Skip to comments.IBD/TIPP Tracking Poll: Day One (Obama 43 v. McCain 41)
Posted on 10/13/2008 6:01:00 PM PDT by BCrago66
In contrast to other polls, which show Obama leading McCain by 4 points (Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby) to 11 (Newsweek), the IBD/TIPP Tracking Poll debuts today with Obama up just 2 points with 13% (including 25% of independents) undecided. The poll was conducted Oct. 6-12 among 825 likely voters.
Q: If the 2008 election for U.S. president were held today and the following were candidates, for whom would you vote? Would you say Democrat Barack Obama or Republican John McCain?
(Excerpt) Read more at ibdeditorials.com ...
I know nothing about this new tracking poll, but I've learned in recent days about the strange apparent over-sampling of Democrats in most other tracking polls.
See the Campaign Spot blog on national Review Online: __________________________
What Were the Partisan Breakdowns in 1974 and 1976?
Dan Riehl calls my attention to another poll that has a wild partisan split, noting that in Gallup, McCain and Obama are getting about the same amount of their base, and McCain is winning independents, 32 percent to 23 percent. Yet Obama is ahead by 8 percent in the tracking poll for this time period. This means that the sample has enough Democrats to not only overcome the margin among independents, but to provide Obama with a large margin.
Again, to refresh:
In 1988, Democrats had a three-point party ID advantage over Republicans (38-35). In 1992, Democrats still had a three-point party ID advantage over Republicans (38-35). In 1996, that advantage increased to four - a shift of one point (39-35). In 2000, Democrats were steady, up by four (39-35), and in 2004 they dropped to even (37-37).
In 2006, the Democrats returned to the lead... 38 percent to 35 percent.
Now, look. I realize Obama has the greatest turnout machine of all time, and the Republican base, at one point very jazzed about a McCain-Palin ticket, is disheartened by Obama's lead and frustrated with McCain's insistence that his opponent is decent and nothing to fear. But are we really talking about a split of nine percent, or fourteen percent, or sixteen percent, even Rasmussen's comparably mild 5.5 percent?
I am hunting for the partisan breakdowns in the electorate in 1974 and 1976. The former was seen as a referendum on the Watergate scandal (Nixon had resigned about two months earlier), with the Republicans losing 48 seats in the House. Wikipedia says the split in 1980 was 43 percent Democrat, 28 percent Republican, but I'd like to double-check that.)
Here’s a clickable link to the Campaign Spot blog:
That's rubbish as related to the base turning out! We'll be going over broken glass and razor wire to STOP the most most dangerous Marxist/Socialist threat EVER to have a stab at becoming POTUS. It's Hillary fright X 10!!!
These nationwide polls mean little. You have to look at the toss up states and see which way they lean.
I think you are understating this problem.
People can say what they want about the Obama ground game but there is zero empirical evidence to suggest that the Democrats could have even the Rasmussen 5% advantage. The best reasonable guess to favor them is 3% based on 2006.
Even that guess is a weak one because congressional elections are not good predictions for voter turnout since it is so much higher in Presid years.
Moreover, does anyone really think that less than 5% of dems are going to vote for mcCain? Does anyone think that less than 5% of dems will sit it out to protest Hillary’s loss?
I have never in my life seen so many angry democrats eager to vote against the nominee. I think these combined numbers could easily be toward 30%.
Last week I watched and angry black female supporter of Clinton back an entire hallway of Obama supporters into a small corner with her vociferous complains about civil rights violations committed by Obama workers during the primaries. The media does not cover this but Dems are keenly aware of this. It left a mark and as the more crass are want to say, “payback is a b****”
That is going to be very true in November.
I think the media knows this and they are screwing with the numbers big time.
LOTS of undecideds in this poll. Most pollsters “push” people until they give a response. TIPP obviously does not.
This is the only polling outfit that ever called me, of the major polls.
The poll worker did a nice job on the phone.
I did not feel like she was trying to bias the poll.
I’m not talking about being polled this year, but in a past election.
The problem is, the state polls are not done very often and are often done by organizations that nobody has ever heard of. Because of polling frequency, state trends usually lag the national trends.
Looks like an interesting poll, but I don’t get why it averages across 6 days, rather than 3 or 4. Seems like by the time each daily poll in released, the information therein will be half-stale.
If I remember correctly, this poll was dead on in 2004. Two points considering the recent economic problems is nothing. If the stock market continues to improve a little McCain will win this thing.
In ‘96 we all knew Dole was dead, Newt was watching Clinton, and Clinton wasn't scary just slick (kinda’ missing him now, though *sigh*).
Did you see the rage at McCain's townhalls? Oh, brother, we will be turning out. I live in L.A. and can't wait to vote for Palin and against the little messiah.
We. Will. Turn Out.
Agreed. I will be crawling across glass and swimming through a shark pool all bloody to vote again the marxist Obama.
IBD is an oustanding paper and William O’Neil (founder) knows market data and statistics. I trust their poll better than the other pollsters.
This poll looks more accurate because it has Obama at 43%. The other polls are TOTALLY insane with Obama anywhere near 50%. A lot of Hillary Democrats hate the guy. You hear about one or two isnane Repubs who are supporting Obama like loser Chuck Hagel but the numbers are tiny.
When was the last Dem to break 50%? I think Clinton missed it in 1996 and Carter had maybe 50.1%. A lot of people loathe Obama.
The internals are there.... This poll seems to have an equal weighting between R and D, too optimistic, IMO
Lying when polled isn’t a good idea. In fact, lying isn’t a good idea, period.
What is the track record for this poll? Has it been accurate in the past?
I would have loved watching that black lady and Clinton supporter back a group of Oabamtons into a hallway corner. It would have been awesome on you Tube. Bless that women.
One poll said 26% of Clinton Dems will be going McCain but I think it may be 30 to 35%. We can grumble about McCain and we WILL fight with him as President but he is acceptable. Many Clinton Dems hate Obama with a passion.
Obama, and even more his supporters, were horrible to Hillary voters and Hillary. He treated Hillary okay but his supporters are incredibly nasty. They burned bridges to hillary Voters aka PUMAs.
You just know that Bill and Hillary hate Obama. Bill can be a buffoon but he is shrewd, calculating and ruthless. Obama humiliated him in front of the world.
Thanks for posting!
If McCain wins, Gallup, Rasmussen and Zogby should be made to apologize for their stupidity in their polling (I’m being generous when I say “stupidity”).
Let’s be honest about Bill Clinton. Politically he was pretty moderate on a lot of stuff. Some NE Republicans are far more liberal. I am not defending the guy. I do not like him but I hope he cuts Obama’s b**ls off after Obama loses. The point is many people found Clinton accpetable going into his second term mainly because the stock market was so strong (manipulation again). I hated him but Dole was lackluster and Clinton hammered him from the start.
Obama is not Clinton in 1996. Like you said - Bill was slick but not totally frightening and Newt was watching Bill.
Moderate Dems and Repubs will fight wild dogs and bears to vote against Obama this year.
I expect ACORN may try some intimidation at some polls.
You're wrong about that. At this stage of the game Dem polls are used for propaganda purposes and to engender a deteriorating effect on Republican morale.
You have got to be one of the most pessimistic people I have ever seen online. I don’t even thing optimistic is in your vocabulary.
I can’t find the internals. Where does it say what percentage of the sample is Democrats, what percentage is Republicans, and what percentage is Independents?
OH NO !
The poll actually uses the last two Presidential voter turnouts as the away to measure the 2008 polls .
The Obama media only allows a 6-10 % Obama advantage in all VALID polls !
So you’ve noticed Too !
He is very supportive all negative McCain poll data !
I think a lot of the Hillary ladies will hang in there for McCain thanks to McCain picking Palin. Male Clinton voters in alrge numbers should go to McCain.
The Clinton voters really believe they were robbed and it appears it was ACORN and Obama robbing them. The MSM brushed it off as a story but the Clinton people know what happened.
Obama stole their Dem Party too. This is their last chance to stop him and voting McCain in the hopes Hillary runs in 2012 is the right approch for them.
Thank you for posting the internals. Did anyone look at the “ideology” section? Now that is peculiar.
It can be surmised that this is showing about 1.5 - 2% edge to Dems in the sampling.
The most accurate national poll in 2004 !
This is not a formula driven tracking poll like Ras or Gallup but a real poll over a 6 day period.
If you look at the internals posted above you will see that many of the numbers reflect how presidential elections have turned out over the past 25 years or so.
Disappointing in the poll is the large Jewish vote for Obama and the even split by Catholics, the latter really pisses me off btw.
Pretty close I'd say based on the party voting stats. I think they are using 2006 as party ID for weighting, Dems +3. Which seems reasonable.
Clinton was only ‘moderate’ because he had a GOP Congress which was very conservative. Clinton was also completely slavishly driven by polls so he might WANT to do stuff but he knew that he would be punished politically and suffer in the polls. And popularity was more important to Clinton than virtually anything else in life other than available women.
With a more realistic weighting, would you expect the lead to be something closer to 5% - 6%? Is so, this would basically match other polls out there right now.
I give much more credence to polling organizations that publish their internals. I don't like Rasmussen or Zogby for that reason alone.
2006 was a banner year for democrats. The party ID was +3 for Dems. Do you prefer pulling numbers out of thin air? Or affirmative action for Barack Obama in the polls?
Yup. ..and justice for all, born and unborn. KofC thing. :-}
I don’t think too many expect D & R turnout to be even this year. It won’t be a 6% difference but it could easily be 2% - 3%.
If I run a kennel, and I tell you that 60 percent of the dogs there like pork, while 70 percent of the cats there prefer chicken, you still don't know what the percentages are of dogs v. cats staying at the kennel. So I still don't have the internals of the IBD poll; thus I don't know if they're over or under-sampling Democrats.
IBD is, evidently, using dems +3 based on the party numbers.
Independents are +2. Obama is + 2. McCain two points does better with republicans than Barack does with democrats and gets 2 points more democrats than Obama does from republicans. I think we can infer from that that IBD is using a Dem +2 or 3 weighting.