyUSA question with a one sentence description, polled significantly differently compared to another version with a three sentence description (which was similar to a version of the question used by other pollsters, which used a five or six sentence question). [1] SurveyUSA is owned by Hypotenuse, Inc., a privately-held company in New Jersey.
Either Survey USA has drunk the koolaide, or McCain has a much bigger problem that Governor Palin cannot fix.
2004:
“#1 - (drum roll, please) Survey USA. SUSA made predictions in 30 states, and in 9 Battleground States. SUSA got 29 right and 1 wrong, and was off by an average of 3.70 points. So, why does SUSA win with 29/30, and beat RR take second with 33/33? It comes down to hitting the bullseye. EIGHTEEN of Survey USA’s final polls were the closest for that state, almost twice as many as every other major poll PUT TOGETHER! Also, none of their polls were invalidated for being more than 10 points off. In the Battleground States, SUSA got 8 right and 1 wrong, and was off by an average of 3.44 points. Three of SUSA’s final polls in Battleground States were the closest for that state, again the best of any poll.”
Most of these polls are basing their surveys on registered voters, rather than likely voters. Registered voter results always slant Democrat more than likely voter surveys do. The likely voter polls are also generally much more indicative of eventual election outcome.
McCain had a very rough week last week. It initially looked like the bad economic news might knock him out permanently. He regained his footing, however, and ended the week pretty strong.
I still feel good about our chances in Virginia, but the race is no doubt extremely close there right now.
Last week a newspaper poll in VA showed McCain up by 9. There is no way that there was a shift of 15+ points in one week. This is at best ludicrous.
If this were their final poll, I would be much more concerned.
These polls now have become no different than the front page of any newspaper in the country. The integrity of our system is gone, only November 4th will tell the real story. Sad
The polling sample is worthless in that it is not limited to registered voters who are likely to vote. In fact, the poll is not even limited to registered voters.
The only way I could even begin to see this as being accurate is if Warner needed votes to win the Senate seat and Democrats turned out in massive amounts. That is not necessary as Warner will easily win the seat and not need a push for additional votes. My prediction is Warner wins the Democratic Senate seat and McCain wins Virginia overall.
True. I seem to recall their polls being all over the place and changing at the last moment.
"Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 900 Virginia adults 09/19/08 through 09/21/08. Of the adults, 818 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 716 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely voters in the 11/04/08 general election.
This poll is worse than worthless. It's intentionally deceiving and designed to shape opinion and voting trends.
If Virginia turns blue, McCain might be doomed.
That being said, I will be surprised if Virginia’s reasonable voters turn to Hussein.
Isn’t Virginia home of the Wilder Effect?
AllahPundit Hates Sarah Palin . He is bitter over Romney not getting the NOD. The posters openly mock him on HOTAIR and infact Ed and Michele need to pull him off. HOTAIR is worthless to read now thanks to his non stop Palin bashing. His analysis is skewed crap and worthless.
It is turning blue but it won’t go blue this time. Overtime though with the explosion of NOVA and the explosion of the latino population it’ll be very hard to keep it red.
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=c16bc98c-8d29-4b28-8aae-fc8aac9471ad
Survey USA does not do registered voter polls. Hotair cited the breakdown of the respondents to SurveyUSA’s calls. They release that info in the interest of full disclosure, but only count the likely voters in their results. Full info is at the link above.
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