Skip to comments.October 3, 2004: New poll puts Kerry ahead of Bush
Posted on 10/03/2008 8:27:44 PM PDT by Chet 99
New poll puts Kerry ahead of Bush
Updated: 2004-10-03 09:38
Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry, buoyed by a strong showing in his televised debate with George W. Bush, has recaptured a small lead in their White House race, a Newsweek poll showed.
The survey, the first released on the race since the debate Thursday, gave Kerry a 49-46 percent edge over Bush among registered voters in a two-way matchup, and a 47-45 percent margin in a contest also involving independent Ralph Nader.
The poll, conducted Thursday to Saturday among 1,013 registered voters, reversed the findings of the last Newsweek study three weeks ago that put Bush six points up in a three-way race at 49-43 percent.
Bush had been leading since the August 30-September 2 Republican national convention in New York that wiped out a modest Kerry advantage and turned the race the president's way.
The new turnaround in the Newsweek poll, with a margin of error of four points either way, came after the debate at the University of Miami on foreign policy and homeland security which the magazine said Kerry clearly won.
Its poll showed 61 percent of those who watched the showdown thought the Massachusetts senator came off better and 19 percent felt the Republican president had prevailed.
The Democrats have hailed the debate as a turning point in the campaign after weeks of Republican attacks on Kerry's command capacities, Vietnam war experiences and record as an alleged flip-flopper that had him on the ropes.
Overall, Bush held a 52-40 percent edge on voter confidence in his ability to deal with terrorism and a 49-44 percent advantage on Iraq. But Kerry appeared to make inroads on the leadership question in the debate.
Forty-seven percent of viewers thought Kerry came across as a strong leader; 44 percent said Bush did.
Karl Rove, political adviser to Bush, said he thinks the presidential contest will be close.
"I think the election is going to tighten just because of the nature of the contest," he said. "All along we believed that it was going to be a very close election."
Earlier Saturday, Bush claimed Kerry would put US national security in the hands of foreign leaders, and Kerry slammed huge White House tax cuts as a gift for the rich.
The rivals revved up the rhetoric which erupted in their televised head-to-head clash on Thursday night, ahead of a potentially decisive 12 days which will see two more presidential contests and a vice presidential debate.
The president refused to let Kerry move the argument on from questions of statesmanship to bread-and-butter economic issues, where he is considered more vulnerable.
He lambasted what Republicans are calling the "Kerry doctrine" after his challenger said Thursday that US action abroad should be put to a "global test" to prove to Americans and the world that it is legitimate.
"Senator Kerry's approach to foreign policy would give foreign governments veto power over our national security decisions.
"I'll continue to work every day with our friends and allies for the sake of freedom and peace," said Bush, who pioneered a preemptive US policy to meet global threats at a rally in Columbus, Ohio.
"But our national security decisions will be made in the Oval Office, not in foreign capitals," he said.
Kerry has repeatedly vowed not to give foreign states veto power over US military action -- indeed, it was one of the first things he said in Thursday's debate. His campaign staff says the Bush team took Kerry's remark out of context in a sign of desperation.
The veteran Massachusetts senator, hoping to move out of Bush's slipstream in opinion polls, linked what he said was Bush's stubborn failure to change course in Iraq to his style of economic policy.
"It's not just on Iraq. Over the past four years, he has made a series of serious misjudgments here at home, choices that have hurt middle-class families," Kerry told supporters at a school in Orlando, Florida.
"This is a man that can't see a problem, and we need new leadership to take this country in a different direction," said Kerry, styling himself as a champion of Americans struggling with health care premiums and college fees.
Bush and Kerry will have another debate in St. Louis, Missouri, on October 8, before a final clash in the southwestern state of Arizona on October 13. Their running mates will face off in a vice presidential clash on Tuesday.
Uh oh, I’m reeeeeeeeeeeeal concerned! The election is over, Bush is doomed, Kerry is a lock!
Hold onto your hats, America.
This one ain’t over, and neither was that one four years ago.
Did President Kerry issue a statement on the bailout today?
thanks for the reality check.
Thomas Edmund Dewey comes to mind. ;-)
This race really isn’t playing out much different and if McCain strengthens his message and delivery and takes Obama down in the next two debates he will win. One of the details about the 20% of undecideds is that they listen to talk radio regularly and we know it ain’t Air America. This game is stacked against Obama. McCain just needs to start running like he was up untill this mess and that is like Reagan. He also needs to use big government for a punching bag. Every bit of dust and stuffing he knocks out of it will be worth its weight in votes. I don’t know why he doesn’t understand this very simple thing. People trust the government less than probably any other time. He just needs to pick up that gun and start firing. People will love it.
And in late 2004 both VA and NC were supposedly up for grabs. Bush carried NC by 12 points and VA by 9 points.
Bush carried Colorado by 100K votes (52-47%).
Dick Morris is a complete ... Well, I prefer not to cut on people online, but the man changes his position more than Obama does.
People have been saying that on FR for weeks.
We’re doomed. Kerry has it in the bag.
You know, he’s that guy who says he was in that country...was it Indonesia?
Try to drag out the old 2004 threads :)
What was the electoral count on the same day, anyone know?
Correction: Time to drag out the old 2004 threads
Going into Cambodia plus peanut butter and GRAPE jelly sandwiches from his man-servant puts him over the top.
I remember when this happened. The first debate was a big loss. Bush owned Kerry for the first 30 minutes, then the wind went out of his sails. Bush had been leading, then lost the lead seemingly over night. I remember there was panic around here that hadn’t been seen. Bush was behind or even until election day, when he eventually won by 3 points.
Of course every election is different. It is up to McCain to turn this sh1tfest around. His next opportunity is the upcoming debate Tuesday. I’ say it’s time to take the gloves off. 0bama has thin skin, and a glass jaw. I believe if he gets hit hard enough without his teleprompter nearby he could be rattled, and thrown off his game.
A president 0bama with a democrat controlled congress would be ab unmitigated disaster for our country. We will be looking at unchecked socialism and an attack on everything we cherish.
This thing is almost over, and our side needs to start playing for keeps.
There was the kid that called in today from U/Mass or U/Wis and said that Campus Obama Fever has cooled considerably in the last month or two. From my meager young folk connections, I would have to concur.
But the polls still look good for Obama
He doesn't understand it because he, like Bush, actually thinks big government is a good benign influence in the nation's life. McCain has a sort of an excuse. He never studied history much. Bush was a history major and he has no excuse whatsoever.
This thing is almost over, and our side needs to start playing for keeps.
Great post, KoRn.
“Bush was behind or even until election day, when he eventually won by 3 points.”
He only won because U.S. Army troops, disguised as road signs and traffic cones, kidnapped thousands of african-americans to stop them from voting.
Some of their bodies were dumped in New Orleans during the Katrina clean-up. The rest are frozen in Cheney’s 100 square-foot freezer (located in his underground bunker), alongside the occupants of the planes that supposedly crashed on Spetember 11th and a bunch of regular citizens who more or less resemble Muslims.
One difference — McCain has *never* been up 6 points like Bush was!
LOL, I remember that!
Then McCain had better concede now, while he still has his dignity. Anybody can be dead wrong. Morris is always dead wrong. His consistency in that regard is mind blowing.
Are you sure Morris said that? I think it was Rove.
Yeah, I like Morris..but he can be wrong an awful lot, he used to be a polling guy, he no longer does them.
IMO, McCain and his BiPartisan stuff is flawed, we don’t won’t that, we want some butt kicked up in DC.
The problem is that many minorities feel as if Socialism (increased Socialism) is their way of getting what is theirs.
The Democrats never say die....even after the election is done and gone for 4 years.....a point we Pubbies need to take to heart.
Fight on...never give up the ship!!!
I wonder how many of the Lib trolls in here are coached and paid to do so?
Uhhhh....I’m not awake! Didn’t read date on post. My sentiments are still profound, if not timely - yet!
Dick Morris seems to be 1 week behind the times. This means that Obama is already starting to tank.
What did Morris say?