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Hotline/FD Tracking Poll: Obama 47%, McCain 41% (Obama +5 from yesterday)
Real Clear Politics ^ | 10/9/2008 | Real Clear Politics

Posted on 10/09/2008 7:23:35 AM PDT by tatown

Obama 47%, McCain 41%

(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: poll
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McCain went from down 1% to down 6% in one day. This is a huge one day move. Hopefully, yeserday which was the only day post debate is an outlier and doesn't set a new trend.
1 posted on 10/09/2008 7:23:35 AM PDT by tatown
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To: tatown

Yesterday’s poll may have been an outlier. It was not in line with the other tracking polls (kinda like Gallup, but on the other end of the scale).


2 posted on 10/09/2008 7:24:45 AM PDT by Mr. Know It All (Quicumque vult salvus esse, ante omnia opus est, ut teneat catholicam fidem)
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To: tatown

That doesnt make any since. Are they a 3 day average ?


3 posted on 10/09/2008 7:25:24 AM PDT by se_ohio_young_conservative (GO Sarah Palin !)
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To: tatown

Not good!


4 posted on 10/09/2008 7:25:58 AM PDT by GoCards
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To: tatown

WTH???? There aren’t enough antacids out there to get me through the next month. Jeez these polls are killing me.


5 posted on 10/09/2008 7:26:21 AM PDT by IMissPresidentReagan ("What is wrong with this country? Have we run completely out of bullets?" Tom Griswold of Bob & Tom)
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To: se_ohio_young_conservative

Something Smells


6 posted on 10/09/2008 7:26:32 AM PDT by BigEdLB (Let's get serious - there is only one choice - McCain/Palin 2008)
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To: se_ohio_young_conservative

The Early Line: Diageo/Hotline Tracking Poll

Obama/Biden: 47%
McCain/Palin: 41%
Undec 9%

—After a tightening earlier in the week, Obama has re-opened a 6-pt. lead over McCain. This was likely driven by the fact that Obama has expanded his lead among women voters. He now holds a 9 pt. advantage over McCain with women. He also has a 2 pt. lead over McCain among men.

—Among the 66% of voters who say the economy is their #1 issue, Obama has a 13-pt advantage. And he holds a 6-pt. lead - 44-38% - on the question of who’d do the best job handling the economy. In yesterday’s poll, the two were tied on this question.

—Palin’s approval ratings are also sliding and she has almost a 1-1 fav/unfav rating, with 46% rating her favorably and 43% rating her unfavorably.

Today’s Diageo/Hotline tracking poll, conducted 10/6-8 by FD, surveyed 852 LVs and has a margin of error of +/- 3.4%. Party ID Breakdown for the sample is 41%D, 36%R, 18%


7 posted on 10/09/2008 7:26:41 AM PDT by crosslink (Moderates should play in the middle of a busy street)
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To: tatown

No doubt the polls will be predicting McCain at 35% the week before the election!


8 posted on 10/09/2008 7:27:13 AM PDT by o2bfree
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To: tatown

Is this a moving average? To get + 5 in a day the numbers would have had to be quite dramatic...


9 posted on 10/09/2008 7:27:27 AM PDT by wiseprince
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To: se_ohio_young_conservative
Yes:

Today's Diageo/Hotline tracking poll, conducted 10/6-8 by FD, surveyed 852 LVs and has a margin of error of +/- 3.4%. Party ID Breakdown for the sample is 41%D, 36%R, 18%I.

PS - Party ID Breakdown for the sample is 41%D, 36%R, 18%I.

10 posted on 10/09/2008 7:27:35 AM PDT by The G Man (The NY Times did "great harm to the United States" - President George W. Bush 6/26/06)
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To: tatown

“He also has a 2 pt. lead over McCain among men”

That doesn’t seem possible to me. Anyone else?


11 posted on 10/09/2008 7:27:58 AM PDT by Longstreet63 (Che Guevara is a genocidal hero of the ignorant...)
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To: crosslink
Outlier.

That's a crapload of movement for one day.

12 posted on 10/09/2008 7:28:16 AM PDT by TonyInOhio (This is no time to go wobbly.)
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To: se_ohio_young_conservative

Yes, a 3-day poll.

To gain 5 points in one day, yesterday and the day that dropped off would have had to have a total of +15 for Obama. As 15/3 would be 5%-points.


13 posted on 10/09/2008 7:28:27 AM PDT by tatown
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To: GoCards

these polling threads bring out the trolls amongst us.

Are you people living and dying with every poll ?


14 posted on 10/09/2008 7:28:29 AM PDT by se_ohio_young_conservative (GO Sarah Palin !)
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To: crosslink

I am surprised that Palin’s numbers are down. She is still attracting huge crowds.


15 posted on 10/09/2008 7:28:39 AM PDT by maeng
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To: The G Man

Not to worry.


16 posted on 10/09/2008 7:28:54 AM PDT by scooby321 (Cai)
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To: crosslink

5% oversample of Dems. Interesting.


17 posted on 10/09/2008 7:28:56 AM PDT by rom (Cold on McCain '08. Enthusiastic about McCain-Palin '08!)
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To: tatown

Today’s Battleground and Rasmussen polls both show McCain gaining today. Zogby shows him down one (statical noise?) and then there’s this one. Obviously, McCain isn’t going up and down at the same time so somebody’s out to lunch here. The race is tight and McCain is just starting to hit Obama on the terrorist connection. I think that’ll really hurt Obama. And then there’s the communist/islamist Odinga connection. I hope McCain is watching that one closely.


18 posted on 10/09/2008 7:29:02 AM PDT by nailspitter
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To: tatown; kesg; Wilder Effect; LS; perfect_rovian_storm; Chet 99; impeachedrapist; CatOwner; ...

For God’s sake this is Chuck Todd/Charlie Cook’s poll. What’s wrong with you people?


19 posted on 10/09/2008 7:29:39 AM PDT by Perdogg ("That One" for President - of Kenya, Say no to Barack Odinga)
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To: tatown

Today’s Battleground and Rasmussen polls both show McCain gaining today. Zogby shows him down one (statical noise?) and then there’s this one. Obviously, McCain isn’t going up and down at the same time so somebody’s out to lunch here. The race is tight and McCain is just starting to hit Obama on the terrorist connection. I think that’ll really hurt Obama. And then there’s the communist/islamist Odinga connection. I hope McCain is watching that one closely.


20 posted on 10/09/2008 7:29:58 AM PDT by nailspitter
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To: crosslink

Damn. The emotional roller coaster continues. Just minutes ago I was encouraged by Battleground.

Still it is hard to believe this many people change their mind on a daily basis. Some of those number swings are stunning.


21 posted on 10/09/2008 7:30:05 AM PDT by TNCMAXQ
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To: tatown

They are probably ajusting the survey results by the ACORN voter registration drive. Some percentage of Democrat voters now need multiple counts.


22 posted on 10/09/2008 7:30:26 AM PDT by Proud2BeRight
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To: se_ohio_young_conservative

No. I would just feel better if I didnt see polls like these daily. Down 10, down 6, down down down. Not giving up just wishing for a good day.


23 posted on 10/09/2008 7:30:42 AM PDT by GoCards
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To: tatown

If you compare this to Rasmussen and Zogby, it doesnt make much sense.


24 posted on 10/09/2008 7:30:52 AM PDT by se_ohio_young_conservative (GO Sarah Palin !)
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To: GoCards

Rasmussen shows a trend toward McCain. Zogby is still tight.


25 posted on 10/09/2008 7:31:36 AM PDT by se_ohio_young_conservative (GO Sarah Palin !)
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To: maeng

I don’t believe any polls anymore. Even the ‘’intellectuals’’ at MSNBC admit that Gov. Palin is a wonderful candidate( except for the smartarse blonde who co-anchors koffee vit joe)


26 posted on 10/09/2008 7:31:46 AM PDT by shadeaud
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To: Perdogg

This poll was being promoted here yesterday...


27 posted on 10/09/2008 7:31:52 AM PDT by tatown
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To: rom
5% oversample of Dems. Interesting.

Yes and as I remember ,and someone please correct me if I am wrong, but actual voting the last two elections was 37/37/26. It will boil down to the last week like Regan Carter on how the ind go.

28 posted on 10/09/2008 7:32:43 AM PDT by crosslink (Moderates should play in the middle of a busy street)
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To: shadeaud

What proof, if any, show her numbers down?


29 posted on 10/09/2008 7:33:04 AM PDT by maeng
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To: tatown

2 of 3 showing Obama +15(am I understanding your correctly?). If that’s the case then I will not pay this any attention.


30 posted on 10/09/2008 7:33:35 AM PDT by wiseprince
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To: crosslink

Sorry Regan is Reagan, I named my daughter Regan so forgive me.


31 posted on 10/09/2008 7:33:51 AM PDT by crosslink (Moderates should play in the middle of a busy street)
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To: Perdogg

Chuck Todd/Charlie Cook’s poll./all members in cell block C were polled so much for polls.


32 posted on 10/09/2008 7:34:28 AM PDT by Vaduz (and just think how clean the cities would become again.)
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To: IMissPresidentReagan
Jeez these polls are killing me.

They're making me laugh!

33 posted on 10/09/2008 7:34:31 AM PDT by houeto ("Drill Here! Drill Now!" & "Go Palin, Go!")
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To: crosslink

Hotline has lost credibility with such erratic movement in its poll. For two days in a row, it had McCain virtually tied with Obama on the economy and then today it’s +6 for Obama. I also don’t believe men are going for Obama over McCain or that Sarah is slipping in approval.


34 posted on 10/09/2008 7:34:33 AM PDT by Proudcongal (POW/WOW '08)
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To: tatown
You are really obsessed with polls and you believe them. You need to use your brain instead of the media telling you what is going on via biased polls.

If you think that the candidate of Jeremiah Wright church is going to win this elections then go ahead and believe these biased polls.

35 posted on 10/09/2008 7:35:35 AM PDT by jveritas (Use the nuclear option against Obama: Jeremiah Wright)
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To: tatown

2 of 3 showing Obama +15(am I understanding your correctly?). If that’s the case then I will not pay this any attention.


36 posted on 10/09/2008 7:35:40 AM PDT by wiseprince
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To: Longstreet63

“He also has a 2 pt. lead over McCain among men”

That doesn’t seem possible to me. Anyone else?

.
.
.
.
.
.

Yea, that’s a bunch of crap.


37 posted on 10/09/2008 7:35:40 AM PDT by snarkytart
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To: maeng

The DBM mantra is that she is too polarizing. You either worship her or you despise her.

That may be true somewhat. Our morning drive time host (Bill Handel) has called her a dangerous nut job. He claims he won’t vote for Obama however. Whatever, I only listen to KFI now for Rush. They also turn their noses up at Gov. Palin.

I do think she is slightly wet behind the ears (let’s be honest with ourselves, she sometimes does sound like she’s giving a canned response to questions), but she’s a quick study. You CAN be a quick study if you have a fundamental belief system.

In 4 years, she will be a force to reckon with.


38 posted on 10/09/2008 7:35:40 AM PDT by rom (Cold on McCain '08. Enthusiastic about McCain-Palin '08!)
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To: tatown

I suspect that what “swung” were not the actual voter preferences of the respondents, but the percentage of Democrats relative to Republicans in the poll. That’s how these pollsters create these wild swings.


39 posted on 10/09/2008 7:35:46 AM PDT by kesg
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To: nailspitter

In meterology, we look at forecast models. The GFS, NAM, EURO, UKMET,.

When the models show a wild swing, we look at the other models to see a trend. I do not need a 15 point swing to Obama in 12 hours.


40 posted on 10/09/2008 7:35:50 AM PDT by se_ohio_young_conservative (GO Sarah Palin !)
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To: crosslink

He also has a 2 pt. lead over McCain among men.

This does not makes sense. I cannot see guys voting for Obama. Hell, even the Log Cabin Gay guys are voting for McCain...lol. This particular survey is crap. He might be ahead with woman but no way by men.


41 posted on 10/09/2008 7:35:56 AM PDT by napscoordinator
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To: tatown

2 of 3 showing Obama +15(am I understanding your correctly?). If that’s the case then I will not pay this any attention.


42 posted on 10/09/2008 7:36:22 AM PDT by wiseprince
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To: tatown

BIG LEAGUE BRAVO SIERRA ALERT!!!!!!!!

All the polls are crap, but this one is more obvious than others.

10/8 Poll Sample 41% dem 36% Rep 18% Ind

10/7 Poll Sample 40% dem 38% Rep 18% Ind

Two issues here:

1. Party ID swings 3% in ONE DAY with only one third of your sample coming on that day?

2. The total samples only reach 95-95% on either of the days, which is impossible unless they are asking about third parties. Is there really going to be a 4-5% other party vote on election day? If so, the pollsters need to ask about Libertarian and Green Party, along with Ralph Nerder.


43 posted on 10/09/2008 7:37:04 AM PDT by johncocktoasten (Obama/Biden '08, in and of itself, A Bridge To Nowhere)
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To: tatown

Did I promote it??? Yes or no?


44 posted on 10/09/2008 7:37:28 AM PDT by Perdogg ("That One" for President - of Kenya, Say no to Barack Odinga)
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To: The G Man

41%D, 36%R, 18%I.

This is so stupid. If I ran a survey, I would ask 35/35/30 who they plan to vote for. If I oversample or undersample than fine, but at least it would be closer to what it actually would be.


45 posted on 10/09/2008 7:37:41 AM PDT by napscoordinator
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To: crosslink
He also has a 2 pt. lead over McCain among men

These jerks want us to believe that Jeremiah Wright apprentice is getting more votes among men than Bill Clinton got in 1992, and 1996, and Gore got in 2000, and Kerry got in 2004.

46 posted on 10/09/2008 7:38:03 AM PDT by jveritas (Use the nuclear option against Obama: Jeremiah Wright)
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To: rom

Eh..whatever. No other polls show her slipping, and the VP debate was tied with the most ever watched debate including presidential debates.


47 posted on 10/09/2008 7:38:34 AM PDT by snarkytart
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To: napscoordinator
The real story in this election is going to be the union guys and moderates who don't vote. I have many GM workers in my area and i have spoke to them in the last few weeks. They will tell people at the plant they are voting for ONE but after a few beers they will admit they cannot stand the limp wrist-ed liberal.
48 posted on 10/09/2008 7:40:36 AM PDT by crosslink (Moderates should play in the middle of a busy street)
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To: tatown

How do they pick the respondents?

Are they they noozpeeps?

ACORN members?

The hopenitized?

I don’t really believe them, because their sampling methods are suspect.


49 posted on 10/09/2008 7:40:56 AM PDT by Califreak ("They're not people... They're the ACLU!")
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To: snarkytart

More crazy wild swings that do not make sense. Just get out there and vote.


50 posted on 10/09/2008 7:41:46 AM PDT by Ravi
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