CBS Poll: Presidential Race Tightens (Obama 48%, McCain 45% LV)

CBS ^

[impeachedrapist]

The 2006 differential was 3%, no matter how you slice it. Your data, like much of your reasoning, is flawed. I bet you think Obama really is leading in NC by 6 and in VA by double digits, don't you? After all, there are recent polls to support it!!! :-D

2006, Dems +3

I'm done arguing with you. I don't believe you're a GOP voter, despite your oh-so-clever screen name. I'm quite certain you're simply here to dredge up anything negative you can find. Which is your privilege.

But if you truly are just a simple, worried conservative who wants his country to do the right thing, here's a thought. Instead of [ahem] "hoping" the GOP does well, why don't you help out and "change" your incessant attempts to tear them down?? That's certainly the approach I'd use. Then again, I do my best to look at things objectively.

[floridagopvoter]

Look, you make credible points, and I see your logic. It is just basically impossible for me to agree with you that this election is just like the last 2 elections in terms of turnout, how Independents are going to vote, how self-proclaimed party ID is at the moment. This is a toxic year for Republicans, and I am convinced that it is even more toxic than 2006 was. Some of it is buffered by Obambi’s candidacy, which has been a godsend, but I am still resigned to Nov. 4 being a very different day/night than you appear to believe. I strongly believe that not only will Obama win the popular vote, but will walk away with a rather convincing EV victory. It is just one of those years. I am hoping for something, anything, to change the trajectory, and perhaps a major overseas crisis can shake this up. But even with that, people would be way too cynical at this late stage.

You ay want to consider this recent finding, as it pertains to our discussion here:

Yesterday’s ABC/WSJ poll -

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/msnbc/sections/news/081006_NBC-WSJ_Full_Release.pdf

Wall Street Journal article:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122332442918808789.html

OCTOBER 7, 2008 Independent Voters Move Toward Obama

Independent voters are starting to swing behind Barack Obama and Joe Biden, who continue to benefit from economic turmoil and the public response to their debate performances, according to a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll.
....
Independent voters are among the most important voting blocs because many of them would consider voting for either candidate. In the Journal/NBC poll two weeks ago, independents favored Sen. McCain by 13 points. The new survey finds Sen. Obama leading by four points.

---

The game changer, I believe, was the horrific state of the economy. The party of the president gets blamed or gets credit for the state of the economy. I see polls as snapshots of the current status of the race, and, clearly, if voting day was tomorrow, Obama would win and McCain would lose. There is time left, but all of this posturing (not necessarily by you, but others) that all polls showing Obama ahead in states and nationally are complete garbage does not come across as genuine. I don’t tend to believe one poll over another, there is margin of error to consider, polling methodology, one-day samples which could be bad, so I go with the aggregate of all polls. That way you minimize the chance that one errant poll spoils the overall picture. People said “ignore the polls, they are all false” in 2006, and we got a WORSE showing than even the most pessimistic polls showed (not a one had the GOP actually losing the Senate, aside from Zogby, I believe.)

There are many reasons this year is not going to be a GOP year, not the least of which is simply historical. In modern history never has the party occupying the White House for 2 straight terms captured it again right after following an unpopular president. If that was not enough of a historical disadvantage we are dealing with a rotten economy, a general overall slight pushback, if not somewhat strengthening repudiation (hopefully temporary) of many conservative principles, a lukewarm Republican base for the top of the ticket. I am also not detecting many, if any, of the ballot initiatives that have typically served us well to drive many out on election day.

Perhaps the excitement is just building and Nov. 4 will turn out different than most everyone predicts (including most Republican pundits and analysts on the tube,) but I can’t see that quite yet, at least not as of now. The next 2 weeks are pivotal in that respect, obviously.

[floridagopvoter]

This is the SECOND time you have told me that you “are done” with me. I really don’t care, it is not a shocking moment for me. I did not engage you, instead you engaged me. I believe you lack objectivity here, but that is just my personal observation.

For the record, I believe McCain is going to take NC, but Obama will probably walk away with Virginia. The fact alone that McCain has to fight in and defend these two states (look at travel schedules) does not give you pause?

[kesg]

Just one quick comment about the Independent vote. Today Gallup released its weekly internals for the week of Sept. 28-Oct. 5. Among the voters that Gallup calls “pure Independents,” McCain maintained his 9 point lead (on a much larger sample than the WSJ/NBC poll). To put this in historical context, Kerry won this vote 49-48 in 2004 (a huge turnout election).

[floridagopvoter]

If you give credence to the Gallup poll numbers you have to mention that they have the race now as +9 for Obama. What that tells me in terms of our discussion is that many “pure independents” have moved on to become Democrats (perhaps for this election only.) In other words, the pool of “pure Independents” (rather than what is commpnly referred to as a “leaning” Independent (either Democrat or Republican) is a lot smaller than it used to be. Otherwise, if you give their findings credence, they would not arrive at their findings that Obama is ahead by 9%.

Anyway, we shall see. Obama outspending McCain 3 to 1 in TV advertising is in my opinion catastrophic for our chances (also downticket,) but maybe McCain has something up his sleeve.

[kesg]

Gallup has the race at plus nine for Obama,but -- because it doesn't weigh its polls by party ID -- this means strictly that of the REGISTERED voters (not likely voters) that Gallup contacted, more Obama voters than McCain were willing to talk to Gallup. It DOESN'T mean that Obama actually leads the race by nine points. To know that, you need to know the party ID of the polled respondents and then make a judgment about whether the sample is representative of likely voters. And that leads straight to the point where we seem to disagree.