Posted on 10/11/2008 9:51:24 AM PDT by AuntB
Enviro Group Lawsuits, Cost Concerns, Climate Regulation Uncertainty Cited As Major Obstacles To Grid Improvements
Denver, CO (Oct. 1, 2008) -- A new study released this week highlights what experts have been saying for years: the U.S. faces significant risk of power brownouts and blackouts as early as next summer that may cost tens of billions of dollars and threaten lives.
The study, "Lights Out In 2009?" warns that the U.S. "faces potentially crippling electricity brownouts and blackouts beginning in the summer of 2009, which may cost tens of billions of dollars and threaten lives."
"If particularly vulnerable regions, like the Western U.S., experience unusually hot temperatures for prolonged periods of time in 2009, the potential for local brownouts or blackouts is high, with significant risk that local disruptions could cascade into regional outages that could cost the economy tens of billions of dollars," the report warned.
U.S. baseload generation capacity reserve margins "have declined precipitously to 17 percent in 2007, from 30-40 percent in the early 1990s," according to the study. A 12-15 percent capacity reserve margin is the minimum required to ensure reliability and stability of the nation’s electricity system. Compounding this capacity deficiency, the projected U.S. demand in the next ten years is forecast to grow by 18 percent, far exceeding the projected eight percent growth in baseload generation capacity between now and 2016.
The study, which can be downloaded here, estimated that the U.S. will require about 120 gigawatts (GW) of new generation just to maintain a 15 percent reserve margin. That will require at least $300 billion in generation and transmission facility investments by 2016.
"The facts presented in this study should stimulate a call for action by policymakers everywhere. Our nation's electricity system is clearly in trouble and we need to take rapid steps as soon as possible to remedy the situation," said Bob Hanfling, Chairman of the non-profit NextGen Energy Council, which conducted the study. "This isn't the first study to come to these conclusions, and it won't be the last. We hope it illuminates current policy debates, from those on climate change to resource development to infrastructure build-out to national security. We also hope it will sound the alarm for every elected official, policymaker, business leader and citizen concerned about the future prosperity and security of our nation."
The study also identified the primary barriers to getting new power plants and transmission lines built. Chief among these is the "opposition of well-funded environmental groups that oppose and file lawsuits against virtually every new infrastructure project proposed."
Other obstacles include opposition to natural gas production, which is needed to fuel the growing reliance on natural-gas fired power plants; challenges associated with putting more intermittent renewable power sources on the grid; regulatory uncertainty associated with climate change policy development; reluctance by state regulators to approve rate increases related to the imposition of new environmental or climate-related regulation; and the relatively shorter-term approach to resource planning and acquisition that industry has been forced to adopt because of all of the above factors.
Among its other findings were these:
* The U.S. will require more than 14,500 miles of new electricity transmission lines by 2016. Regions represented by the Florida Reliability Coordination Council (FRCC) and the Northeast Power Coordinating Council (NPCC) may require less than 400 miles of new transmission lines, while the Southeast Reliability Council (SERC) may require nearly 2,300 miles. The Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) may require nearly 7,000 miles.
* Substantial increases in wind turbine orders, and new wind capacity, has been slowed by a worldwide turbine shortage and local opposition to wind projects. Since wind generation is expected to grow substantially throughout the U.S., the integration of intermittent resources into the bulk power system is becoming increasingly complex and difficult.
* While renewable energy proponents, and some elected officials, are saying that the U.S. needs to only add renewable power facilities such as wind farms, the annual capacity factor of wind generators is typically about 25 - 35 percent. However, the probability that wind generators are available at their rated value during annual peak periods is only between 5 - 20 percent and varies greatly from year to year and region to region. Wind cannot be considered a reliable baseload capacity resource.
* Rapidly increasing demand for steel and copper has caused spot scarcity of the resources required to manufacture key electrical components, and this commodity demand has increased the theft of critical system components. Manufacturers have attempted to eliminate excess inventories and capacity to increase productivity of their assets, but they are reluctant to add more capacity until they can be certain about future industry investments.
The study also presented a survey of political developments and trends that amount to "structural political barriers being erected to system reliability." It pointed to the fact that "environmental activist groups" are now:
* Suing to block the construction of virtually every single baseload coal-fired power plant, in spite of advanced environmental technologies these plants would deploy.
* Gearing up to block construction of any baseload nuclear power plants across the West.
* Suing or protesting virtually every proposed lease on public lands in the Rocky Mountains for natural gas drilling.
* Working to slow or stop the completion of the two main multi-year, stakeholder-based transmission corridor processes that both Democrats and Republicans in Congress approved as part of the Energy Policy Act of 2005.
* Pushing for additional endangered species designations, which will make siting and construction of both power plants and transmission lines difficult.
* Pressuring government leaders to limit access by larger, baseload technologies to the region's high-voltage transmission grid and, instead proposing to artificially favor non-baseload, intermittent power facilities that will (at some point) further stress the reliability of the entire Western grid.
# # #
The NextGen Energy Council is a non-profit, 501(c)(3) organization comprised of a wide variety of energy and technology leaders and companies that work collaboratively with Governors, federal and state officials, academic institutions and others to promote the rapid development and commercialization of cutting-edge energy technologies.
For a second there, I thought that might be his rectal thermometer! Then finally my eyes focused correctly...
Yup. I've been saying this since the time of Gray-out Gray Davis of California.
And even some FReepers don't get it!
Their DRILL!!! DRILL!!!, DRILL!!! mantra as the only energy source needed in the country, is incredibly myopic.
They have no clue that non-hybrid electric cars need electrical power to charge the batteries.
"I'll get electricity for my electric car from lightning!"
.
True. But neither, Ford, Reagan, BushI, or BushII dissolved the agency.
If I sat in the big chair for one week, 2/3 of DC would be on unemployment.
About the only thing operating would be the Pentagon, and agencies directly related to national security, and immigration (which is related to national security).
Our country is being brought to its knees.
Congress will call the electricity producers on the carpet, blame them, and threaten to “socialize” them.
Wind energy is ridiculously inefficient and yet we continue to build wind farms in the Midwest. A good example of the consequences of relying on wind power happened in Texas on February 28, 2008 when a large weather front shutdown man of the states windmills and resulted in power cuts.
Agreed!
Living in tornado/hurricane land, we have two generators also. You couldn’t give better advice. They are a blessing when the power is out.
I forgot to mention...Buy generators B/4 they are needed. It’s one of the highest gouge rate items when there is an emergency!!!!
Alaska Village Moves from Diesel to ‘Micro-Nuke’ (Well, not quite yet)
http://www.primidi.com/2005/02/06.html
Since 2000 the US population has grown by 23 million or the equivalent of the current population of Texas. About two-thirds of the increase is due to immigration, legal and illegal. We will add another 135 million by 2050, again due primarily to immigration. There is a correlation between increased energy requirements and immigration.
“Since 2000 the US population has grown by 23 million or the equivalent of the current population of Texas. About two-thirds of the increase is due to immigration, legal and illegal. We will add another 135 million by 2050, again due primarily to immigration. There is a correlation between increased energy requirements and immigration.”
Absolutely!
-What does AMNESTY look like?
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/1840655/posts
Do you realize if this AMNESTY happens we are in effect creating the equivilent of adding over 17 more states to this country? And that’s not even considering the chain migration that is in the Senate bill.
Please look at what giving amnesty to as many as 20,000,000 illegal alien foreign nationals actually represents. More than the population of 16 states and DC!
According to the 2000 census, 18,785,867 is the total populations combined of Wyoming, Dist. of Columbia, Vermont, Alaska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Delaware, Montana, Rhode Island, Hawaii, New Hampshire, Maine, Idaho, Nebraska, West Virginia, New Mexico and Nevada.
THINK about that.
http://www.enchantedlearning.com/usa/states/population.shtml
Just in time for Obama odinga to proclaim Marshall law and a rewriting of the CONSTITUTION be in order...
You know in that Eloquent way he has that sends tingles up the legs of the media.
obama is an infection, McCain and Sarah Palin are the only cure.
Yep. Rector estimated that we would add 66 million legal immigrants over 20 years if we had an amnesty and that was based on an 11.9 million illegals. And that number would be well over 100 million if we have 20 million illegals here. Unfortunately, the American public has no idea about the impact chain migration has. Every major challenge this nation faces is either driven or significantly affected by immigration.
“Every major challenge this nation faces is either driven or significantly affected by immigration.”
LOL! Including Obama! I’m sure he wasn’t taught the pledge of allegiance in a foreign nation as a child. Maybe that’s why he didn’t put his hand over his heart....
“obama is an infection, McCain and Sarah Palin are the only cure.”
There’s a tagline!
Do y’all have a generator? A well-prepared mutual friend of ours suggests that would be an excellent precautionary purchase at this time.
None of this is news to any EE paying attention to the power grid issues.
I’ve been telling hippy-dip advocates of “zero emissions vehicles” for years that using huge amounts of electric power to power cars would crump the US HV transmission grid. There simply isn’t enough transmission capacity, and the reason for this is that the grid hasn’t kept up with population shifts and population growth.
The worst part of the electric vehicle load is that there will be a huge, highly correlated load on the system. A large number of people will get home between 5 and 6:30pm, plug in their car and leave it overnight. That is the same time that the electric load is peaking as people get home, turn on A/C in the summer, then start cooking, cleaning, laundry, lights, computers, etc.
There are two solutions to this:
1. More HV transmission capacity. This is hugely expensive.
2. Make smaller power plants, locate them closer to their load centers and dispense with the need for wheeling huge blocks of power between new, huge power sources located at hundreds of miles remove from the area of usage.
There are these neat little 15MW, self-contained nuke reactors that you bury in the ground, hook ‘em up, and start them. Locate these around urban areas and wheel the power over a significantly shorter, cheaper, lower-voltage transmission path into the usage market.
You have not only that, you have your own power transmission and generation co-ordination area.
Other than AK and HI, TX is the only state that could talk about secession and pull it off, physically. You have your own telecom network, you have your own power transmission network, you have a lot of infrastructure in both generation and transmission. No other state in the CONUS can do anything other than dream about secession.
FYI — for people considering gensets:
If power becomes erratic in reliability, please purchase and install (or have an electrician install) a proper transfer switch. There’ nothing you want to do less than allow power to feed back into the grid. Burns up your generator, and presents possible lethal dangers to linemen working on power in your neighborhood.
As for gensets: I like diesels. The slower the diesel, the better. Any 1800 RPM diesel is MUCH better than these 3600 RPM gasoline gensets - the slow-speed diesels will last 10K hours or more with care.
I’ve yet to see any of the gasoline consumer gensets last more than about 500 hours, even with care. They’re just not built for a lot of use - they’re built for erratic use with light loads.
The other nice thing about diesel gensets is that the fuel can last in storage for years. Gasoline varnishes pretty quickly now, but diesel fuel keeps for years. Just put some biocide into the fuel every so often, keep a filter on the fuel tank output line, drain off any water that collects and you’re good to go.
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