Posted on 09/28/2008 9:53:32 AM PDT by Chet 99
Zogby Poll: Obama Narrowly Won First Debate, But Race Remains Too Close to Call
Likely voters give the Democrat a slight nod on his debate performance and in his overall handling of the current financial crisis
Utica, New York – Likely voters nationwide who watched Friday’s debate in Mississippi between Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain gave Obama the win by the slightest of margins, a new Zogby Interactive survey shows.
The poll shows that 44% believed Obama won the debate, while 41% said McCain did. Another 16% said they watched the debate but were unsure who came out on top.
The Horserace
9-26/27
Obama/Biden
47.1%
McCain/Palin
45.9%
Other/Not sure
7.0% Data from this poll is available here
Women gave Obama the nod, while men said they felt McCain won the first face-off. But some partisans had doubts. Just 78% of Democrats felt Obama won the debate, and just 80% of Republicans felt McCain won. Independents, by a four-point margin, said Obama won the debate.
By a 47% to 34% margin, debate-watchers said they felt Obama was better prepared for the event than was McCain. Nearly two-thirds of respondents said that both candidates performed better than expected.
A Zogby Interactive survey before the debate showed that, by a 4-3 ratio, likely voters believed Obama would win this first presidential debate.
The online poll included 2,102 likely voters nationwide and carries a margin of error of +/- 2.2 percentage points.
The women I know wouldn’t trust him to walk their dog across the street
Obama got taken to the woodshed by McCain. I don’t need a frikin’ poll to tell me otherwise.
At this point in time a virtual tie is good news, the bailout deal that is not simply a giveaway should help as well.
A heck of alot is riding on this Thurday’s debate..smoke and prayers for Gov. Palin to exceed all expectations.
47 to 34 thought the black guy was BETTER prepared??? Damn and these idiots may cast a ballot. Our country is doomed.
“Another 16% said they watched the debate but were unsure who came out on top.”
Translation: McCain won.
ping
Bambi’s predominant racial makeup is white, but since he hates whites, he claims black even though he is secdarily Arab, and 5% black.
Obama was better prepared! Who are these people?
FOR SOMEONE FAR SMARTER THAN ME:
Why does Ras (excellent poll) show O+6, Gallup (decent poll) show O + 6 or 8, yet, Zogby (poor poll) show O +1 ,and Battleground (good poll ) show McC +2.
Where is the race if the election were held today?
Thanks
well we are conservatives and already agree with most of mccain’s positions
This is pure bulls$$t! Zogby is a hack that nobody (conservatives anyway) should listen to anytime for any reason—positive for McCain or negative.
Obama got a lickin’ last Friday night in all aspects of that debate except for the economy(the most important).
BO came off as arrogant, snobbish, bullyish, all knowing and fake. McCain showed true leadership by ignoring the “John”, “Jim” etc lack of respect shown him by BO with a “sticks and stones” approach. Most importantly, McCain came off as likeable. BO came across as the guy who always complains about his neighbors. Very unpopular.
McCains incredible knowledge of foreign leaders, affairs and issues was mind boggling. BO would’nt know a foreign leader if he came up and bit him on his skinny, anti-american, Muslim ASS!
Bump what you said.
The MSM is in the tank for Obambi and are unashamed to show it. The polls and MSM are full of it.
They are trying to tell us to not believe our lying ears and eyes - instead just listen to them.
Keep the GOP ticket as behind all the way to election day and they count on some “sheep” to vote for Obambi because he is ahead anyway. There are those out there who don’t want to back the perceived loser.
This close out, it's almost "good game." McCain would have to do something radical now to turn this around.
What is Rasmussen’s record? How is it excellent? I have never trusted that guy since his final projection in 2000 was Bush by 10.
It's more than that. Obama simply had no substance or any thing of value to put forth. Totally empty.
Wow, McCain may as well re-suspended his campaign then? Give me a break. Bush was down by a similar margin vs Gore in 2000. The numbers did not flip until October. Gerald Ford and Hubert Humphrey also came roaring back late, to just barely be denied - and they were much much further back.
I think the campaign suspension thing just really really hurt, especially the way the media played it. Once we get the bailout off the table, maybe things will even out again.
Zogby sends me polls every week...he didn’t send me this one....hmmmmm. I think it is skewed.
I thought McCain was great and hung in there tough until the end. I was very impressed with McCain. Obama just knows his “script” well
Not a Zogby fan, but interesting.
Look, lets hope Mondays poll numbers on a 3 day average starts going down...I suspect that Obama had a great day Sep 25...
But still this trend is not good, i believe the MSM effect has taken a toll on voters...
If obama gets in, watch for the MSM to keep him there for 8 years...
Can’t stop the fight...its depressing, but voters are swinging wildly back and forth....
The make or break moment will be Thursday with the Palin/Plugs debate. If she comes off clueless and over her head...it will be the final nail in this ridiculous campaign. McCain has a temper but he has yet to use it against Democrats and Obama. The only thing we will have going for us in October will be the greatest advertising campaign against the socialist commie in the history of elections.
McCain’s team had better come out roaring over the next 14 days...if they wait...it will be too late.
Ras did very well in “98, and laid a major egg in “00. Since then he has been right on. I don’t have the figures before me, but on his and in other posts here show he scored a direct hit in “04. Also, not that it matters, but someone said he’s a Rep.
Why are these polls so different?
“Uh, Ras has it a big Obama lead today; Gallup today has it 8 points”.
...uh, then stay home election day chicken little.
Yeah, I know he is a Republican. It is just since 2000 I have not paid any attention to him what so ever.
Even with Special Sauce he can’t get Obama up more than 1 point?
How much can the media truly persuade the majority of Americans if the majority of Americans think the mainstream media is totally biased against McCain.
I don't know. I could be wrong but I have a sense that there are going to be many surprises come election day.
Polls always reflect media coverage.
Americans say they don’t like negative ads, but they work.
Americans say they know media bias, but it matters not, public opinion always follows what the media says.
I think Zogby didn't like Bush very much.
The point is we don’t know who will win. Hanging on the latest poll by people who are in this business and have to keep you coming back for more is not going to tell us either. Who are there sample people, what city...Republicans in some areas are far more liberal than Democrats in others. Even if we hear a breakdown by party what does it mean? Polls can give ideas and it is good to be aware of them, but they aren’t the election.
I haven’t spoken to anyone who is wildly swinging back and forth. The idiots for Marxism still are, those for McCain still are and undecided I know still are leaning the same way they were. It is the polls that are someone’s business that are wildly swinging and it is working because everyone keeps coming back.
But if you can't handle reality, then find another source of entertainment. Reality says that as of this date, McCain would lose huge. He has over 30 days to recover, and he did it once before. But he might think about actually NAMING NAMES on the bailout and going after Obama, Johnson, and Raines. Commercials aren't going to work. He blew a monster opportunity in the debate, and the polls are reflecting that.
Ford was simply the most incompetent candidate we have fielded since WW II; Humphrey wasn't close---if you correctly put the Wallace votes in the Nixon camp, it was a blowout. And those people never would have voted for Humphrey.
The dynamics of the race have changed badly, and it's far more than the "suspension." McCain's numbers started to flag some time ago. Despite what Freepers think about his debate performance on "points," what the great unwashed were looking for (yes, those Lunz focus group people) was whether Obama seemed "presidential," and I think he accomplished that easily. What we interpret as petty and snarky, they interpreted as "confident." I bet if you break down any of the post-debate numbers, you'll find a lot of indies changed their view of Obama.
Now, I'm going to make a very unpopular prediction. I think Palin is going to have a tough time against Biden. I love her, she is the future of the party, but I have a feeling Joe will pull out bills that he sponsored 20 years ago that no amount of briefing books can cover. If she has a "Couric" moment in the debate, then you may well have seen the end of the campaign.
My fear is that Biden will pull out of his pocket some obscure bills he passed 20 years ago that she can't possibly be prepared to discuss or respond to.
But we all know, HERE IS THE PROBLEM WITH PALIN:
she could blow any and all of these questions out of the park if she could just answer for herself! But every answer has to be synchronized with McCain's view, which isn't conservatism. So she can't pull a Rush Limbaugh and just answer every question based on old-fashioned conservatism---because that might put her at odds with McCain.
Well, you seem to be overly pessimistic. A number of post debate polls have been saying DRAW or slight McCain win among the independents. (See the Rasmussen and SurveyUSA releases). Under your theory, all Obama had to do to win this election is not fall on his face in the debate. I don’t think he’s closed the deal by any means. Moreover, the ratings for the debate were dreadful, so I don’t think we’ve reached a “defining” moment by any means.
As for Palin - have you seen her Alaska debates? She was just fine. The McCain camp just needs to let her loose and be herself. Self-confident, but flubbing a few points here and there, will be far better than a tightly wound machine puking out talking points.
And I know some of the internals don't seem to support the overall numbers, but at some point you have to say all the polls are wrong, and I think we tried that in 06. Fool me once, . . . .
bmflr
Which debate did these people see? It’s obviously not the same one I saw.
Agree 100%.
Yes, the Wilder/Bradley effect.
There's a difference between whistling past the graveyard and ignoring "the polls" and cherry picking certain poll results to bolster your case for pessimism.
Your point is why I think Palin needs to be taken "off the leash". If she contradicts McCain's position, so what? She's already done that on ANWR, abortion, and maybe some others... better to go with a "Team of Mavericks" that don't agree on everything than have a wound up machine puking talking points that she doesn't even believe. It doesn't seem to hurt Obama when Biden contradicts him.
So Obama may have lucked out and as a result, he's the next POTUS.
Right. But my point was, I don’t care what the polls say. But we should be realistic.
I defy you to put together a winning McCain scenario as of today. Go ahead: tell me what optimism you see in the CO or VA polls. You can say, "Well, Obama isn't up much in PA or MI." And that's right. But I'd say, we have ALWAYS been told that those states were "winnable" in two previous elections and they were not---nor has McCain led in either one except for one single poll in MI, by a single point.
So whether it's averages or most recent, it flat-out doesn't look good.
And, no, my point isn't that Palin needs to be taken "off the leash." My point is that if she is "off leash," she will be pilloried for contradicting McCain, and if she is "on leash" her answers will be guarded, and likely confusing, because she won't be speaking from common sense or her heart. She was great for solidifying and energizing the base---but now we have a ticket where the ideological differences between the pres and veep are the greatest I think I've ever seen in my lifetime.
I wouldn’t go so far as to say they are setting her up to fail. I would say she stepped into a no-win situation in which if she gives the RIGHT answers, she will contradict the front runner, and if she gives his answers, she’ll have to think about them-—making her look unsure (which, I know, she isn’t). G. H. W. Bush had the same problems as Reagan’s running mate, only they really agreed on the biggest issue of all, the Cold War.
His only chance was to pull a Clinton and blame the WHOLE THING on Obama, which was out of character for him, but, alas, a loser not to do so.
McCain has dropped off the campaign trail for four days and announced so. He’s back at it tomorrow. Give it a few days - this race will tighten back up.
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