I’m curious....does anyone have links to the 2004 election polling data? I seem to recall that Kerry was leading Pres. Bush in the polls at about the same time...This article from the Gallup web site talks about the final poll of 2004.
Gallup Poll
Posted on 09/24/2008 7:25:25 AM PDT by tatown
Obama 48%, McCain 42% which is up 2 points for Obama since yesterday.
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
Well, it’s registered voters, which means it’s really 46-42, not good, but not as bad as it really seems. But we’d have to know their Dem/Republican/Independent sample to really know what to make of this.
THe MSM is blaming the GOP for this fin. mess. The Lord Messiah will save everybody. The stupid idiots are actually believeing this BS. Unreal.
McCain has got to come out of hiding and offer a solution. And President Bush needs to grab his teleprompter and address the nation and call people out, who did what and why, what he did to prevent it that wasn’t passed by Congress, and what our options are. Bush needs to do this for us all...TONIGHT.
I’m curious....does anyone have links to the 2004 election polling data? I seem to recall that Kerry was leading Pres. Bush in the polls at about the same time...
Info anyone?
I think the trend is clear, and yes, I’d say its the financial crisis, a sort of negative “bounce”, we would hope. I think the debate is going to be pretty important for McCain. Hope he does ok.
Battleground has a pretty good track record. It is done by a joint Democrat and Republican pollsters.
Yikes!
Let us continue the fight and see. McCain should be bold and come out against the Bailout.
Huh??
It’s obvious, panic is in the air, you in?
Abandon ship, abandon ship, leave your children, guns, money and freedoms on the deck, jump into the sea of communism.
Oh wait, can I keep my guns ...
Didn’t you hear, the drive by media is all in for Obama — The nice, clean, articulate, black guy who is trying to convince you he is an accomplished American. You did get the memo didn’t you?
Kerry by 4, the exit polls never lie.
Rush went over this in his show yesterday, polls are next to useless. They take a sampling of people, divide them up by supposed party affiliation, take those raw numbers and apply some special sauce..ie expected turnout, voter enthusiasm, etc. Well I can make 2+2 =7 in polling logic applying adjustments to raw numbers also.
...yea a Marxists Black guy...good luck with that
Rush Limbaugh
That’s a concern, that Obama will ride the Wall Street troubles right into the White House. He will blame everything on Bush (even though the roots of this go back to the Clinton administration), say that McCain is more of the same, and then win the election appealing to voters fears of what happens next on Wall Street.
This is so stupid. He was all about the new politics, changing the way we do business in Washington, and all that. Yet it appears he could win this election by playing on people’s worst fears, rather than appealing to their better nature.
but the financial crisis has Democrat written all over it, not to mention Obama being the recipient of a generous portion of Fannie Mae, and the connection of two of Fannie Mae’s top guys on Obama’s advisory team.
But then again, the MSM hasn’t told the public this so, nevermind... .
but the financial crisis has Democrat written all over it, not to mention Obama being the recipient of a generous portion of Fannie Mae, and the connection of two of Fannie Mae’s top guys on Obama’s advisory team.
But then again, the MSM hasn’t told the public this so, nevermind... .
Some rough polling today, but some not-so-rough other polling recently.
The financial crisis is hurting McCain, clearly. Obama benefits from folks being skittish, not so much for any economic proposals he advocates.
There is a tendency on FR to jucice up polls that show McCain behind. I’m inclined to think that the polls on balance are accurate - if most polls tell you Obama is 3-4 points ahead, that’s probably pretty accurate.
I wouldn’t place stock in a Bradley polling problem, nor would I find much solace in noting the polls are oversampling dems - there are more dems this election cycle than GOPers, so that makes some sense. I’d suggest we stick to likely voter polls, though.
This pollster is left leaning. Do not freak until you see internals
This was run by NBC political director, Chuck Todd, for a long time.
Do you see the 50%? No
This is all a push by the left to prop Obama up before the debates, which they think Obama will lose.
McCain was 24+ ahead in TN yesterday...
TN is the mostest for McCain...
:)
Sorry but I don’t buy a 17 point change in white women over the past week.
A 17% SWING IN WHITE WOMEN FROM MCCAIN UP 16% TO DOWN 1% IN ONE WEEK.
I am not sure I buy this media driven stereotype that voters believe Democrats are better for the economy. Clinton only received 43% of the vote in ‘92 when it was about nothing but the economy.
We need to keep exposing the internals of these polls as they are being used to make news, not report it.
Just came for Drudge and he has a picture of the smug black messiah making a fist like the black panthers! I still don’t believe this, NO WAY NO HOW....I’m getting a little nervous but GOD will help us win this battle. The Tsunami of evil spewed by the RATS and their accomplices is beyond anything I have EVER witnessed. I serve a God who deals with the impossible, I serve a MIGHTY God who deals severely with evil doers. I serve a God who listens to the cries of his people. I serve a KING who has the power to turn the hearts of people to do the right thing. I serve a MASTER who turns situations around... what satan meant for evil HE will turn it around for good. I have to believe I serve a MIGHTY GOD! Fix your eyes on Him don’t look at the situation, but put your faith in him. IF ever we needed Him most it’s now. Call upon him and he will answer. I’m NOT willing to surrender my COUNTRY over to Satan’s cronies yet! The SPIRITUAL fight has just began. Please, I implore you, FAST AND PRAY. This is the only way we can defeat the demons and their plans. PLEASE, PLEASE..God Doesn't need an army of millions but a handful of faithful believers who are willing to take a stand in the middle of the Storm by faith believing without wavering that God can do all things! Even this to turn an election to favor McPAL! Join me with prayer and fasting."
Outlier? Battlegound has had McCain up or tied 5 days in a row.
IIRC — 2004 — Day before, Kerry by 4-6, the day of Kerry by 4, exit polls never lie, they said Kerry by 4.
Bush won by 3.5%.
Swing was out of the range of margin, polls ceased to be useful after 2000 they just manipulate news cycles.
But now, we have the ‘widler effect’ how do you poll for that?
His reaction has been weak and he’s suffering for it now.
We have a very flawed candidate, who’s first instincts are unfortunately not much different than a Dem’s.
People REALLY aren’t happy with fiscal RINOism. They see it in Bush and McCain doesn’t seem to be smart enough to see the handwriting on the wall.
McCain never was a great candidate, the Republicans are the incumbents with an unpopular President and an unpopular war and now we have economic deterioration. These all point to trouble for McCain. The problem with the Palin bounce is that people vote for the President not Vice President. Maybe we will have to live with Obama for 4 years and hope that Palin is ready to challenge him in 2012.
Thanks Rose. We survived the:
1. The Bush DUI
2. Rathergate
3. Bogus Exit Polls
They were much more dire than a MSM poll bomb propping up Obama.
That’s it.
Get the bailout defined, passed and signed and OFF THE RADAR SCREEN. The public has decided and this election is over as long as Wall Street stays on the radar screen.
I thank God I’m not a poll junkie anymore. My blood pressure thanks me.
I thank God I’m not a poll junkie anymore. My blood pressure thanks me.
Wow how convenient - a 6% lead right after the stories came out saying that Obama needs at least a 6% lead to offset the Bradley effect.
I’m curious....does anyone have links to the 2004 election polling data? I seem to recall that Kerry was leading Pres. Bush in the polls at about the same time...This article from the Gallup web site talks about the final poll of 2004.
Gallup Poll
If true, it means McCain’s own statements have boosted the Obama campaign. Can Barrack get Juan to mention Cuomo again?
Why does everyone forget to seem forget the negatives about Obama, and him being a bad candidate?
He is a Muslim from a liberal City with a Marxist agenda.
Battleground had Bush up by 7 at this point. Ras had him up by 2.8.
Kelly Conway, the Republican Pollster called the last election EXACTLY. I’ll listen to her and she says McCain is going to win. If we have to be bombarded with polls, which mean nothing right now, you might as well watch the one that’s going to make you feel good.
All you need to read is:
“McCain 42%”
To know what crap is. I think I can definitively declare that McCain will not lose in a bigger landslide than Walter Mondale or Jimmy Carter.
I think you are right. I was so uninterested in this election with McCain as the candidate. Palin is who brought me to the table. SHe is not enough, she is only the VP pick. When the dust settled it is McCain vs. Obamamama. Darn it!
Chuck Todd is a hack. He was telling the MSNBCer’s not to panic over those polls after the Republican convention, also saying he didn’t believe it and to wait for their own polls.
That doesn’t sound like a non partisan political director...
TN is the mostest for McCain...
LOL, nah, it is Oklahoma.
Try here on RCP. Note that most of these are LV polls, but you can get a sense from the trends that Bush led most of the way from early September 2004.
It’s axiomatic: sitting presidents always get the blame for a bad economy.
Past victories don’t guarantee current victories. The biggest mistake conservatives make is enjoying seeing the Democrats turn to their hard left making them think this will make them less competitive. Two major problems with that.
1) Given the pendulum action that takes place each party will win at some point. I would rather the Democrats win with an American leading them than an American hating left winger.
2) I would like to be able to consider the Dems when the Republicans are lousy. To be constantly stuck voting for bad Republicans because the Dem alternative is extreme is not a good thing.
And about half of the inhabitants of the US are secular. They embrace populist positions.
Believe the polls, Zer0 is tied or ahead, period. And with fraud, he can surely win!
Many other countries such as France now BAN polling data to be publish within 30-60 days of the election to put a stop the Obama Push polling we see from ABC, CNN, NBC, The Compost,etc...
You can twist stats all into any product.
Look at that. Gallup has Bush up 54 to 40 on 9/15, and then tied on 10/31
What credibility they have. Gallup tried to prop Kerry up too
Debating is not Obabble’s strong suit. He can talk the talk but can’t walk the walk.............
but neither bush or mccain lays the blame where it belongs.
i thought mccain was going to “NAME NAMES” and “MAKE THEM FAMOUS”.
come on johnny mac name the democratic bastards. call them on it.
this is a very critical period when many voters are just coming out and forming their first impressions.
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