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New polls showing Obama breaking away in key states
CNN ^ | CNN

Posted on 10/01/2008 10:21:06 AM PDT by rwfromkansas

New polls show Obama breaking away in key states Posted: 12:55 PM ET New state polls show Obama with clear leads. New state polls show Obama with clear leads.

(CNN) – New polls released Wednesday morning suggest the race for the White House could be breaking for Barack Obama in three key battleground states.

Just-released Quinnipiac University surveys show Obama with wide leads in Pennsylvania and Ohio, as well as Florida — the showdown state in the 2000 presidential race where John McCain has had held an advantage for most of the summer.

Quinnipiac's new survey in Pennsylvania shows Obama with a stunning 14 point-lead over McCain, 54-39 percent. Averaging that survey with other recent Pennsylvania polls, the latest CNN poll of polls there shows a 10-point lead for Obama in the state that only voted for John Kerry by a 2-point margin in 2004. Several polls released earlier this month in Pennsylvania suggested Obama's lead there was in the mid single digits.

A new Quinnipiac Ohio poll also released Wednesday morning shows Obama leading McCain by 8 points there.

A new Quinnipiac Florida poll also shows big gains for Obama, with the Illinois senator now holding an 8 point lead, 51 to 43 percent. There is also not enough recent polling in Florida to conduct a poll of polls there, though a survey from ARG earlier this week showed Obama with a statistically insignificant 1-point lead.

(Excerpt) Read more at politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: mccain; obama; polls
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Is this something to be concerned about? How accurate are the Q polls?

I normally would not be concerned about one poll with the others still showing a tie, but this shows a big Obama lead in three states including Florida.

Have any other recent polls shown a movement to O?

1 posted on 10/01/2008 10:21:06 AM PDT by rwfromkansas
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To: rwfromkansas

They’re about the least accurate poll there is, IIRC.


2 posted on 10/01/2008 10:22:13 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (Barack Obama: In Error and arrogant -- he's errogant!)
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To: rwfromkansas

This poll is by CNN, its worth less than NOTHING:-()


3 posted on 10/01/2008 10:23:19 AM PDT by geo40xyz (BE PREPARED: "We got more thanks from the Dallas Cowboy Cheerleaders" than from SENATOR OBAMA")
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To: rwfromkansas
Quinnipiac is trash. They have a built in Dem bias, and an even bigger Obama bias. Even leftists on other forums were flat out laughing at these numbers.

Typically, university polls are trash anyway. Qunnipiac is just that much worse.

4 posted on 10/01/2008 10:23:22 AM PDT by freedomwarrior998
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To: rwfromkansas

BS polls drive the “news”, with the hope that the tail wags the dog.

My guess is the samples were 60% Dem, 25% GOP and 15% undecided socialists.


5 posted on 10/01/2008 10:23:34 AM PDT by Harry Wurzbach (Rep. Thaddeus McCotter is my hero.)
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To: rwfromkansas

Made it a mandate to myself: Ignore the polls, they will either give false hope, or false discouragement.


6 posted on 10/01/2008 10:23:42 AM PDT by madison10
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To: rwfromkansas

About as accurate as CNN’s online poll: Who do you want to win the election? 87% Obama, 6% McCain, 5% Nader


7 posted on 10/01/2008 10:24:05 AM PDT by DRey
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

They think 0bama is going to win Florida? ROTFL.


8 posted on 10/01/2008 10:24:15 AM PDT by library user
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To: rwfromkansas

Obama would need to be leading by 10-12 points nationally for these polls to be taken seriously. He’s not.


9 posted on 10/01/2008 10:25:29 AM PDT by impeachedrapist (Bill Clinton, as Arkanas Attorney General did you make Juanita Broaddrick pay for her own rape kit??)
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To: rwfromkansas

Q polls are progaganda-
Used today to get the Republican base worried and scared and not want to fight.

I cant wait till Nov 5 and the shock on some of these MSM types’ faces.

Gallup has McCain down by only four today...an increase of +4 over the last three days.


10 posted on 10/01/2008 10:25:39 AM PDT by housedeep
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To: freedomwarrior998
The national race is most likely Obama +3 right now.

The State by State race is a bit more complex. Florida and Ohio are actually looking good for McCain. His problems are Virginia and Colorado, both of which he will absolutely need if he can't take Pennsylvania.

11 posted on 10/01/2008 10:25:45 AM PDT by freedomwarrior998
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To: Harry Wurzbach
15% undecided socialists....

lol

12 posted on 10/01/2008 10:26:23 AM PDT by wolf24 ("It's always easy to rally the stupid.")
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To: library user

I can’t help but wonder if all these bad polls are right
and it’s the massive get out the vote machine Obama’s team
claims to have. Maybe all these new voters are showing up in the polling??


13 posted on 10/01/2008 10:26:28 AM PDT by RED SOUTH
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To: library user

I can’t help but wonder if all these bad polls are right
and it’s the massive get out the vote machine Obama’s team
claims to have. Maybe all these new voters are showing up in the polling??


14 posted on 10/01/2008 10:26:30 AM PDT by RED SOUTH
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To: rwfromkansas

These may or may not be accurate and I’m not going to let polls guide my thinking in any event.

What does guide my thinking is what I see the candidates doing and I see Obama winning the argument, that the financial crisis is the result of Bush, McCain and “deregulation”, despite that being the exact opposite of the truth.

And I see McCain doing.... ABSOLUTELY NOTHING!

You can’t win an election like this with your thumb up your own patoot.


15 posted on 10/01/2008 10:26:38 AM PDT by samtheman
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To: rwfromkansas

Qunnipiac is heavily weighted to the Left, and always has been. Any poll associated with CNN must be taken with a gallon of Liberal Salt.


16 posted on 10/01/2008 10:27:03 AM PDT by antonico
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To: rwfromkansas
Already posted.

These Q polls are a joke.

17 posted on 10/01/2008 10:27:20 AM PDT by JohnnyZ (This gun for hire)
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To: rwfromkansas

These are they wish polls.


18 posted on 10/01/2008 10:27:29 AM PDT by boomop1
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To: rwfromkansas

I really don’t see how Obama wins Ohio. There is outright racism amongst blue collar democrats in the south, strong republicanism in the rural areas and declining population in the urban centers where he should do well.


19 posted on 10/01/2008 10:27:30 AM PDT by wastedpotential (Proud to be in McCain country in the Buckeye State)
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To: rwfromkansas
So what, oboma or macain there is no real difference between them. Vote for whoever, the outcome will be the same, America has been lost to socialisim.
20 posted on 10/01/2008 10:28:07 AM PDT by JoSixChip
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No way B Hussein is up 14 here in Pa. Philly maybe PA not so much.


21 posted on 10/01/2008 10:28:13 AM PDT by Hones
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To: Harry Wurzbach; All

That’s the problem, no sampling info given or even if it is registered or likely voters. Heck, it could be just an “adults” poll, and Dems will always lead there.

I am betting this has a massive Dem sampling considering the other polls don’t show such leads for Obama.


22 posted on 10/01/2008 10:30:19 AM PDT by rwfromkansas ("Carve your name on hearts, not marble." - C.H. Spurgeon)
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To: JoSixChip
“So what, oboma or macain there is no real difference between them. Vote for whoever, the outcome will be the same, America has been lost to socialisim.”

If you think they are the same, you are clueless. We may get some things that we don't like from McCain, but Obama is a communist. The difference could not be more stark!

23 posted on 10/01/2008 10:30:29 AM PDT by HwyChile
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To: library user

I tend to agree (with all of you posters re the unreliable polls) but even Limbaugh just mentioned these poll problems, and that McCain NEEDS to get more aggressive from now until election day.

He needs to step up and “name names” re this current financial meltdown or will be “thrown on the ash heap along with Dole and Bush 41,” etc...

Just reporting what I heard....................


24 posted on 10/01/2008 10:30:29 AM PDT by CaliforniaCon
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To: All
Does anyone believe McCain is 15 behind in Pennsylvania?
Does Quinnipiac provide marijuana as a fringe benefit?
25 posted on 10/01/2008 10:31:27 AM PDT by BigEdLB (Let's get serious - there is only one choice - McCain/Palin 2008)
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To: housedeep; All

Good news from Gallup.

I will choose to believe that. Otherwise, all these polls will make you physically sick. I try to ignore them, but this one just shocked me a bit. Thanks for the input about Q’s bias.


26 posted on 10/01/2008 10:32:06 AM PDT by rwfromkansas ("Carve your name on hearts, not marble." - C.H. Spurgeon)
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To: JohnnyZ

thanks.....tried to search for it, but didn’t find it.


27 posted on 10/01/2008 10:32:31 AM PDT by rwfromkansas ("Carve your name on hearts, not marble." - C.H. Spurgeon)
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To: rwfromkansas; All

This is the real deal.

Obama Backers Worry His Race Will Hurt Him in `Middletown, USA’

Hans Nichols Wed Oct 1, 12:00 AM ET

Oct. 1 (Bloomberg) — Hurley Goodall knows what it’s like to be first and black.
ADVERTISEMENT

He has white Democratic voters in Muncie, Indiana, to thank for breaking a barrier when he was elected to the General Assembly 30 years ago.

``I am different, they know me,’’ said Goodall, 81, who also was Muncie’s first black firefighter. ``I am just as black, but they know me personally.’’

What worries Goodall is whether those same white voters in this town in the heart of the Rust Belt will feel the same way about Barack Obama.

Race is a powerful subtext of this presidential election, and its impact is largely hidden, with few white voters willing to acknowledge openly that they won’t vote for Obama because he is black.

It is a phenomenon documented when Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley, who was black, lost the race for governor of California in 1982 after polls had projected him a winner, leading experts to conclude that white voters didn’t want to acknowledge their racial attitudes.

Whether that effect will be in play for Obama in states like Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan remains an important open question in the campaign.

A poll released Sept. 20 conducted for the Associated Press and Yahoo News found that Obama’s support would be as much as six percentage points higher if there were no racial prejudice among whites.

Comfort Level

When he first ran for office, Goodall overcame similar sentiments, and found that white voters became more comfortable with him over time.

During the course of the campaign, Illinois Senator Obama, 47, found that he could win over white voters, particularly when he could campaign for weeks instead of days.

Indiana has been reliably Republican in presidential politics since 1964, when it voted Democratic in Lyndon Johnson’s landslide victory. Obama’s campaign said that it could win in Indiana and recent polls show a close race against John McCain.

To win, however, Obama will have to break through in a state with a history of racial division. Many analysts say that the troubled state of the economy under Republican President George W. Bush could trump racial animus and deliver votes to Obama.

Sandra Barrett, 69, said she will back Obama because ``I have lost over half my pension. I blame Bush and the current crowd.’’

McCain Supporters

Goodall isn’t so sure other whites will feel the same way. He estimates that ``more than half’’ of Muncie’s poor white Democrats will vote for McCain. ``If they do better than that, it will surprise me,’’ said Goodall, who went to work in the neighborhood foundry at age 16 during World War II. ``I know them all, but when it comes to race, I don’t trust them and they supported me every time I’ve ran.’’

Michael Carpenter, a 65-year-old tour-bus driver, might be one of those people. He says he’s leaning toward McCain, citing the Arizona senator’s Navy experience and Obama’s race. Blacks ``have an ax to grind, and they are going to grind it,’’ he said. ``If he gets elected, this country is in for some real troubles.’’

This town, with its once booming auto parts plants, had been the picture of America’s successful transformation from the farm to the factory. It became known as ``Middletown, USA,’’ after a husband-and-wife sociologist team arrived in the 1920s to study how Muncie’s residents coped with the transition from the agrarian to the industrial economy.

Blacks Ignored

The study largely ignored Muncie’s black population, said Jim Connolly, director of Middletown Studies at Ball State University in Muncie, a stark omission, given the role race has played in the city’s politics.

``There’s no way race couldn’t be a factor because it’s been such a powerful force in this town for so long,’’ said Connolly.

Earlier this month, Dennis Tyler, Muncie’s current state representative, called Obama’s national operatives to raise alarms about registered white Democrats claiming to be undecided on the presidential race. ``Now, he may not want to tell you because he’s black, but you’ve got to figure that that’s part of it,’’ said Tyler.

Obama might benefit from the area’s financial distress as polls show that a majority of voters believe he would be better at handling the economy. He also is familiar to Hoosier voters; roughly 25 percent of the state receives Chicago television.

Lost Jobs

Muncie could use the help. The town is shedding jobs and residents, with the population down to 65,000 today from 80,000 in the early 1980s. Its last automotive parts factory, BorgWarner Inc., will be shuttered next April, taking with it almost 800 jobs.

More than a fourth of Muncie’s residents live below the poverty level. Half of the students at Muncie Central High — the school that lost to the Hickory Huskers in the basketball movie ``Hoosiers’’ — receive subsidized lunches.

In May’s Democratic primary, about 10 percent of whites in the state said that race was important to them, said Joe Losco, a Ball State political science professor.

``That doesn’t bode well,’’ for Obama’s chances to carry the state in November when that many people think race is an important factor, Losco said.

Democrats Concerned

After canvassing white Democratic neighborhoods earlier this month, local Democrats grew concerned that race was playing a bigger role than they have previously expected.

``Who’s going to look at you and say, `I am just not going to vote for him because he’s a black man,’’’ said Tyler, who knocks on doors for a couple of hours every day, asking voters to fill out their absentee ballots. ``Nobody is going to tell you that.’’

Sue Errington, the county’s state senator, said she heard more racial arguments against Obama in the Democratic primary, when she was on the other side, stumping for Hillary Clinton, a New York senator.

Those same voters now ``raise the experience issue,’’ Errington said, ``but you know it’s something else.’’

``It’s harder to address the underlying issues when they won’t bring it up themselves,’’ she said.


28 posted on 10/01/2008 10:32:40 AM PDT by redstateconfidential ("Go to the mattresses")
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To: freedomwarrior998

“Typically, university polls are trash anyway.”

yeah, but those coeds with OBAMA T-shirts that ask the question are kinda cute. (/sarc)


29 posted on 10/01/2008 10:33:22 AM PDT by UCANSEE2 (The Last Boy Scout)
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To: wolf24

Well, if we can get those 15% Socalists to vote for Nader or McKinney, that will take some pressure off ;)


30 posted on 10/01/2008 10:33:42 AM PDT by BigEdLB (Let's get serious - there is only one choice - McCain/Palin 2008)
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To: Hones

It is hard to ignore all these polls. They may or may not be accurate, but can they all be wrong? What if it is even worse for McCain than these polls indicated. Poll margins can go either way.

I have felt all year that McCain would win this thing. Until the last 4-5 days.

McCain is unfairly getting the negative end of things from the electorate because of the financial crisis. In addition, McCain is not able to get his message out. 98% of the news cycles are about the financial crisis.

Unless there is a major game changer (or the 2008 polls are horribly wrong), Obama is going to be our next president.


31 posted on 10/01/2008 10:33:42 AM PDT by gswilder
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To: rwfromkansas

This whole election is something to get concerned about.
McCain is handling the Messiah with kid gloves.

Email McCain. Tell him he has an obligation as our candidate to get off his duff and fight back.
To h*ll with bipartisian BS, to h*ll with PC, to h*ll with ‘conducting a respectful campaign’!
Respectful campaigning went out the window with Obama’s nasty, ‘lipstick on a pig’ and ‘You can wrap AN OLD FISH in a piece of paper called change. It’s still going to stink after eight years.’ Take off the gloves, McCain!
Hit the Marxist/Muslim hard with Ayers, Acorn, Violation of Logan Act, Campaigning for Odinga!!
MCCAIN WEBSITE
http://www.johnmccain.com/Contact/

THE CONSERVATIVE ACTIVIST’S
GIANT E-MAIL LINKS PAGE!
http://www.conservativeusa.org/megalink.htm
_______________________________________
Is this sheer insanity or what? Letting a black Obama supporter and Obama book author have control of the one and only vice presidential debate??
And here’s the e-mail address of Janet H. Brown, Executive Director of the Debates Commission: jb@debates.org
FLOOD HER OUT WITH PROTESTS. DEMAND IFILL BE REPLACED.
_________________________________________
Go here
http://www.faithfreedom.org/obama.html, read ‘The Making of a fuerher’- the best explanation I’ve found of the Obama- worship insanity. It’s a legitimate psychological disorder. Find out what.
_________________________________________________________-


32 posted on 10/01/2008 10:34:22 AM PDT by patriot08
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To: RED SOUTH

Obama’s get out the vote team has had two of its minions at my door within the last month. I told them both they are “AT THE WRONG HOUSE!!!”

L.A. Times’ classified ad section has had ads in their Sunday papers for several months — paying from $1400 - $2200 per month for assistance doing God knows what. Correct me if I’m wrong, but I’m sure the Republicans never pay people in this way — in all my years I have never seen evidence that election-related work is anything but volunteer. We are at such a disadvantage.............


33 posted on 10/01/2008 10:35:32 AM PDT by CaliforniaCon
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To: HwyChile
On the really big domestic issues of the day, there is no daylight. Emigration and nationalization of the private sector. You think a few dollars seperation in tax policy is the difference between communism and and a free market?
34 posted on 10/01/2008 10:35:50 AM PDT by JoSixChip
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To: CaliforniaCon

Yep, Rush just said McCain needs to assign blame and name name’s. I’ve said the same thing for weeks, but not all FReepers agree this is a good strategy, unfortunately.


35 posted on 10/01/2008 10:36:32 AM PDT by library user
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To: gswilder
Eneey Meeny Chilly Beeny. Got any good stock tips ? Football picks ?
36 posted on 10/01/2008 10:37:51 AM PDT by fantom
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To: rwfromkansas

ALL these polls tend to shift to more realistic numbers up to the day of the elections.

They do that so they can say “See? We were right” AFTER the election...

The number now are to try to become self-fulfilling prophecies, and to drive opinion.


37 posted on 10/01/2008 10:37:54 AM PDT by Mr. K (Some days even my lucky rocketship underpants don't help)
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To: RED SOUTH

Massive get out the vote by Obama? Where is he going to find the massive votes by WHITE and yes I said WHITE Democrats to push to the polls? Not going to happen. I will say it up front that there are a lot of white Dems when they get in the privacy of a polling booth will not vote for Obama because he is a LIBERAL black. If that is racist so be it but it is not any more racist then at least 85% of blacks that won’t for for a WHITE guy.

Some of you forget that blacks in Harlem and other black communities voted at 110% in the last election so we have already the black vote fraud.


38 posted on 10/01/2008 10:38:20 AM PDT by PhiKapMom ( BOOMER SOONER -- VOTE FOR McCAIN/PALIN2008! LetsGetThisRight.com)
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To: library user

What I am afraid of is the McCain campaign will figure this plan out in 2 weeks when it is too late. They have slow to reacting to things. They need to do it now. The need to start tying Obama to the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac fiasco.

Will McCain lead during this time? We will see...


39 posted on 10/01/2008 10:40:52 AM PDT by truthandlife ("Some trust in chariots and some in horses, but we trust in the name of the LORD our God." (Ps 20:7))
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To: rwfromkansas

They were terrible in 2004 so they’re probably terrible now.


40 posted on 10/01/2008 10:41:16 AM PDT by Red Steel
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To: rwfromkansas

Are other key states allowing signup immediately vote too?
/sarc off


41 posted on 10/01/2008 10:43:52 AM PDT by NoLibZone (Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac - are not facing any kind of financial crisis,'' Barney Frank 9-10-03)
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To: rwfromkansas

This is such utter nonsense as to be laughable.

I am from PA and DROVES of dems I know are voting for McCain and would NEVER vote for Obambi

Simply look at the places Hillary pounded Obama and know that McCain will win by similar margins

There is ONLY ONE POLL THAT COUNTS - Nov 4


42 posted on 10/01/2008 10:44:22 AM PDT by kauaiboy (Obama is a marxist plant)
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To: rwfromkansas

See tagline.

If you want to win, go out and work for it. Handwringing over polls is counterproductive.


43 posted on 10/01/2008 10:46:04 AM PDT by Antoninus (Ignore the polls. They're meant to shape public opinion, not measure it.)
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To: geo40xyz; rwfromkansas

“This poll is by CNN, its worth less than NOTHING”

Well yeah, CNN is , but what about the poll?


44 posted on 10/01/2008 10:46:44 AM PDT by UCANSEE2 (The Last Boy Scout)
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To: rwfromkansas

You should be very concerned. McCain is slipping, and it isn’t pretty.

I don’t worship polls, but the trends of most of them are showing Hussein is gaining and/or pulling away.

McCain seems to be AWOL, and he needs to stand up and be strong.

The media will never help him, so he needs to go the attack...and not relent for the next 36 days or whatever it is.


45 posted on 10/01/2008 10:47:14 AM PDT by Recovering_Democrat (A vote for Hussein is insane!)
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To: rwfromkansas

Its time to embrace the horror known as socialism. McCain has blown it big time in the past two weeks. I am depressed.


46 posted on 10/01/2008 10:49:19 AM PDT by rintense (Palin 2012 for President!)
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To: madison10

...”Made it a mandate to myself: Ignore the polls, they will either give false hope, or false discouragement”...

I heard someone say recently that polls had become a political tool, much like ads and other influences. These polls may be designed to discourage McCain supporters and to so dishearten people that they will just skip voting. It is very important to go vote for your candidate even if the polls are predicting a landslide. It could all be made up to achieve a psychological effect on the population.


47 posted on 10/01/2008 10:50:39 AM PDT by jazzlite (esat)
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To: Recovering_Democrat
the trends of most of them are showing Hussein is gaining and/or pulling away.

That is so last weekend. Polls since have shown a McCain trend, except for the silly Quinnippiac polls.

48 posted on 10/01/2008 10:53:37 AM PDT by Lucius Cornelius Sulla (White Trash for Sarah!)
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To: rwfromkansas

Hilarious! Easily 10 pts off in favor of O. In any case, Quinnipiac has no credibility whatsoever in polling, worst outfit out there. They had Kerry similarly winning these states if I recall.


49 posted on 10/01/2008 10:53:44 AM PDT by Citizen of the Savage Nation
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To: rwfromkansas

“no sampling info given “

Q polling knows what the demographic makeup of this sample is. Pollsters always ask for race, sex, age and other info.
Given that info all polls are valuable, without it no poll is.

Yet Q has deliberately suppressed that info.

Only reason I can think of for Q to hide the info so these polls are not deconstructed is to take pressure off Biden in this week’s debate... Just a wild guess.


50 posted on 10/01/2008 10:55:35 AM PDT by mrsmith
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