Posted on 09/24/2008 11:16:42 PM PDT by Luke21
State by state, Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill). is showing signs of breaking open a presidential race that looked deadlocked through much of September.
A new wave of polls released Wednesday showed decisive leads for Obama in the critical states of Colorado, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
That follows noticeable progress in polls in Virginia, which had looked safe for Sen. John McCain, and Florida, which had looked promising for McCain.
This is the first time that one of the candidates has dominated state polls in the most closely contested battlegrounds.
Republican strategist Karl Rove had predicted this tectonic shift, writing at Rove.com earlier this week: "[I]f the movement toward Obama in national polls continue to percolate down to the states, we could see an Obama lead later this week."
(Excerpt) Read more at politico.com ...
Cue the R.E.M. song. /sarc
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
I’ve been gone all day. Haven’t been here at all, and then find all these nasty polls at once.
This shocks me that a crumb like this could be anywhere near winning.
This hasn't happened, as a matter of fact Obama is having problems in the blue states and NH just moved into the McCain column. McCain has broken 50 in three of the swing states according to Rasmussen. I guess it depends on which polls you believe are more accurate. I would rather be in McCains position than Obama's right now.
Larry Sinclair hitting the MSM next month.
Frankly, the polls are so schizophrenic right now, I think the only reasonable thing to conclude is that the race is tight and there are lots of undecided voters out there.
The economic troubles are a gift to 0bama, because it has added a variable into a contest that otherwise, I think he would have lost very badly (and indeed, could still lose badly).
My advice is to ignore these electoral college maps. Polling by state is much less than a science than a national poll. State-by-state polling tends to be all over the place, i.e. unreliable.
Moreover, and more important, unless the final margin of victory is within approxmately 1.5%, it is nearly certain mathematically that the candidate who leads nationally will also lead in enough states to get to 270 EVs.
Instead, reply primarily on actual data from past elections, especially 2000 and 2004. For example, Bush defeated Kerry in Nevada by 2.59%, which was slighty better than his national margin of 2.4%. If McCain is ahead nationally, he is almost certainly ahead in Nevada as well. Or take Florida. In 2004, Bush defeated Kerry by 5 points, or nearly 2.5% above his national total. If McCain is tied or behind by less than 2 points, he is probably leading in Florida. Etc. These state-by-state spreads do change from election to election, but not by very much.
One other thing. These state-by-state polls tend to lag behind national trends. What Politico is reporting here is the natural result of Obama’s poll bump last week in the wake of the financial mess. There is some evidence that this poll bumb is now starting to dissipate. If the trend continues, expect the state-by-state polls to follow — about a week later.
Hope you are right. I’ve seen the polls used as disinformation back as far as 1980.
Agreed, but President Bush has been a great boon to the Dems.
We are having to divide the conservative movement from the Republican party regulars again. It isn’t helping anything.
By the way, has anybody seen any polling on whether people favor this fricking bailout?
“Tectonic” shift? If that adjective isn’t blatant (and cheerleading) editorializing, nothing is.
>>>>Larry Sinclair hitting the MSM next month.
You mean the day AFTER the election, if at all. So far, there’s been no evidence that the MSM has ever heard the name, let alone reported on it.
“Larry Sinclair hitting the MSM next month.”
You really think so? I thought he’d end up like Jim MacDougal.
Heh.
Americans reluctant to fund bailout, poll finds.
Americans want bailout - poll.
Ain't life grand?
If you haven’t already seen this you might find it interesting. Have a good night I’m off to bed.
>>>>>This shocks me that a crumb like this could be anywhere near winning.
I can’t believe that people take him seriously.
We are constantly hearing about Palin’s lack of experience (which is sexist anyway because when has this ever been raised before in relation to a VP pick) but Biden’s the one doesn’t seem to be able to hold a consistent thought. Just think about him taking over. America would be a laughing stock.
I’m looking at the polls too. I see NH for McCain. McCain ahead in FL, VA and tied in PA.
What polls is this guy talking about?
Do you remember experience ever being mentioned when Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton ran for president?
These polls seem full of media obfuscation. They obviously love socialism and love the bailout.
I think it’s legit
And he’ll get about as much publicity as another Larry, Larry Nichols did back in the nineties.
Was nothing but leaping and cartwheeling by the press when Ferraro was named.
I would take that in a second. Hope you are right. I live in Arizona and as stupid as the voters here have become, McCain is a lock.
This is Politico! Not friendly toward conservatives.
Fox had a poll today that had Obama ahead by nine points on who is more trusted to handle the economy. That’s the crux of it, folks.
For some reason, the electorate has decided Obama, a spendthrift steal your money Democrat, is more equipped to handle this crisis - when his type got us into it in the first place. I gues we have to thank the MSM disinformation campaign for that.
I think Colorado is gone... McCain is down 5 points now according to real clear averages. And the numbers coming out of there look terrible for McCain.
We are going to have to pick off a blue state to win this thing, and New Hampshire wont be enough.
If the election stopped today, based on the polls, the score is 269-269. Someone pointed out that could result in an Obama-Palin administration. McCain certainly has got to hang on to what he’s got and try to wrest one of the following Colorado, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Michigan. He’s been hurt badly by the economic crisis. If things get back to normal, his chances go way up.
This weeks news, will not be next weeks news.
Presidential elections are weird animals, you never know what will be important. Reagan was trailing Carter for the longest time.
It is easy to dismiss polls I don’t like.
That said, I really think that only polls based on the turnout in 06 or 04 are very legitimate.
06 because it’s the latest national election year.
04 because it’s the latest national presidential election year.
I understand that most polls are inflating the number of democrats polled, and deflating the numbers of independents and republicans. I don’t know why, unless they really have reason to think that their new projected turnouts have a basis in reality.
Rasmussen has the most believable turnout ratios that I know of. Anyway with better info please post it.
I mean anyONE with better info please post it.
Every poll shows something different. I think it is the media trying to create a horse race.
Hard to believe we could be in a position to lose as bad as the current group of polls implies. It reminded me of election day 2004, and the exit polls the press was reporting.
Could be. Back in the days of their media monopoly. They never gave us a straight answer. These “all over the map, but we’re always losing” types of polls seem to be more of the same.
That is one big dip your graph shows for Old John.
McCain took a massive hit with this financial crisis.
Colorado is certainly not gone and McCain still has a high 50’s approval rating there, and he’s only down 3. As far as picking off blue states, Wisconsin and Washington are good targets. McCain is only down 2 in those states and 3 or 4 in Oregon.
Since McCain’s VP announcement, until today, he has not been quoted on the issues. It has been Palin 24/7.
Some say he’s been coasting on the Palin phenomenon, now fading. There is an article in The New Zealand Herald that highlights this point: Nicola Lamb : Romney may have been more on money. She says “Somewhere in Massachusetts, Mitt Romney might be having a quiet chuckle to himself”
Looks like Reublicans, any Republican are blamed for the economic crisis. People have lost their minds.
The results of Obama’s election would be tragic for the USA.
The only poll that matters is on Nov. 4
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