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2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/29/2008
InTrade ^ | Monday, September 29, 2008 | Momaw Nadon

Posted on 09/29/2008 4:03:24 PM PDT by Momaw Nadon



TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2008; 2008election; election; electionpresident; elections; electoral; electoralvotes; intrade; mccain; mccainpalin; obama; obamabiden; presidential; projected; votes
Intrade.com is a futures market in which people bet on the outcomes of various things such as the results of elections.

According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2008 Presidential Election.

If the traders are correct, John McCain would receive 200 Electoral Votes and Barack Obama would receive 338 Electoral Votes.

If the weighted probabilities of John McCain winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then John McCain should get 235.80 Electoral Votes.

270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.

Opinions and commentary are welcome.

1 posted on 09/29/2008 4:03:24 PM PDT by Momaw Nadon
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Previous projections:

2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/22/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/15/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/8/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/1/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/25/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/18/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/11/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/4/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/7/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/30/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/23/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/16/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/9/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/2/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/26/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/19/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/12/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/5/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/7/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/31/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/24/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/17/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/10/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/3/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/25/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/18/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/11/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/4/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/7/2008

2 posted on 09/29/2008 4:03:55 PM PDT by Momaw Nadon ("...with the ultimate goal of ending tyranny in our world.")
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3 posted on 09/29/2008 4:04:21 PM PDT by Momaw Nadon ("...with the ultimate goal of ending tyranny in our world.")
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To: Aeronaut; amigatec; angkor; annyokie; beckysueb; billva; BlessedByLiberty; bluefish; ...


If you want on (or off) of the weekly InTrade Projected Presidential Electoral Vote ping list, please let me know via FREEPmail.


4 posted on 09/29/2008 4:05:43 PM PDT by Momaw Nadon ("...with the ultimate goal of ending tyranny in our world.")
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To: Momaw Nadon

Lord help us.


5 posted on 09/29/2008 4:05:56 PM PDT by arichtaxpayer (We will not tire, we will not falter, and we will not fail.)
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To: Momaw Nadon

I don’t care what Intrade or anyone else says. This map is complete b.s.


6 posted on 09/29/2008 4:07:24 PM PDT by pgkdan
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To: arichtaxpayer

I bought McCain at 42.2 and I still think it was a bargain. McCain is going to take this election with 52% + and he is going to take some states that nobody even thinks he can.


7 posted on 09/29/2008 4:07:46 PM PDT by Thickman (Term limits are the answer.)
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To: Momaw Nadon

Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and Colorado? Yeah, right.


8 posted on 09/29/2008 4:09:55 PM PDT by Harry Wurzbach (Rep. Thaddeus McCotter is my hero.)
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To: Thickman

I wish I had your optimism about this election.


9 posted on 09/29/2008 4:10:41 PM PDT by frankiep (Every socialist is a disguised dictator - Ludwig von Mises)
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To: Harry Wurzbach

McCain might, might lose CO, but he is going to take NH and one or more of PA, MI, WI and MI. He’ll also keep NV but lose NM. No way he loses NC.


10 posted on 09/29/2008 4:12:29 PM PDT by Thickman (Term limits are the answer.)
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To: frankiep

I am optimistic. I have never gambled on inTrade before, but the idiots betting based on hokey polls have created a “buying” opportunity. If McCain drops to about 40 or less, I’ll buy even more.


11 posted on 09/29/2008 4:14:22 PM PDT by Thickman (Term limits are the answer.)
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To: Momaw Nadon

NOTE: McCain is down to 37.3. BUY!!!!!!!!

My theory is that Soros has his hand in manipulating this thing. Take some of his money. Buy McCain now!


12 posted on 09/29/2008 4:21:23 PM PDT by Thickman (Term limits are the answer.)
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To: Thickman
If McCain drops to about 40 or less, I’ll buy even more.

Here's your chance.

McCain currently trading at 37.

I sincerely hope you make a ton of money.

13 posted on 09/29/2008 4:23:38 PM PDT by Momaw Nadon ("...with the ultimate goal of ending tyranny in our world.")
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To: Momaw Nadon

Obama will NOT win Florida. Amendment 2 took care of that. I think McCain is going to pull off Ohio and New Hampshire as well...the rest...could very well be true at this point.


14 posted on 09/29/2008 4:28:28 PM PDT by My Favorite Headache (Forget the 3AM phone call. Obama can not even answer the phone at 3PM.)
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To: Momaw Nadon

The same Intrade that had Giuliani winning the nomination until January of this year.


15 posted on 09/29/2008 4:37:59 PM PDT by garv (Conservatism in '08)
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To: Momaw Nadon

If people are going to vote for Obama and the soocialist government that he will usher in, then they will have earned that government. Unfortantely they are going to drag evrrybody else with them.

And they said it couldn’t happen in this country!


16 posted on 09/29/2008 4:47:55 PM PDT by seawolf101
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To: Momaw Nadon

Thanks for posting this thread again. As we’ve been discussing, with the new electoral map on Intrade as the first thing you see when you log in, things are much faster moving for the state-by-state contracts. Are we going to move to a daily Intrade thread? If so, where would one find the ping list? It’s not on your home page.

Note that I have an assignment for the next 4 days so I’m already out of contention for running the ping list.


17 posted on 09/29/2008 4:51:46 PM PDT by Kevmo (McCain's learning from Palin how to win a national election. Palin's learning from him how to lose 1)
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To: Kevmo; All
Are we going to move to a daily Intrade thread?

If anyone wants to start up a daily Intrade live discussion thread and start a ping list for it, that's fine with me.

I will only be posting the weekly Electoral Vote updates on Mondays.

18 posted on 09/29/2008 4:59:57 PM PDT by Momaw Nadon ("...with the ultimate goal of ending tyranny in our world.")
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To: Momaw Nadon

ping for reference


19 posted on 09/29/2008 5:15:09 PM PDT by Mustng959
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To: Momaw Nadon

InTrade is heavily manipulated by European participants. It’s a betting site. Pure and simple.


20 posted on 09/29/2008 5:19:01 PM PDT by RocketMan1
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To: Momaw Nadon

Are we seeing the defeat of McCain OR are we seeing Obamma’s campaign peaking too soon?


21 posted on 09/29/2008 5:41:51 PM PDT by NaughtiusMaximus (Drill here. Drill now. No bailout. Put the blame on the Dems.)
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To: All

Anyone know the validity of American Research? don’t think I heard of it before but I like its findings... I hope it is an impartial source instead of right-leaning so that it is a more accurate standard of what is going on out there

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/ev/

it has mccain 286 to Obama 252 and was updated today


22 posted on 09/29/2008 6:00:39 PM PDT by wrhssaxensemble
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To: Momaw Nadon

Oh well, according to this McScream is toast. Election over on September 29th. No reason to show up on Election Day. Time to pack the bags. Moving to Moscow shortly. If I have to live under communism, I might as well live under the pros and not the joes.


23 posted on 09/29/2008 6:04:36 PM PDT by RetiredArmy (JimRob, I hope you have a quick dump on the server because Obama is coming after all of us.)
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To: RetiredArmy

The Election is NOT over.

McCain was in the lead JUST TWO WEEKS AGO.


24 posted on 09/29/2008 6:10:33 PM PDT by Momaw Nadon ("...with the ultimate goal of ending tyranny in our world.")
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To: Momaw Nadon
McCain was in the lead JUST TWO WEEKS AGO.

??? huh??? Right, and last Saturday the Dallas Cowboys were 3-0. TODAY they are 3-1 after yesterday's spanking.

25 posted on 09/29/2008 6:18:17 PM PDT by RetiredArmy (JimRob, I hope you have a quick dump on the server because Obama is coming after all of us.)
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To: Momaw Nadon

How do we get the ping list?


26 posted on 09/29/2008 6:19:08 PM PDT by Kevmo (McCain's learning from Palin how to win a national election. Palin's learning from him how to lose 1)
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To: Momaw Nadon

I strongly believe FL, VA, NV, OH and likely CO will be in McCain’s column Nov 4. Even without CO, add 80 to McCain and we have victory. If he’s doing bad enough to lose VA and FL, might as well slap in a DVD, because it’ll be a long night.


27 posted on 09/29/2008 7:01:02 PM PDT by ScottinVA
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To: ScottinVA
he needs all that Bush had.....take away Colorado and Iowa, McCain still wins.....throw in a Penn or a Washington....its a landslide.....

all doable.....just need those Bush states....

28 posted on 09/29/2008 9:29:16 PM PDT by cherry
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To: Momaw Nadon

“A national political campaign is better than the best circus ever heard of, with a mass baptism and a couple of hangings thrown in.”
~ H. L. Mencken


29 posted on 09/29/2008 11:09:24 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (Barack Obama: In Error and arrogant -- he's errogant!)
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To: Momaw Nadon
Using the probabilities above, the results of 20,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The "GOP Electoral Votes" is the expected value (probability weighted average). The "Probability of 270" is the point on the cumulative probability distribution for 270 electoral votes or higher.

Week GOP
Electoral
Votes
Probability
of 270
7-Jan 241.05 20.18%
14-Jan 235.29 14.70%
21-Jan 234.76 14.66%
28-Jan 236.58 15.44%
4-Feb 236.26 15.41%
11-Feb 237.25 16.43%
18-Feb 230.61 12.69%
25-Feb 233.56 15.44%
3-Mar 234.54 16.27%
10-Mar 240.26 22.49%
17-Mar 244.58 24.60%
24-Mar 249.73 28.50%
31-Mar 252.18 30.87%
7-Apr 248.97 27.60%
14-Apr 249.24 27.62%
21-Apr 247.86 25.60%
28-Apr 251.65 29.06%
5-May 250.84 28.07%
12-May 252.31 29.25%
19-May 248.73 25.99%
26-May 250.15 27.10%
2-Jun 248.98 26.46%
9-Jun 247.87 26.81%
16-Jun 248.41 26.06%
23-Jun 233.92 15.76%
30-Jun 234.84 16.21%
14-Jul 237.43 19.14%
21-Jul 231.61 14.15%
28-Jul 233.21 15.18%
4-Aug 234.45 16.45%
11-Aug 242.62 21.56%
18-Aug 246.64 25.20%
25-Aug 248.30 25.59%
01-Sep 255.23 32.44%
08-Sep 254.33 30.70%
14-Sep 272.47 51.00%
22-Sep 260.79 38.30%
29-Sep 235.80 14.39%

See this post for my latest Rasmussen model results based on state polls.

-PJ

30 posted on 09/30/2008 5:06:07 PM PDT by Political Junkie Too (You can never overestimate the Democrats' ability to overplay their hand.)
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