Because I would feel a lot more secure if McCain/Palin was 7 points ahead than 7 points behind, and didn’t need to rely on something that can’t be measured until after the polls close on election day. There may well be some Bradley but it’s probably not 7 points and I’m worried.
posted on 10/04/2008 1:01:26 PM PDT
("Suppose you were an idiot. And suppose you were a member of congress. But I repeat myself." M.Twain)
They are polling 41 percent Democrats 30 percent Republicans and 29 percent independents.
There is no way that 2008 will find that 41 percent of voters are Democrats. More like 36 35 29 (D,R, I).
The Bradley effect can be as much as 15 points as the defeat of Ken Blackwell in 2006 had demonstrated. He was behind by 10 points in the polls and lost by 25 points. Anyway the Bradley effect will be the most effective in states such as Ohio, Florida, Colorado, Virginia, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania. Obama is not where near a seven points lead in any of these states except Pennsylvania and I have an impossible time believing that he is ahead by over 7 points in Pennsylvania even in a bias media polls.
posted on 10/04/2008 1:13:45 PM PDT
(McCain should use the nuclear option against Obama: Jeremiah Wright)
I agree, we have to be stone cold realists and assume the polls are accurate. Not that I don’t like seeing stories like this!
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson