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BattleGround Poll M 48 O 46 (let the PollerCoaster for Monday begin!)
battleground polling ^ | Sept | 29| 08 | housedeep

Posted on 09/29/2008 6:22:16 AM PDT by housedeep

Battle Ground shows McCain steady at 48%!

(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
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1 posted on 09/29/2008 6:22:18 AM PDT by housedeep
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To: housedeep

That’s good news. For what it’s worth.


2 posted on 09/29/2008 6:23:10 AM PDT by pgkdan
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To: housedeep

So which of the polling orgs is cooking the numbers?


3 posted on 09/29/2008 6:23:34 AM PDT by The_Victor (If all I want is a warm feeling, I should just wet my pants.)
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To: housedeep

PollerCoaster. Very good.


4 posted on 09/29/2008 6:24:24 AM PDT by Lee'sGhost (Johnny Rico picked the wrong girl!)
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To: housedeep

Cannot be... I refuse to believe this poll. McCain has to be at least 10 points down maybe more according to every poll out there. WE are done, its the end of the world, I am going to stock up on food and guns and ammo.”sarc off”
Just wanted to get everyone’s feelings out there at the beg of the day which I have been seein the last few days :)


5 posted on 09/29/2008 6:24:24 AM PDT by bushsupporter30
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To: pgkdan

If you don’t know which way you’re going to vote by now, you’re much too stupid to vote and you should be forced to stay home.


6 posted on 09/29/2008 6:24:43 AM PDT by King Hawk
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To: housedeep

Story on Drudge says Obama camp thinks they will win in LANDSLIDE.


7 posted on 09/29/2008 6:24:58 AM PDT by JFC (Sarah Palin.. is just what America needs.)
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To: pgkdan

Battleground has McCain up 2%
Here is Battleground’s impressive record:
1992 ** // 1996 **

Projected - Actual // Projected - Actual

37% - Bush - 37.45% // 49%- Clinton - 49.23%
43% - Clinton - 43.01% // 40% - Dole - 40.72%
19% - Perot - 18.91% // 9% - Perot - 8.40%
1% - Other - .64% // 2% - Other - 1.65%

2000 *** // 2004

Projected - Actual // Projected - Actual

49% - Bush - 47.87% // 51.2% - Bush - 51.1%
47% - Gore - 48.38% // 47.8% - Kerry - 47.9%
3% - Nader - 2.73% // .5% - Nader - .34%
1% - Other - .58% // .5% - Other - .58%


8 posted on 09/29/2008 6:25:03 AM PDT by TitansAFC (In 2008, please vote GOP and show us that you love your country more than you hate John McCain)
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To: housedeep

The stability of this poll is remarkable compared to all of the others. It’s an outlier, however, as noted above, it’s has a solid history.


9 posted on 09/29/2008 6:28:06 AM PDT by Warlord
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To: housedeep

The stability of this poll is remarkable compared to all of the others. It’s an outlier, however, as noted above, it’s has a solid history.


10 posted on 09/29/2008 6:28:08 AM PDT by Warlord
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To: housedeep

The stability of this poll is remarkable compared to all of the others. It’s an outlier, however, as noted above, it’s has a solid history.


11 posted on 09/29/2008 6:28:08 AM PDT by Warlord
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To: The_Victor
Well, looking at this poll -- of all the tracking polls, Battleground is the *only one* that seems to drop Friday and Saturday polling as meaningless.

So if they're cooking it, I like their cooking better than Gallup's cooking and Rasmussen's cooking.

12 posted on 09/29/2008 6:28:19 AM PDT by Sooth2222 ("Suppose you were an idiot. And suppose you were a member of congress. But I repeat myself." M.Twain)
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To: TitansAFC
That's some pretty accurate numbers.
13 posted on 09/29/2008 6:28:39 AM PDT by CatOwner
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To: housedeep
I trust the Battleground Poll - not because it shows McCain winning, but because, as far as I can determine, it is the only poll that is using historical measures of actual turnout for determining it's Dem to GOP mix.

Here's a post I did based on a Pollster.com article that those riding the Pollercoaster should ready:

Party ID: The Case for Weights and Historical Margins (Current polls all oversampling Dems)

14 posted on 09/29/2008 6:30:29 AM PDT by TonyInOhio (This is no time to go wobbly.)
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To: JFC

Saw that and was going to post that.
Think overconfidence on their part is good for us. Kinda reminds me of 2004 when the exit polls were winning for Kerry and then Bush won.
Couple of things in their favor is the GOTV efforts but think they are missing the enthusiasm factor on our side especially with the Palin pick.


15 posted on 09/29/2008 6:30:32 AM PDT by bushsupporter30
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To: TitansAFC

Are these the final figures released right before the elections or from a similar time frame as the current race?


16 posted on 09/29/2008 6:31:22 AM PDT by Thickman (Term limits are the answer.)
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To: bushsupporter30

bttt


17 posted on 09/29/2008 6:31:54 AM PDT by ConservativeMan55 (Obama is the Democrats guy. They bought the ticket, now they must take the ride.)
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To: housedeep

This is NOT good. Battleground always polls high for McCain. Isn’t this the first one showing him behind? This thing is real. McCain is losing this fight.


18 posted on 09/29/2008 6:32:16 AM PDT by DRey
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To: King Hawk
I agree with you but if you asked my dad he'd probably say he's undecided. He's a lifelong democrat. A Korean War Vet and the Son of a decorated WWII vet. John McCain is the kind of guy he really admires but he was raised to believe that only the democrats care about the little guy. There is no way in hell my dad will vote for Obama but he can't bring himself to say he'd vote for a Republican either.

I was 22 when Reagan was elected the first tiume in 1980 and I was a BIG Reagan supporter. My dad and I had some real knock down drag out brawls over politics back then. I thought it was sad to watch him try and defend the colossal failure that the Jimmy Carter Presidency. By 1984 he was grudgingly adimiring of Ronald Reagan and never spoke against him...he never said so but I know he voted for Reagan in 1984.

19 posted on 09/29/2008 6:32:23 AM PDT by pgkdan
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To: Sooth2222

This is encouraging news though it does go against some of the other polls. I think one of our esteemed fellow FR members though said the internals show Battleground over samples older folks, and does not include enough younger voters. If this is the case it could skew the results in favor of McCain. Don’t know why they would want to do this though as they have a good reputation as a bipartisan, non biased outfit. I just hope they are right.


20 posted on 09/29/2008 6:32:24 AM PDT by TNCMAXQ
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To: housedeep

WooHoo, don’t need my Prozac today. /sarc


21 posted on 09/29/2008 6:32:31 AM PDT by Ravi
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To: housedeep

One thing is for certain.

Battleground, Rass, and Gallup are all reputable pollsters. Yet, right now, there is a 6-8 point spread between them.

Someone is way out on a limb here. On the face of it, it seems like Battleground. It is truly by itself. But I am praying that Battleground is the only one that is correct!


22 posted on 09/29/2008 6:33:05 AM PDT by ConservativeDude
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To: housedeep

Anyone who thinks this election is in the bag for Obama might be flying a little too close to the deck.

Remember way, way back last Fall, the election was going to be all about Iraq and the experts in the MSM had proclaimed Hillary and Giuliani as the candidates. Nobody was talking Fannnie & Freddie.

This pollercoaster ride is far from over. Please keep your hands and feet inside the vehicle at all times. ;-)


23 posted on 09/29/2008 6:33:35 AM PDT by 6SJ7 (Welcome PUMAs!)
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To: TitansAFC

It depends on where Obama’s additional support is coming from. The game for McCain is to win Florida, Ohio, Virginia and hold to all the other major Bush states. Nothing has changed there. He seems to have fallen behind in Colorado and that could be the ball game, but the local papers say it’s still close.

The economic meltdown clobbered McCain and I think he did the right thing suspending his campaign until it is sorted out, because it started to become the law of diminishing returns out there. The suspension had better end soon. Once he puts his mind back on the campaign, things will pick up, and really you are only talking about a dozen battleground states.


24 posted on 09/29/2008 6:33:35 AM PDT by idov
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To: housedeep

DAMMIT! This is still a CLOSE ELECTION!

We’ve got to close ranks and stay focused to END THIS IN VICTORY!

DAMMIT! Let’s stop the hand-wringing and ‘defeatist’ statements - RIGHT NOW!!!!

If you WANT ZERO to win this election - then DECLARE IT OVER FOR MCCAIN NOW!

If you WANT ZERO to lose this election - then STOP NEGATIVITY on MCCAIN/PALIN NOW!

Regardless of whatever happens in DC - WE HAVE GOT TO STOP ZERO and his band of thieves from winning NOV 4th!


25 posted on 09/29/2008 6:33:52 AM PDT by LibFreeUSA (..)
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To: DRey

M48% to o 46%. Mccain is ahead, not behind


26 posted on 09/29/2008 6:35:06 AM PDT by johncocktoasten (Obama/Biden '08, in and of itself, A Bridge To Nowhere)
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To: LibFreeUSA

Rass has it 50-45, McCain up 1 from Yesterday.


27 posted on 09/29/2008 6:35:17 AM PDT by Paul8148
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To: DRey

Try reading the poll again. McCain is ahead.


28 posted on 09/29/2008 6:35:30 AM PDT by B Knotts (Calvin Coolidge Republican)
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To: DRey
McCain is losing this fight

Perhaps, if he took the gloves off and STARTED to fight we might be in a better position.

29 posted on 09/29/2008 6:36:13 AM PDT by Puppage (You may disagree with what I have to say, but I shall defend to your death my right to say it)
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To: Sooth2222
Well, looking at this poll -- of all the tracking polls, Battleground is the *only one* that seems to drop Friday and Saturday polling as meaningless.

So if they're cooking it, I like their cooking better than Gallup's cooking and Rasmussen's cooking.

Being bipartisan, instead of "independent," I am much more willing to believe that Battleground is being intellectually honest more so than the others. But, I can't help but notice Battleground is the outlier.

30 posted on 09/29/2008 6:36:19 AM PDT by The_Victor (If all I want is a warm feeling, I should just wet my pants.)
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To: DRey

I think you got you numbers mixed up son McCain is winning according to my gut and this poll.

M stands for Mother

O stand for the oil in my hair.


31 posted on 09/29/2008 6:36:20 AM PDT by Porterville (Im no economist- getting a PHD in economics wasn't economical... it didn' make cents.)
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To: TonyInOhio

it is the only poll that is using historical measures of actual turnout for determining it’s Dem to GOP mix.”

Of course, we don’t know if past performance will be the same this time....the D’s sure are investing a lot in their “ground game” and they swear up and down they they have registered millions and will get them out....who knows?


32 posted on 09/29/2008 6:37:06 AM PDT by ConservativeDude
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To: Porterville
"I think you got you numbers mixed up son"

Maybe so. But call me "daughter," papa.
33 posted on 09/29/2008 6:37:57 AM PDT by DRey
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To: ConservativeDude
Battleground, Rass, and Gallup are all reputable pollsters. Yet, right now, there is a 6-8 point spread between them. Someone is way out on a limb here.

Actually, I think the Battleground Poll is the only one that is using the correct mix of Dem/GOP party affiliation. See my post:

Party ID: The Case for Weights and Historical Margins (Current polls all oversampling Dems)

34 posted on 09/29/2008 6:37:59 AM PDT by TonyInOhio (This is no time to go wobbly.)
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To: Paul8148

ill take that ras number today!
slow and steady tightening of that poll i think this week.

so glad the “economic meltdown” (lol) happened in sept instead of oct.


35 posted on 09/29/2008 6:38:22 AM PDT by housedeep
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To: The_Victor

JMO, and please don’t tell me my head is in the sand :), but I believe it has a lot to do with the majority using cell phones.

I say that, because in my immediate family, I’m the only one who uses a house phone. And if I didn’t have to have DSL for my work, I wouldn’t have any use for a house phone myself. We have had one polster call, and I was told they had all the women they needed and would like to speak to a man.

I truly believe this is the crux of the weird polls. It was a factor in past elections, but not as much as this one.


36 posted on 09/29/2008 6:38:51 AM PDT by Heart of Georgia (McCain/Palin '08)
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To: housedeep

PollerCoaster - LOL. Says it all.


37 posted on 09/29/2008 6:39:16 AM PDT by ProtectOurFreedom
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To: Thickman
Well, I imagine it's based on final numbers.

However, Battleground shows less wild swings; and I think its methodology (as has been proven) gets a much better snapshot/cross-section of where voters actually stand at a given point in time.

Gallup shows as much as 12-20 point swings, which I find a fantasy - and we all see the breakdowns in Party ID in the media-sponsored polls.

Rasmussen used to worry me, but he has so oversampled Democrats that he didn't even show a convention bounce for McCain - until he adjusted for more Republicans to show that bounce, having seen his folly - then went right back to oversampling Democrats.

Rasmussen has a 6% Dem edge in turnout - in 2004 it was 47/47. The most it has EVER swung in one election was 4 points. In 2006 - a Dem landslide year - the Party turnout margin was Dems +3%.

If we readjust most of the polls - even many of the “RV” and “Adults” polls - for a more reason able 1-4% Dem edge instead of the gap they use, you get a statistical tie with a sometimes very slight, statistically insignificant edge for Obama.

It is more a dead heat right now that some of the polls show. Battleground, history's most accurate pollster - period - shows the same.

38 posted on 09/29/2008 6:40:55 AM PDT by TitansAFC (In 2008, please vote GOP and show us that you love your country more than you hate John McCain)
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To: TonyInOhio

Yes, I have read that. They are correct using history as a guide.

The question is whether history is a guide here.


39 posted on 09/29/2008 6:40:55 AM PDT by ConservativeDude
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To: johncocktoasten
M48% to o 46%. Mccain is ahead, not behind

Plus this includes Sunday -- and Obama grabbing the "credit" for the Wall Street bailout.

I have some degree of skepticism about the computer tracking polls in this cycle. Is it easier to lie to a computer or to a live pollster? Not to blow off the Rasmussen results -- I'm just curious.

40 posted on 09/29/2008 6:41:09 AM PDT by Sooth2222 ("Suppose you were an idiot. And suppose you were a member of congress. But I repeat myself." M.Twain)
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To: housedeep
The way it's shaping up, McCain will win, but will lose the popular votes. Obama is surging in the big blue states but McCain has not sunk below margin of error in the Battleground States.

The Campaign scorecard has McCain winning the first 2 weeks and Obama the last 2. What McCain needs this week is for the markets to quiet down after the bailout bill passes, Gov. Palin to stand up to Plugs, and more aggessive counter-punches to Obama.

41 posted on 09/29/2008 6:41:13 AM PDT by AU72
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To: bushsupporter30
Cannot be... I refuse to believe this poll. McCain has to be at least 10 points down maybe more according to every poll out there. WE are done, its the end of the world, I am going to stock up on food and guns and ammo.”sarc off”

LOL - that's an excellent snapshot of what I've seen in abundance on here just this afternoon, let alone the last few days.

42 posted on 09/29/2008 6:42:12 AM PDT by Allegra ( Call me if you need me. Unless it's above my pay grade.)
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To: ConservativeDude
Of course, we don’t know if past performance will be the same this time....the D’s sure are investing a lot in their “ground game” and they swear up and down they they have registered millions and will get them out....who knows?

That true, but we read history for a reason - it often repeats itself. Over the past five Presidential elections, the greatest gap between Democrats and Republicans favored Democrats by 4 points, 39-35. That was in 1996, when Clinton actually won by 8 points, 48-41.

Perhaps there will be a tidal wave of new Democrats showing up to vote; in fact, that is the only assumption that would make the Gallup or Rassmussen numbers accurate. I doubt it, highly.

43 posted on 09/29/2008 6:45:58 AM PDT by TonyInOhio (This is no time to go wobbly.)
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To: TonyInOhio

Perhaps there will be a tidal wave of new Democrats showing up to vote; in fact, that is the only assumption that would make the Gallup or Rassmussen numbers accurate. “

Agreed.


44 posted on 09/29/2008 6:47:15 AM PDT by ConservativeDude
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To: JFC

The story I read last week was, “Obama living in dreamland; thinks he will win in a landslide.”

Just because you THINK it is true doesn’t make it true. But they don’t mind putting it out there to make US afraid.


45 posted on 09/29/2008 6:49:23 AM PDT by bboop (Stealth Tutor)
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To: JFC

The story I read last week was, “Obama living in dreamland; thinks he will win in a landslide.”

Just because he THINKS it is true doesn’t make it true. But they don’t mind putting it out there to make US afraid.


46 posted on 09/29/2008 6:49:52 AM PDT by bboop (Stealth Tutor)
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To: pgkdan

You should do what I’ve been doing. I tell Democrats I know that they can vote for McCain, it’s OK, he’s a Democrat. In this election, the Presidential candidates are all switched around, and there is no Republican running. The Republican is a Democrat, and the Democrat is a Marxist.


47 posted on 09/29/2008 6:52:50 AM PDT by Mrs. P ("Wonder Woman wears Sarah Palin pajamas." - Blood of Tyrants)
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To: housedeep; All
Here is my opinion. If bozo and the boys really thought they were going to win in a landslide they would not be trying to intimidate news outlets and advertisers from running any ads about bozo that show the truth(of course bozo's camp says they are lies). If they really thought they were way ahead why are they pulling out of some states giving them up for a lost cause? If they really think they are so far ahead why are they trashing Palin non stop and faking wins for Biden on the debate?

I'll tell you why, because unlike the phony polls we get to see their internals have bozo losing and losing big. The guy has lost support from Christians, lost support from a large group of women voters, voters who were going to vote Democrat but won't now, lost a large percent of the Hispanic vote(due to the fact Hispanics and Blacks don't get along, truth, whether you want to believe it or not) and, of course, a large percent of the male vote and 90 percent of the military.

Now tell me again why Rasmussen and Gallup's polls are so accurate? They aren't. I don't trust any polls except for the one on Nov 4.

This year, more than ever, the news media is in the tank for communists(read bozo)and that includes polling companies, including Rasmussen. Believe what you want, but bozo is going down in Nov.

48 posted on 09/29/2008 6:56:21 AM PDT by calex59
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To: DRey

“This is NOT good. Battleground always polls high for McCain. Isn’t this the first one showing him behind? This thing is real. McCain is losing this fight.”

Back to DU, dummie.


49 posted on 09/29/2008 6:59:25 AM PDT by Minn. 4 Bush
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To: Minn. 4 Bush
"Back to DU, dummie."

Not quite. You, however, do seem to be the type intolerant of dissent. Back to DU for you? Or will you allow us to have a discussion here on this discussion board?
50 posted on 09/29/2008 7:03:45 AM PDT by DRey
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