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McCain Camp: ABC/WP Poll An 'Outlier'
Real Clear Politics ^ | September 24, 2008 | KYLE TRYGSTAD

Posted on 09/24/2008 9:15:52 AM PDT by BigEdLB

Bill McInturff, John McCain's lead pollster, called today's ABC News/Washington Post national poll (showing Barack Obama +9) an "unusual outlier" and chalked it up to a Democratic party identification margin that was higher than normal.

"I don't think these results are at all indicative of what's happening in the campaign," McInturff told reporters on a morning conference call. "Where I think this race is: It's a margin of error race nationally and it's a margin of error race in most of the most competitive states."

Although he praised the ABC News and Washington Post polling teams, McInturff said this poll and an L.A. Times/Bloomberg poll released in June showing Obama leading by 12 points are the only two occasions he's asked the McCain campaign to allow him to address the press. He noted that Democrats held a 16-point party ID advantage over Republicans in this poll, while, he said, most other pollsters are finding the margin between 4 and 9 points. "The L.A. Times poll was very unusual and this poll is very unusual," he said.

McInturff said the race is within the margin of error because of recent national polling and polls released in 12 of the most competitive states, which he identified as: CO, FL, MI, MN, MO, NV, NH, NC, OH, PA, VA, WI. Using (ahem) RealClearPolitics, McInturff said he looked at poll results from the weeks of Sept. 6-12, Sept. 13-19 and Sept. 20-23, and found the race nationally and in those states to be within a point in all three weeks.

(Excerpt) Read more at time-blog.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2008polls; electionpresident; mccainpalin; poll
As Rush just said, this is a fraud :

the Internals are dubious.

Who best would handle International affairs?
Date._________Obama___McCain
9/22/08__RV_____48_____46
9/7/08___RV_____39_____51


F R A U D!

1 posted on 09/24/2008 9:15:52 AM PDT by BigEdLB
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To: BigEdLB

BTTT!


2 posted on 09/24/2008 9:16:56 AM PDT by NoGrayZone (Michelle Obama...Queen of the Damned (courtesy of CougarGA7))
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To: BigEdLB

This is a poll for the people. Obama’s people.


3 posted on 09/24/2008 9:16:59 AM PDT by Maelstorm (This country was not founded with the battle cry "Give me liberty or give me a government check!")
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To: Maelstorm

Power to the people...power punch to the people.


4 posted on 09/24/2008 9:18:22 AM PDT by snarkytart
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To: BigEdLB

ABC's Ms. Ashwari-Jennings: "We, at ABC, do not trust McCain or any patriotic American."


5 posted on 09/24/2008 9:19:38 AM PDT by Diogenesis (Igitur qui desiderat pacem, praeparet bellum)
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To: BigEdLB

Any poll which doesn’t post the weighting is a fraud. Any poll at this stage which uses ‘adults’ or ‘registered voters’ is also an attempt at public opinion fraud.

I don’t buy that Obama has 52% of anything in this country other than suspicion by the populus.

Where are all the state polls showing Obama is winning back those blue states like MI, WI, MN, PA?

I’m beyond deeply suspicious. Even though talking about Wall Street and economic ‘bailouts’ is going to be a boon for liberals and Bush-hating voters I don’t believe Obama suddenly broke 50% for the first time ever.


6 posted on 09/24/2008 9:19:55 AM PDT by bpjam (If an enemy chooses you as his executioner, don't be rude by refusing.)
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To: BigEdLB

No duh it’s a fraud, it has Obama winning on the issue of Iraq. YEA SURE.


7 posted on 09/24/2008 9:20:24 AM PDT by snarkytart
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To: BigEdLB

What you said - it’s not an outlier, it’s an outliar, a fraud.


8 posted on 09/24/2008 9:20:41 AM PDT by MrB (0bama supporters: What's the attraction? The Marxism or the Infanticide?)
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To: BigEdLB

RCP shouldn’t even add this poll into its averages, if you ask me. The left’s bogus machines can’t do anything that doesn’t spell fraud.


9 posted on 09/24/2008 9:21:21 AM PDT by Proudcongal (POW/WOW '08)
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To: BigEdLB
 901. Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as:

            Democrat     Republican     Independent     Other     No op.
9/22/08 RV     38            28              29           5         1
Full Poll Data
10 posted on 09/24/2008 9:22:43 AM PDT by avacado
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To: BigEdLB
Although he praised the ABC News and Washington Post polling teams

"Just because they rigged their poll to cast our opponent in a more favorable light, we still love them and think they're great."

Ugg.

11 posted on 09/24/2008 9:23:57 AM PDT by dead (I've got my eye out for Mullah Omar.)
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To: BigEdLB
These Outliers as they are called--I just plain ole' call them hooey!!--are all over this campaign. I pretty much stick with Rasmussen. He has a track record of being at least on the level and accurate. THe MSM along with the liberal terrorists with their hacking, filthy lies on You Tube, and most likely serious voter fraud come election day will stop at nothing to get Obama (which I have now come to believe is either a Mancherian candidate or just plain evil given the unquestioned support by people as well as the unethical lengths all go to to support this guy and make sure he gets in office) elected.

Along with all our footwork we need to pray through out the day for God to stop the evil schemes and candidate in this election.

12 posted on 09/24/2008 9:24:59 AM PDT by GOP Poet
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To: BigEdLB

A few things about this poll, which makes it total BS:

1. Party ID was 38D, 28R, 34I. When the Is were asked to express a preference, the breakdown was D54, R38. In no Presidential election since 1988 has the spread between Ds and Rs ever been more than 4 points. In the 2006 election, which was great for the Democrats, the spread was only 3 points.

2. The poll assumed that 88 percent of registered voters were also likely voters. In 2004, the highest turnout election ever, the turnout rate was 62%. It is well known that the likely voter poll is more Republican than the registered voter poll (in 2004, the difference was 4 percent in Gallup’s poll).

3. Not even the Obama campaign is buying this poll. See http://media.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZTFjMmMyMTdkZGQyMjFmNTE5NGE3MjRlNTJkNDk0YTE=.

In short, this is the kind of poll you get when you oversample Democrats and assume that more of them will actually vote than what has ever happened in any election ever before. It is an Obama wet dream, not a real poll.


13 posted on 09/24/2008 9:29:18 AM PDT by kesg
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To: MrB
New stuff...
LOL - Mason Dixon Poll - Virginia
McCain 47 Obama 44...
Look out for this :
Michigan
McCain 46 Obama 43...
Market Resource Group of Lansing (Registered Voters)
See RCP Michigan page...Though this could be an outlier...
14 posted on 09/24/2008 9:30:37 AM PDT by BigEdLB (Let's get serious - there is only one choice - McCain/Palin 2008)
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To: GOP Poet

0bama is evil. Just look at where his money came from. He was in bed with every slum lord in Chicago, not just Rezko.


15 posted on 09/24/2008 9:30:39 AM PDT by YdontUleaveLibs (Reason is out to lunch. How may I help you?)
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To: bpjam

The poll also intentionally interviewed about 160 extra black people to get its numbers, which is obvious manipulation.


16 posted on 09/24/2008 9:31:09 AM PDT by Thane_Banquo (You can put lipstick on a donkey, but it's still just a jackass.)
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To: GOP Poet

I’ll tell you something, as a Coloradoan, if McCain doesn’t let Palin start talking to the media at every opportunity he is going to lose CO. She is the one who is going to turn CO red and you don’t hear a peep out of her on TV or the radio (Rush anyone?). Big mistake!


17 posted on 09/24/2008 9:31:22 AM PDT by Emo4SC (Disclaimer: All thoughts expressed here are not my own, but merely what I've been told by Talk Radio)
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To: avacado
When they asked all the respondents (including the independents) to identify which party they "generally lean toward", the breakdown of NET LEANED was 54% Democratic, 38% Republican, 7% Independent, 2% Other. If anything, Obama slightly *underperformed* relative to this lopsided sample. See http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/postpoll_092308.html?sid=ST2008092303897&s_pos=list
18 posted on 09/24/2008 9:33:49 AM PDT by tellw
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To: BigEdLB

And ABC is pushing this phony poll BIG TIME

ABC = ALL BARACK CHANNEL


19 posted on 09/24/2008 9:34:00 AM PDT by F15Eagle (1 John 5:4-5, 4:15, John 11:25, 14:6, 1 Tim 2:5, John 3:17-18, John 20:31, 1 John 5:13, John 6:69)
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To: F15Eagle
Since the Obama folks think this is nonsense :
Dan Pfeiffer of the Obama campaign emailed to say: "When the Post poll had us down 2 a few weeks ago, Plouffe went on the record and said the poll was wrong. We also think that this poll is wrong." He went on to say that although they aren't conducting national polls for the campaign, they believe an 11-point swing in two weeks is unrealistic in such a divided electorate.

We ought to convince RCP to remove it from thier average...

With this poll : Obama +3.2, without it : Obama +2.3, a difference of 0.9
20 posted on 09/24/2008 9:37:55 AM PDT by BigEdLB (Let's get serious - there is only one choice - McCain/Palin 2008)
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To: BigEdLB

Can someone answer this question?

I personally think that it’s best to show these polls close on all fronts because it keeps us from being complacent.

Many of us here are following the live rallys, looking at state polls etc feel that McCain is sitting in a better position as all he has to do, is keep HIS STATES PLUS ONE MORE OF OBAMA’S TO WIN.

Soooo. Why is it, e.g., that RCP puts NC into the “toss up” column just because there were just 2 polls showing it a tie when for the entire year, McCain has been up in the state? Another poll comes out today, and it’s back for McCain.

On the other hand, NH and PA are moving towards McCain but it doesn’t appear in the McCain toss up column yet because it’s under the margin of error ON SOME OF THE POLLS.

Also, IN, virtually all polls have McCain ahead for months now and OH, FL seem to lean towards McCAin for weeks now. But they’re all toss ups.

And VA 25,000 in NOrfolk rally last week, but no sign in the polls?

What is going on here?

I guess my point is, it seems like the moment one of our states shows a slight dip, they toss it into the toss up or Obama side, where as they don’t do this for McCain.

McCain is pressing in several states. MI, PA, NH. And is getting huge turnouts in WI, CO. Yet we’re seeing McCain slipping with Obama staying steady.

I think it’s clearly a drop due to the economy and the negative campaigning from the Obama side.

The first debate is on foreign policy? I think we all know what they will say. Obama will say the surge is working. Will they ask him on his meetings with the Iraqi FM?


21 posted on 09/24/2008 9:39:18 AM PDT by nikos1121 (Obama-Biden Where's the beef?)
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To: nikos1121
VA 25,000 in NOrfolk rally last week, but no sign in the polls?

Mason Dixon poll today - McCain +3
22 posted on 09/24/2008 9:41:25 AM PDT by BigEdLB (Let's get serious - there is only one choice - McCain/Palin 2008)
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To: avacado

Even the Indies are heavily weighted to the lefties, so it’s (fraud) worse than it appears


23 posted on 09/24/2008 9:46:28 AM PDT by NYC Republican (Infuriate the MSM- vote for Palin/McCain)
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To: BigEdLB
I'm much more concerned that Obambi gained 2 in Rasmussen last night than I am about the ABC poll.

Looks like our guy is currently behind by a couple of points. The MSM / RAT talking points that Obama has "the answer" on the economy is taking hold amongst a number of voters.

Some of us have been screaming for weeks that McCain needs to be bolder and more aggressive in promoting his economic agenda. If he continues to flounder, it could very well end up costing him the election.

24 posted on 09/24/2008 9:48:50 AM PDT by comebacknewt
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To: comebacknewt

Well Battleground and RAS are both Elite Pollsters and well respected, one has to be wrong.

BG Mac +2
RAS O +2

BG uses a DEM +3 weight

RAS uses DEMS +6


25 posted on 09/24/2008 9:51:49 AM PDT by Wilder Effect
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To: BigEdLB

Which has been ignored along with MAC + 2 in New Hampshire from RAS.

The Media did a good job today of conning voters into only discussing the ABC/Bogus poll.


26 posted on 09/24/2008 9:53:41 AM PDT by Wilder Effect
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To: BigEdLB

Of course it’s a fraud. I’ve impressed their camp actually got out early and called them on it though.

I’m not going to trash a poll just cause the ticket is down that day in it, but 42%? Ridiculous.


27 posted on 09/24/2008 9:58:16 AM PDT by Soul Seeker
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To: BigEdLB

Really, it’s outright liars polling company


28 posted on 09/24/2008 10:09:45 AM PDT by Carley (she's all out of caribou.............)
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To: BigEdLB

Fox just released a poll showing Obama up 6 pts. Is that fraudulent too?


29 posted on 09/24/2008 10:12:49 AM PDT by linn37 (Hail Me, Obama or be cast into the fiery pits of eternal damnation!")
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To: BigEdLB
New stuff... LOL - Mason Dixon Poll - Virginia McCain 47 Obama 44... Look out for this : Michigan McCain 46 Obama 43...

Ha Ha! I wish I could post this over at DUmmyland. But every time I go over there, I have to disinfect my computer.
30 posted on 09/24/2008 10:27:30 AM PDT by Signalman
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To: BigEdLB

They should issue a statement on these polls similar to the smack-down of the NYT, stating that these are just hit-jobs by propaganda outfits working for the election of their favored candidate. They can then mention that their own polling shows that these polls are wrong, that the assumptions of these polls are so off as to be intentionally fraudulent, and that there are a few honest polls out there that will be proven correct on election day, but ABC is not one of them.


31 posted on 09/24/2008 10:42:40 AM PDT by Defiant (Pacifism and Socialism: Death and Taxes, just lots more of it.)
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