I defy you to put together a winning McCain scenario as of today. Go ahead: tell me what optimism you see in the CO or VA polls. You can say, "Well, Obama isn't up much in PA or MI." And that's right. But I'd say, we have ALWAYS been told that those states were "winnable" in two previous elections and they were not---nor has McCain led in either one except for one single poll in MI, by a single point.
So whether it's averages or most recent, it flat-out doesn't look good.
And, no, my point isn't that Palin needs to be taken "off the leash." My point is that if she is "off leash," she will be pilloried for contradicting McCain, and if she is "on leash" her answers will be guarded, and likely confusing, because she won't be speaking from common sense or her heart. She was great for solidifying and energizing the base---but now we have a ticket where the ideological differences between the pres and veep are the greatest I think I've ever seen in my lifetime.
CO and VA have consistently under polled Republican support the past few elections. In 2002, Wayne Allard consistently polled in the low 40%, and won comfortably. Polls show VA much closer in 2004 than it ended up being. States with a mix of one or two large urban areas mixed with huge rural populations are hard to poll.
Also, every election cycle produces polls showing New Jersey to be close, and some Republicans actually believe them. A sucker's bet. Same goes for any Dem counting on VA.