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Rasmussen 9/24/2008: Obama 49% McCain 47%
Rasmussen ^

Posted on 09/24/2008 6:33:17 AM PDT by CatOwner

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows Barack Obama attracting 49% of the vote while John McCain earns 47%. It’s the first time in more than two weeks that Obama has enjoyed a lead larger than a single percentage point (see trends). Both men are now viewed favorably by 55% and Rasmussen Markets data currently gives Obama a 52.0% chance of victory (see market results for key states) ...

(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: electionpresident; mccainpalin
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Yesterday must have been a real bad polling day for McCain.
1 posted on 09/24/2008 6:33:18 AM PDT by CatOwner
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To: CatOwner

All within the margin of error.

With weighting favoring Demoncrats I am not worried but witll step up the pace to insure victory for McCain/Palin. Take NO chances.


2 posted on 09/24/2008 6:35:17 AM PDT by nmh (Intelligent people recognize Intelligent Design (God).)
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To: CatOwner

“National security is a distant second at 19%.”

_________________________

That will certainly change before the election.


3 posted on 09/24/2008 6:35:51 AM PDT by 1curiousmind (Obama is Guilty FOR associating....with a domestic terrorist)
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To: CatOwner

He keeps going RINO on these fiscal issues. He loses ground every time he does.


4 posted on 09/24/2008 6:36:31 AM PDT by perfect_rovian_storm (Palin 2008 (oh yeah, and McCain too))
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To: CatOwner

Maybe He should reconsider His Como endorsement. Start acting as a conservative. He wants our vote, earn it.


5 posted on 09/24/2008 6:37:45 AM PDT by reefdiver (He voted to Kill the infants - Because the intended Abortion was unsuccessful. You think your safe)
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To: 1curiousmind

It’s just looking for McCain, not matter what. He hasn’t lead Obama in polling with the exception of his convention bump. I don’t get it considering groups like women and independents have shifted to McCain.
It’s the fact Wall Street took another dive again this week?
Maybe. McCain’s economic message isn’t exactly clear. I know Obama’s isnt either, but people watching the news think this is BUSH, because he’s been the President for 8 years.


6 posted on 09/24/2008 6:38:25 AM PDT by snarkytart
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To: CatOwner

Somebody please wake me up when this is over.


7 posted on 09/24/2008 6:38:36 AM PDT by yobid (Tax me MORE so I can FEEL patriotic)
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To: CatOwner

ouch
mccain really must have polled badly last nite to see a two point jump. hard to believe with joe biden looking like an idiot all day.
im scared to see gallup this morning!!


8 posted on 09/24/2008 6:39:03 AM PDT by housedeep
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To: CatOwner

Man, I hope McCain does well in the debates. And after the VP debate, let’s hope Sarah Palin does more media interviews. I am fearful that McCain might lose this election. That would be a complete disaster, especially if the Republicans lose a lot of seats in the Senate. We’ll get card check, some goofy Supreme Court justices, fairness doctrine, higher taxes, more regulation, and socialized health care. Man, we’re going to end up worse than France.


9 posted on 09/24/2008 6:39:32 AM PDT by Koblenz (The Dem Platform, condensed: 1. Tax and Spend. 2. Cut and Run. 3. Man on Man)
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To: CatOwner

The press is winning this bailout business. We have to get ahead of it.


10 posted on 09/24/2008 6:40:02 AM PDT by DRey
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To: housedeep

its a dead even race going into the debates


11 posted on 09/24/2008 6:40:28 AM PDT by scooby321 (Cai)
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To: CatOwner

What amazes me is that McCain has ever been ahead in this RAS poll.

Is the sample still 5 to 7% Democrat.

I respect Scott, but until the weight on his polling is accurate, I will stick with BattleGround.


12 posted on 09/24/2008 6:40:45 AM PDT by Wilder Effect
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To: housedeep
with joe biden looking like an idiot all day

The MSM made sure most people didn't hear any of it.

13 posted on 09/24/2008 6:40:51 AM PDT by Mojave
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To: CatOwner
Rasmussen is weighting it: Dems 39%, Reps 33%.

The 2004 election turnout was Dems 37%, Reps 37%

14 posted on 09/24/2008 6:41:50 AM PDT by avacado
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To: CatOwner

So why does the battleground poll have McCain up by two and this tracking poll have the exact opposite? Has Rasmussen changed its political affliation percentage again ? That Operation Chaos has screwed up these registered /likely voter percentages formula for Ras this year. His poll is bouncing around like a yo yo.


15 posted on 09/24/2008 6:42:24 AM PDT by ncalburt
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To: avacado

Yes, but for some reason Rasmussen get’s it right in the end, because he had the 2004 election right on the nose using the same Dem vs Repub percentages.


16 posted on 09/24/2008 6:43:36 AM PDT by snarkytart
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To: Wilder Effect

I think McCain was ahead a few times with Rasmussen.


17 posted on 09/24/2008 6:44:21 AM PDT by snarkytart
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To: CatOwner

McCain had better wipe the floor with Obama in the debates.

I simply can’t believe that Obama is polling this well. This can’t be right. Many, many Hillary voters are anti-Obama, so where the heck is Obama getting those extra votes from in these polls? And why isn’t the swing in women voters giving McCain a bigger boost?


18 posted on 09/24/2008 6:45:34 AM PDT by beagleone
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To: Koblenz

I don’t want to see Obama win either, but with the financial mess we’re in, even Obama came out yesterday and said he won’t be able to afford to implement his “plans” if he’s elected.

That’s a point I think McCain needs to hammer home during the economic debates. Obama’s promised the moon, but now that the financial mess has us where we are, he won’t be able to deliver. So if you’re voting for him because you think you’ll get “x, y, or z”...better rethink because he can’t deliver.


19 posted on 09/24/2008 6:46:35 AM PDT by Dawn531
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To: CatOwner
I really can't take much more of this. This is lunacy that so many people think this idiot, BO, can lead this country to anything but destruction.

I get so worked up reading how he is ahead, that I need to take a step back & do a lot more praying that he will NOT be elected!

20 posted on 09/24/2008 6:46:52 AM PDT by blondee123 (Vote for the HERO, not the ZERO! Is PRESENT a vote???)
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To: snarkytart
I'm actually relieved that if there was going to be an economic crisis, that it happened now and not two weeks before the election.

There is still time for things to settle down.
21 posted on 09/24/2008 6:48:25 AM PDT by beagleone
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To: snarkytart

Yes he was. But my point was how could any Republican be ahead when RAS has the DEM sample so high?


22 posted on 09/24/2008 6:48:33 AM PDT by Wilder Effect
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To: Dawn531
I don’t want to see Obama win either, but with the financial mess we’re in, even Obama came out yesterday and said he won’t be able to afford to implement his “plans” if he’s elected.

I thought the news said he wouldn't be able to implement his plans "right away".

Make no mistake, if he gets elected, he will turn this country into a marxist state. He will do it little by little, just as they are doing with all the other new government controls on our lives, so as we're not to notice any of this control going on!

23 posted on 09/24/2008 6:49:26 AM PDT by blondee123 (Vote for the HERO, not the ZERO! Is PRESENT a vote???)
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To: avacado
Scott Ras knows these percentages are crap . Bambi and his Obama media thugs were crying and screaming during the primaries that Rush was the reason Hillary won all the late primaries .
But Scott just sticks to a his old formula for some reason.
I suspect Scott likes to be a DC insider with all the Lib TV appearances and if your poll shows McCain ahead there is no invite.
24 posted on 09/24/2008 6:49:31 AM PDT by ncalburt
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To: Dawn531

I’m waiting for the debates.


25 posted on 09/24/2008 6:49:50 AM PDT by AU72
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To: CatOwner

I’m beginning to wonder how much impact the debates will really have. If this financial crisis persists, then the election may already be decided....


26 posted on 09/24/2008 6:50:04 AM PDT by tatown (How to piss off a liberal: Work hard and be happy!)
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To: housedeep
ouch mccain really must have polled badly last nite to see a two point jump. hard to believe with joe biden looking like an idiot all day.

Yeah, I think it was a bad enough today to guarantee that McCain will not be ahead or maybe even tied on Friday when the first edbate occurs. Many here are predicting that McCain will wipe the floor with Obama, but I don't sense that.

27 posted on 09/24/2008 6:50:08 AM PDT by CatOwner
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To: CatOwner

today => yesterday
edbate => debate


28 posted on 09/24/2008 6:51:40 AM PDT by CatOwner
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To: CatOwner

Work hard for McCain, my friends, or you will definitely face a gloomy future on November 5th.


29 posted on 09/24/2008 6:54:26 AM PDT by popdonnelly (I'll tell you a little secret: we're smarter and more competent than the Left.)
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To: nmh
FROM THE WEBSITE During August, the number of Americans who consider themselves to be Republicans increased two percentage points to 33.2% while the number of Democrats was little changed at 38.9%.

Scott takes great pains at trying to determine the turnout ratios after the 2000 election and the "November Surprise" (Bush's DUI). However, at this point it does not seem he is trying to get to likely voters. Even in 2006, the RATS did not have a 5.7 point margin.

30 posted on 09/24/2008 6:54:56 AM PDT by 11th Commandment (Obama- new socialism for a new generation that never heard of Hitler, Stalin and Mao)
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To: nmh
FROM THE WEBSITE During August, the number of Americans who consider themselves to be Republicans increased two percentage points to 33.2% while the number of Democrats was little changed at 38.9%.

Scott takes great pains at trying to determine the turnout ratios after the 2000 election and the "November Surprise" (Bush's DUI). However, at this point it does not seem he is trying to get to likely voters. Even in 2006, the RATS did not have a 5.7 point margin.

31 posted on 09/24/2008 6:55:02 AM PDT by 11th Commandment (Obama- new socialism for a new generation that never heard of Hitler, Stalin and Mao)
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To: CatOwner

I fear the same old formula is playing here, namely, economy bad, party A in White House, average voter votes party B regardless of what party B is planning to do. Difference for the sake of difference. But hey, sometimes you get the government you deserve.


32 posted on 09/24/2008 6:56:14 AM PDT by FlipWilson
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To: CatOwner

49% Of Americans wants to see social engineering continue at an accelerated pace.


33 posted on 09/24/2008 6:57:47 AM PDT by NoLibZone (Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac - are not facing any kind of financial crisis,'' Barney Frank 9-10-03)
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To: CatOwner

Frankly, I don’t think either senator is worth a bucket of warm spit; however, I will be in there because of Palin.


34 posted on 09/24/2008 6:58:18 AM PDT by pt17
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To: ncalburt

I just checked RealClear. When you actually click on the Battleground link and go to the graph it shows McCain up by 3. It was 2 for yesterday.


35 posted on 09/24/2008 6:58:35 AM PDT by nailspitter
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To: 11th Commandment

The press is winning this bailout business. We have to get ahead of it. The propagandists in the media are blaming the GOP and are getting away with it- this is the story .


36 posted on 09/24/2008 6:59:02 AM PDT by libscum (don't sit out- vote Mccain)
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To: CatOwner
Many here are predicting that McCain will wipe the floor with Obama, but I don't sense that.

This is what has me worried. The same thing happened in the '04 debates. FReepers were all giddy and bubbly and wriggly-jiggly that Bush was going to clobber Kerry in the debates. Guess what? Bush lost.

McCain has to be very very careful of the presentation effect. Remember, this is the mainstream media we're talking about. They're going to do all they can to present McCain as a tired old man and Obama as the vigorous, youthful comer. Everyone keeps saying how Obama can't do anything without a teleprompter. Well, it may turn out that he just might not need it. There was a story on Drudge about O'Bammy taking three days off from the campaign to prep for the debate. McCain better not go into it cold or too cocky, or he may get his head handed to him.

Before the flames start, no, it isn't wishful thinking on my part. I'm pulling for McCain and Palin. I'm just saying debates are always a roll of the dice, and anything can happen.

37 posted on 09/24/2008 6:59:21 AM PDT by chimera
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To: FlipWilson
I fear the same old formula is playing here, namely, economy bad, party A in White House, average voter votes party B regardless of what party B is planning to do. Difference for the sake of difference. But hey, sometimes you get the government you deserve.

Seems like a repeat of 1992, only this time the economy is really in bad shape and the Bush hate is stronger now than in 1992.

38 posted on 09/24/2008 6:59:27 AM PDT by CatOwner
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To: nailspitter

Oops. I shouldn’t check this stuff this early. McCain is up 2 in Battleground. He was only up 1 yesterday.


39 posted on 09/24/2008 7:03:39 AM PDT by nailspitter
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To: CatOwner

Bradley effect


40 posted on 09/24/2008 7:04:23 AM PDT by MNnice (Da ma Dakota)
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To: CatOwner
Yesterday must have been a real bad polling day for McCain.

Apparently. Replacing Saturday's polling with yesterday's polling caused McCain to lose 2 points, which is rare in this poll to the point that it may be an outlier (which statistically will happen approximately 5% of the time).

I suppose we should wait for Gallup to see if it reports the same thing. To be sure, in that poll a good McCain Saturday is going to drop off and Obama had a good Sunday, so it may be hard to tell.

41 posted on 09/24/2008 7:05:46 AM PDT by kesg
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To: Dawn531
but Obama said he still plans to “tax the rich” -- disaster.
42 posted on 09/24/2008 7:07:37 AM PDT by TornadoAlley3 (Lipstick wearing Okie Moosehead!)
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To: blondee123
relax...McCain has already won this election.
43 posted on 09/24/2008 7:08:41 AM PDT by TornadoAlley3 (Lipstick wearing Okie Moosehead!)
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To: nailspitter

thanks. what are there party splits ?


44 posted on 09/24/2008 7:09:51 AM PDT by ncalburt
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To: avacado

Rasmussen is weighting it: Dems 39%, Reps 33%.

The 2004 election turnout was Dems 37%, Reps 37%

And the spread has never been greater than 4 points in any Presidential election since 1988. Still, even if the lead is arguably less than two points, it seems obvious that McCain did not have a very good polling night last night. That's okay. It is going to happen from time to time. The beauty of a tracking poll is that the bad nights drop out in a few days.

45 posted on 09/24/2008 7:10:05 AM PDT by kesg
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To: snarkytart

In 2000 Ras was terrible, calling it +5/+6 for Bush all the time. That was way off. In 2004, he got it right.

Now, he may be oversampling Republicans again. If he calls it O +2, it may be closer to O +3/+4, imo. Yesterday was obviously a very bad polling day for McCain, for no clear reason.

To win, McCain needs to hold all five of CO, VA, NV, OH and FL.
If the election took place today, McCain would lose CO (definitely), VA (likely) and possibly NV and OH as well. He is in about the same shape Kerry was before the first debate. Kerry managed to make it closer, though never quite got back to even in the RCP average.


46 posted on 09/24/2008 7:10:26 AM PDT by ubaldus
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To: ubaldus

Nonsense. McCain is ahead right now in VA and OH.


47 posted on 09/24/2008 7:12:17 AM PDT by snarkytart
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To: snarkytart
Yes, but for some reason Rasmussen get’s it right in the end, because he had the 2004 election right on the nose using the same Dem vs Repub percentages.

I don't know that he used the same D vs R percentages. I do know that he screwed up badly in 2000, when he wasn't weighting by party ID, and switched to party weighting in 2004. But I don't remember him giving Ds a six point advantage, and in any event in 2004 the same number of Republicans voted as Democrats (percentages were 37D, 37R, and the rest Is).

48 posted on 09/24/2008 7:12:32 AM PDT by kesg
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To: CatOwner
The stock market and credit markets crashing while Congress is doing nothing except producing volumes of hot air probably has something to do with it.

Either the economic sentiment will improve, or Congress will leave town without doing anything and we'll all be living in huts on $1/week like Obama's brother. I doubt politicians want to go into the election with the voters in bread lines, so I'll take a wild guess that a rescue bill in some form will pass.

49 posted on 09/24/2008 7:13:04 AM PDT by Sooth2222 ("Suppose you were an idiot. And suppose you were a member of congress. But I repeat myself." M.Twain)
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To: popdonnelly

Work hard for Mccain? But the guy is an idiot!!!!! Who does he think he is? Pulling a RINO on me? Does he think that he has already won the presidency by choosing Palin?

He absolutely deserves his poor polling result when it comes to Economy. Even before he becomes president he has already breached his promises. He said it over and over again during his stump speech that he would make those corruption people in Washington famous by calling out their names. Ok, then why is he NOT calling out Dodd, Frank’s names in the past few weeks? Instead he called out Chris Cox?? Give me a break John Mccain, you are a disgrace. If it’s not because of Sarah Palin, I wouldn’t even hire you to clean my toilet.

John Mccain deserves to Lose, Obama does not deserve to win.


50 posted on 09/24/2008 7:14:00 AM PDT by FreeFromLiberalizm
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