Presidential Race Deadlocked in Colorado Prior to Debate(McCain 43% Obama 44%)

CIRULI ASSOCIATES POLL (pdf) ^ | October 01, 2008 | Floyd Ciruli

[Red Steel]

Udall has 7‐Point Lead in U.S. Senate Race

In the latest Ciruli Associates statewide voter poll, conducted just prior to the September 26 presidential debate, the race in Colorado was deadlocked at 44 percent for Senator Barack Obama and 43 percent for Senator John McCain. Presidential Election

Senate Election Mark Udall has a seven-point lead in the U.S. Senate race over Bob Schaffer, 45 percent to 38 percent. Senate Election Ciruli Associates, N501, 2008 Question: Let me ask you about the U.S. Senate race here in Colorado. If you had to vote today for U.S. Senator, would you vote for Mark Udall, the Democrat, or Bob Schaffer, the Republican? [Reverse order of names] Recent polls have shown a Udall lead of 2 to 8 percent.

	Total in Sample	McCain/Palin	Obama/Biden	DifferenceMcCainObama
Total		44%	43%
Region
Metro	56%		41%	50%	-9
North Front Range		11	49	35	+14
South Front Range	15	52	32	+20
	Eastern Plains	3	47	20	+27
Western Slope	14		39	49	-10
Gun owner
	Yes	44%	57%	34%	+23
No	52	32	53	-21
Abortion
Pro life	38%	77%	15%	+62
Pro choice	52	20	65	-45
Veteran
Yes	25%	47%	34%	+13
No	72	42	47	-5
Labor union
Yes	17%	39%	46%	-7
	No	81	45	44	+1
Party
Republican		40%	81%	10%	+71
Unaffiliated	21	33	42	-9
	Democrat	28	10	82	-72
Gender
Male	46%	43%	45%	-2
Female	54	44	44	0
White male	39	45	42	+3
White female	47	48	40	+8
Education
High schoolor less	20%	46%	36%	+10
Post grad	24	39	53	-14

[Red Steel]

Interesting internal data. Some of it seems to conflict. Have a look. In the Udall(D) Schaffer(R) Senate race 17% are undecided.

[Red Steel]

Sorry for the formatting...

[USFRIENDINVICTORIA]

[paudio]

Did I read it wrong? Who got 44% and 43%, actually?

[Wilder Effect]

Who are these Clowns? A Boulder High School

[Chet 99]

Some polls “push” undecideds to make a choice, while others do not.

[Perdogg]

weird internals

[Red Steel]

Obama has the 44%, it’s transposed with McCain data cell.

[kesg]

If I read this correctly, it looks like there are too many Republicans in this poll. Worthless.

[LS]

You read it wrong. I can’t see that it says how many Republicans at all. But if you think white males are split evenly with McCain and Obama, then there is land I’d like to sell you in a swamp.

[Red Steel]

Republicans and Independents in CO outnumber Dems. You’ll also notice that the pollster polled more Dems by 7% over Independents, probably to even things out?

[kesg]

I read it as a 40R, 28D, 33I distribution, which is way too Republican (leaving aside that the numbers add up to more than 100). But yeah. I am also skeptical that white males in Colorado are split evenly between Obama and McCain. Whoever said that these internals are inconsistent gets a “master of the obvious” award.

Speaking of some fun with poll internals, check out this gem regarding the recent AP poll purportedly showing a 12 point swing to The One from its previous poll about three weeks before:

http://newsbusters.org/blogs/tom-blumer/2008/10/02/cooking-ap-polls-radically-changes-party-mix-fabricate-obama-trend

[Red Steel]

The pollster is listed on RealClearPolitics.com other than that I don’t know anything about them. This what they say:

“For more analysis of Colorado politics, log onto www.ciruli.com. Ciruli Associates is an independent, non-partisan research firm providing polling, election analysis and political commentary to Colorado and
national media organizations since 1976.”

[WOSG]

Unfortunately, it looks to be a bit skewed Republican.
but the formatting is so bad it is hard to tell.

[Perdogg]

If you look at the 2004 results for Col

Male 44% ( 53% for Bush)
Female 56% (51% for Bush)

GOP 38 (93 for Bush)
DEM 29 ( 7 for Bush)
IND 33 (52 for Kerry; 48 Bush)

[Perdogg]

If you look at the 2004 results for Col

Male 44% ( 53% for Bush)
Female 56% (51% for Bush)

GOP 38 (93 for Bush)
DEM 29 ( 7 for Bush)
IND 33 (52 for Kerry; 48 Bush)

[mountainbunny]

If I read this correctly, it looks like there are too many Republicans in this poll. Worthless.

Sitting in Colorado as I write this, the poll seems just about right. Some areas, such as the Front Range, are very heavily Republican. I have heard El Paso County(^) described as one the most conservative counties in the nation. It has voted Republican during every presidential election since 1871.

[kesg]

Thanks for the information. I don’t have any information like this about Colorado or most other states other than the 2004 election totals. Is this exit poll data or something else? A 56/44 gender split seems a bit out of whack.

[Perdogg]

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/CO/P/00/

[kesg]

Thanks for posting that link. I’m an idiot. I had forgotten all about the CNN Election 2004 links.