Posted on 10/06/2008 3:51:28 PM PDT by Chet 99
LOL. Priceless!
That’s because Juan Williams knows that Obama’s popularity and support are media-created illusion.
I think he will. For the first time it felt good to be a Repubican-McCain/Palin have finally begun to attack.
A 9.6% gap. That has to be too high.
I’m loving CBS
I’m loving Zogby
And look ... a pig just few by my window.
If loving them is wrong ... I don’t want to be right.
Then I heard her speak and knew that McCain had just made his very first presidential decision when he picked her and she ACCEPTED!
The party is once again energized and this will be a landslide victory for the good America.
Just like 1980, when Reagan won.
the best poll for McCain in the last week or so.
His lead among white voters is at 14, in my turnout model it makes Obama lead by about 5%.
The last NBC/WSJ poll was also ok-ish, with Obama leading by 6 with leaners. If McCain can stabilize his deficit at 6 by mid-October, there may be some chance for a final push.
Of course, if the market meltdown continues (S&P down 8% today before recovering to -4%), the slide in the polls will continue as well.
Does anyone here remember a presidential election where the polls a month before indicated a Republican win?
Way over-sampled independents and Dems. The poll questions and breakdown are here, in pdf:
http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/pdf/Oct08a-ALL.pdf
(That first number in each line is actual, the second is “weighted”)
Total Respondents 957
Registered Voters 875 821
Republicans – Reg. Voters 248 233
Democrats – Reg. Voters 320 311
Independents – Reg. Voters 307 277
Effective Likely Voters 616
What are those questions that are withheld (”q36-37 FOR FUTURE RELEASE,” “q38-53 RELEASED SEPARATELY,”) I wonder? Can those questions act as a “push poll”?
What this means is that if McCain sneaks out an EC win in November, the streets are gonna light up with how the election was “stolen.”
Good idea! I just called them--got through right away. When I said I had a question about their report regarding what the governor said that was racially tinged, she put me through to the national desk. The nice African-American lady who answered said, "I won't even attempt to answer that," and that I could leave a message if I wanted. I said, "no problem, I understand you're not the one who wrote it," but that I'd like to leave a message. I left a message telling them that their report was non-sensical and that their was no racial tinge to anything Palin said, and that I was disappointed in the AP.
Rasmussen is assuming that 6% more Democrats than Republicans will vote. This is simply unrealistic. Democrats haven’t had more than a 4 points advantage in any Presidential election since 1980 (and how well did THAT work out for Jimmy Carter....but I digress). The last time that the Dems had as much as a 4 point advantage was in 2000, when Gore nevertheless won the popular vote by less than 0.5%. In 2004, an essentially equal number of Democrats and Republicans voted. Two years ago, in a horrible election for the GOP, the Dem advantage was only 3 points.
Gallup is different. Unlike most other polls, it makes no attempt to weight its polls by party affiliation. Their numbers reflect nothing more than that more Demcorats than Republicans have been willing to talk to a Gallup pollster. This tells you more about voter enthusiasm for their candidate than the actual state of the race. If you don’t believe me, the same thing happened in reverse in Gallup polls during 2000, causing Gallup consistently to overstate Bush’s lead over Gore.
The way to read a Gallup poll is to read its weekly internals, which it usually publishes and updates on Tuesday or Wednesday. I personally pay the closest intention to this link (noting the changes in each category — including undecided voters — from week to week): http://www.gallup.com/poll/108049/Candidate-Support-Political-Party-Ideology.aspx
Hope this helps.
I went to the local Repub party office today and volunteered to call Independent registered women to get out the McCain/Palin vote.
The co-worker said no, the president controls everything having to do with anything involving money. My son asked him what about spending bills that the congress passes and sends to the president and the president vetoes them and the congress overrides the veto? The co-worker said that there was no such thing as overriding a veto. He plans to vote for Obama.
I know that democrats hope and pray for ignorance and stupidity to win elections and if the residents of the state of New York are any indication, this election will be a landslide for Barack Obama. I have never seen such willful blindness in my life.
This is what we're up against. A reality where people living in the Middle Ages had more knowledge and wisdom than 21st century Americans who vote for democrats.
Yeah, but I screwed up one of the numbers: the actual GOP share was 28.4, not 28.3. Sorry about that.
Your wish came true.
Now, will you please stop flogging that bogus Gallup “registered voters” poll EVERY MORNING?
It's the usual CBS oversampling of Democrats by nearly 10 points. There are already several posts on the actual breakdown, so here is a link to the actual CBS writeup:
http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/pdf/Oct08a-ALL.pdf
Streets will probably light up either way. If Nobama wins, it will be like winning the NFL/NBA championship and if he loses, well you fill in the ________(blank)
Yep, Dems are oversampled by at least 6.5 points but probably even higher than that.
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