Skip to comments.New polls showing Obama breaking away in key states
Posted on 10/01/2008 10:21:06 AM PDT by rwfromkansas
New polls show Obama breaking away in key states Posted: 12:55 PM ET New state polls show Obama with clear leads. New state polls show Obama with clear leads.
(CNN) New polls released Wednesday morning suggest the race for the White House could be breaking for Barack Obama in three key battleground states.
Just-released Quinnipiac University surveys show Obama with wide leads in Pennsylvania and Ohio, as well as Florida the showdown state in the 2000 presidential race where John McCain has had held an advantage for most of the summer.
Quinnipiac's new survey in Pennsylvania shows Obama with a stunning 14 point-lead over McCain, 54-39 percent. Averaging that survey with other recent Pennsylvania polls, the latest CNN poll of polls there shows a 10-point lead for Obama in the state that only voted for John Kerry by a 2-point margin in 2004. Several polls released earlier this month in Pennsylvania suggested Obama's lead there was in the mid single digits.
A new Quinnipiac Ohio poll also released Wednesday morning shows Obama leading McCain by 8 points there.
A new Quinnipiac Florida poll also shows big gains for Obama, with the Illinois senator now holding an 8 point lead, 51 to 43 percent. There is also not enough recent polling in Florida to conduct a poll of polls there, though a survey from ARG earlier this week showed Obama with a statistically insignificant 1-point lead.
(Excerpt) Read more at politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com ...
No way B Hussein is up 14 here in Pa. Philly maybe PA not so much.
That’s the problem, no sampling info given or even if it is registered or likely voters. Heck, it could be just an “adults” poll, and Dems will always lead there.
I am betting this has a massive Dem sampling considering the other polls don’t show such leads for Obama.
If you think they are the same, you are clueless. We may get some things that we don't like from McCain, but Obama is a communist. The difference could not be more stark!
I tend to agree (with all of you posters re the unreliable polls) but even Limbaugh just mentioned these poll problems, and that McCain NEEDS to get more aggressive from now until election day.
He needs to step up and “name names” re this current financial meltdown or will be “thrown on the ash heap along with Dole and Bush 41,” etc...
Just reporting what I heard....................
Good news from Gallup.
I will choose to believe that. Otherwise, all these polls will make you physically sick. I try to ignore them, but this one just shocked me a bit. Thanks for the input about Q’s bias.
thanks.....tried to search for it, but didn’t find it.
This is the real deal.
Obama Backers Worry His Race Will Hurt Him in `Middletown, USA’
Hans Nichols Wed Oct 1, 12:00 AM ET
Oct. 1 (Bloomberg) — Hurley Goodall knows what it’s like to be first and black.
He has white Democratic voters in Muncie, Indiana, to thank for breaking a barrier when he was elected to the General Assembly 30 years ago.
``I am different, they know me,’’ said Goodall, 81, who also was Muncie’s first black firefighter. ``I am just as black, but they know me personally.’’
What worries Goodall is whether those same white voters in this town in the heart of the Rust Belt will feel the same way about Barack Obama.
Race is a powerful subtext of this presidential election, and its impact is largely hidden, with few white voters willing to acknowledge openly that they won’t vote for Obama because he is black.
It is a phenomenon documented when Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley, who was black, lost the race for governor of California in 1982 after polls had projected him a winner, leading experts to conclude that white voters didn’t want to acknowledge their racial attitudes.
Whether that effect will be in play for Obama in states like Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan remains an important open question in the campaign.
A poll released Sept. 20 conducted for the Associated Press and Yahoo News found that Obama’s support would be as much as six percentage points higher if there were no racial prejudice among whites.
When he first ran for office, Goodall overcame similar sentiments, and found that white voters became more comfortable with him over time.
During the course of the campaign, Illinois Senator Obama, 47, found that he could win over white voters, particularly when he could campaign for weeks instead of days.
Indiana has been reliably Republican in presidential politics since 1964, when it voted Democratic in Lyndon Johnson’s landslide victory. Obama’s campaign said that it could win in Indiana and recent polls show a close race against John McCain.
To win, however, Obama will have to break through in a state with a history of racial division. Many analysts say that the troubled state of the economy under Republican President George W. Bush could trump racial animus and deliver votes to Obama.
Sandra Barrett, 69, said she will back Obama because ``I have lost over half my pension. I blame Bush and the current crowd.’’
Goodall isn’t so sure other whites will feel the same way. He estimates that ``more than half’’ of Muncie’s poor white Democrats will vote for McCain. ``If they do better than that, it will surprise me,’’ said Goodall, who went to work in the neighborhood foundry at age 16 during World War II. ``I know them all, but when it comes to race, I don’t trust them and they supported me every time I’ve ran.’’
Michael Carpenter, a 65-year-old tour-bus driver, might be one of those people. He says he’s leaning toward McCain, citing the Arizona senator’s Navy experience and Obama’s race. Blacks ``have an ax to grind, and they are going to grind it,’’ he said. ``If he gets elected, this country is in for some real troubles.’’
This town, with its once booming auto parts plants, had been the picture of America’s successful transformation from the farm to the factory. It became known as ``Middletown, USA,’’ after a husband-and-wife sociologist team arrived in the 1920s to study how Muncie’s residents coped with the transition from the agrarian to the industrial economy.
The study largely ignored Muncie’s black population, said Jim Connolly, director of Middletown Studies at Ball State University in Muncie, a stark omission, given the role race has played in the city’s politics.
``There’s no way race couldn’t be a factor because it’s been such a powerful force in this town for so long,’’ said Connolly.
Earlier this month, Dennis Tyler, Muncie’s current state representative, called Obama’s national operatives to raise alarms about registered white Democrats claiming to be undecided on the presidential race. ``Now, he may not want to tell you because he’s black, but you’ve got to figure that that’s part of it,’’ said Tyler.
Obama might benefit from the area’s financial distress as polls show that a majority of voters believe he would be better at handling the economy. He also is familiar to Hoosier voters; roughly 25 percent of the state receives Chicago television.
Muncie could use the help. The town is shedding jobs and residents, with the population down to 65,000 today from 80,000 in the early 1980s. Its last automotive parts factory, BorgWarner Inc., will be shuttered next April, taking with it almost 800 jobs.
More than a fourth of Muncie’s residents live below the poverty level. Half of the students at Muncie Central High — the school that lost to the Hickory Huskers in the basketball movie ``Hoosiers’’ — receive subsidized lunches.
In May’s Democratic primary, about 10 percent of whites in the state said that race was important to them, said Joe Losco, a Ball State political science professor.
``That doesn’t bode well,’’ for Obama’s chances to carry the state in November when that many people think race is an important factor, Losco said.
After canvassing white Democratic neighborhoods earlier this month, local Democrats grew concerned that race was playing a bigger role than they have previously expected.
``Who’s going to look at you and say, `I am just not going to vote for him because he’s a black man,’’’ said Tyler, who knocks on doors for a couple of hours every day, asking voters to fill out their absentee ballots. ``Nobody is going to tell you that.’’
Sue Errington, the county’s state senator, said she heard more racial arguments against Obama in the Democratic primary, when she was on the other side, stumping for Hillary Clinton, a New York senator.
Those same voters now ``raise the experience issue,’’ Errington said, ``but you know it’s something else.’’
``It’s harder to address the underlying issues when they won’t bring it up themselves,’’ she said.
“Typically, university polls are trash anyway.”
yeah, but those coeds with OBAMA T-shirts that ask the question are kinda cute. (/sarc)
Well, if we can get those 15% Socalists to vote for Nader or McKinney, that will take some pressure off ;)
It is hard to ignore all these polls. They may or may not be accurate, but can they all be wrong? What if it is even worse for McCain than these polls indicated. Poll margins can go either way.
I have felt all year that McCain would win this thing. Until the last 4-5 days.
McCain is unfairly getting the negative end of things from the electorate because of the financial crisis. In addition, McCain is not able to get his message out. 98% of the news cycles are about the financial crisis.
Unless there is a major game changer (or the 2008 polls are horribly wrong), Obama is going to be our next president.
This whole election is something to get concerned about.
McCain is handling the Messiah with kid gloves.
Email McCain. Tell him he has an obligation as our candidate to get off his duff and fight back.
To h*ll with bipartisian BS, to h*ll with PC, to h*ll with ‘conducting a respectful campaign’!
Respectful campaigning went out the window with Obama’s nasty, ‘lipstick on a pig’ and ‘You can wrap AN OLD FISH in a piece of paper called change. It’s still going to stink after eight years.’ Take off the gloves, McCain!
Hit the Marxist/Muslim hard with Ayers, Acorn, Violation of Logan Act, Campaigning for Odinga!!
THE CONSERVATIVE ACTIVIST’S
GIANT E-MAIL LINKS PAGE!
Is this sheer insanity or what? Letting a black Obama supporter and Obama book author have control of the one and only vice presidential debate??
And heres the e-mail address of Janet H. Brown, Executive Director of the Debates Commission: firstname.lastname@example.org
FLOOD HER OUT WITH PROTESTS. DEMAND IFILL BE REPLACED.
http://www.faithfreedom.org/obama.html, read The Making of a fuerher- the best explanation Ive found of the Obama- worship insanity. It’s a legitimate psychological disorder. Find out what.
Obama’s get out the vote team has had two of its minions at my door within the last month. I told them both they are “AT THE WRONG HOUSE!!!”
L.A. Times’ classified ad section has had ads in their Sunday papers for several months — paying from $1400 - $2200 per month for assistance doing God knows what. Correct me if I’m wrong, but I’m sure the Republicans never pay people in this way — in all my years I have never seen evidence that election-related work is anything but volunteer. We are at such a disadvantage.............
Yep, Rush just said McCain needs to assign blame and name name’s. I’ve said the same thing for weeks, but not all FReepers agree this is a good strategy, unfortunately.
ALL these polls tend to shift to more realistic numbers up to the day of the elections.
They do that so they can say “See? We were right” AFTER the election...
The number now are to try to become self-fulfilling prophecies, and to drive opinion.
Massive get out the vote by Obama? Where is he going to find the massive votes by WHITE and yes I said WHITE Democrats to push to the polls? Not going to happen. I will say it up front that there are a lot of white Dems when they get in the privacy of a polling booth will not vote for Obama because he is a LIBERAL black. If that is racist so be it but it is not any more racist then at least 85% of blacks that won’t for for a WHITE guy.
Some of you forget that blacks in Harlem and other black communities voted at 110% in the last election so we have already the black vote fraud.
What I am afraid of is the McCain campaign will figure this plan out in 2 weeks when it is too late. They have slow to reacting to things. They need to do it now. The need to start tying Obama to the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac fiasco.
Will McCain lead during this time? We will see...
They were terrible in 2004 so they’re probably terrible now.
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