Skip to comments.6 of 9 Presidential Election Forecasts Predict Obama Will Win
Posted on 10/16/2008 9:57:28 AM PDT by flattorney
WASHINGTON, D.C.Most of nine forecast models developed by political scientists predict a victory for Senator Barack Obama over Senator John McCain in the two-party contest for the popular vote in the 2008 presidential election. Obama is predicted to win an average of 52% of the vote with an 80% probability that he will gain more than half the total two-party popular vote. Six out of the nine presidential election forecasts predict an Obama victory with popular vote totals ranging from 50.1% to 58.2%, while two predict a race too close to call and one predicts a narrow McCain victory. All of the predictions appear in an election-themed symposium in the October issue of PS: Political Science and Politics, a journal of the American Political Science Association (APSA). The forecasts, published in advance of presidential and mid-term elections, are available online at: https://www.apsanet.org/content_58382.cfm.
The forecasts are based on different combinations of statistical and historical data and differ in their complexity and how far in advance their predictions were made. The earliest forecast was made 294 days in advance while the latest was made 60 days before the election; however, all were made before the Wall Street financial crisis of the past few weeks. Together these forecasts use a range of approaches and indicators that are critical to understanding national electoral processes and the dynamics at work in U.S. presidential elections. Brief summaries of each are provided below:
# # In the earliest completed forecast made in January 2008, Helmut Norpoths (Stony Brook University) Primary Model uses candidate support in presidential primaries to predict the general election two-party popular vote outcome. Norpoths forecast makes Senator Obama the favorite by a razor-thin margin, predicting a 50.1% to 49.9% Obama victory, but also indicates only a 50% chance that Obama will gain a majority.
# # Using data from the second quarter of 2008, Brad Lockerbie (University of Georgia) employs two variables that are decided well in advance of the presidential conventions to forecast the presidential election: the amount of time a party has controlled the White House, and voters expectations concerning their financial well-being over the course of the next year. Lockerbie predicts an impressive victory by Barack Obama, with John McCain gaining only 41.8% of the two-party popular vote en route to a loss in the 2008 presidential election.
# # Alan I. Abramowitzs (Emory University) Time-for-Change forecast model, completed in August 2008, is based on the assumption that a presidential election is fundamentally a referendum on the performance of the incumbent president. Abramowitzs model employs three variables: the growth rate of the economy during the second quarter of the election year, the incumbent presidents approval rating at mid-year, and the length of time the incumbent presidents party has controlled the White House. Abramowitz predicts Senator Barack Obama will receive 54.3% of the two-party popular vote in the 2008 presidential election.
# # Robert S. Erikson (Columbia University) and Christopher Wleziens (Temple University) forecast model analyzes a combination of leading economic indicators and trial-heat polls from August 2008 to predict the elections final outcome. Their model predicts that Senator Obama will win 52.2% of the two-party popular vote, compared with 47.8% for Senator McCain.
# # Michael Lewis-Beck (University of Iowa) and Charles Tien (Hunter College and the Graduate Center, CUNY) Jobs Model weighs the sitting presidents popularity and the actual number of jobs created or lost during his term with the powers of incumbency and economic growth. Unadjusted, it predicts that Senator Obama will win 56.57% of the two-party popular vote in what will amount to the greatest incumbent popular vote loss on record from 1948. However, with refinements to factor in the impact of race, the Jobs Model predicts a final outcome where Senator Obama will win by a smaller margin, garnering 50.1% of the two-party vote and with a 50% chance that Obama will gain a majority. The forecast was made in August 2008.
# # Thomas M. Holbrooks (University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee) forecast model emphasizes presidential approval and the average level of satisfaction with personal finances in the summer before the presidential election. Completed in August 2008, his model predicts Barack Obama will garner 55.7% of the two-party presidential popular vote compared to John McCains 44.3%.
# # Symposium editor James E. Campbells (University at Buffalo, SUNY) Trial Heat forecast model integrates the incumbents trial-heat Labor Day Gallup numbers and the real growth in the GDP in the second quarter of the election year. Completed in early September 2008, the Campbell model breaks with the other forecasts to predict that Senator McCain should be expected to receive 52.7% of the two-party popular vote.
# # Alfred G. Cuzan and Charles M. Bundrick (University of West Florida) use the Fiscal Model forecast and emphasize the relationship between the ratio of federal outlays to GDP and the share of the two-party vote going to incumbents. Completed in August 2008, their forecast predicts the Democratic candidate, Senator Barack Obama, will emerge victorious by a 52%-48% margin.
# # Carl Klarner (Indiana State University) employs a forecast model that focuses on broad range of state and district-level factors. Completed in late July 2008, his forecast predicts Senator Obama will obtain 53.0% of the popular vote and 346 electoral votes.
The 2008 presidential election is taking place in an extraordinary environment. The open-seat nature of the contest, the implications of President Bushs low approval ratings, Senator Obamas decision to forego public financing of his campaign, the effect of race on a contest featuring the first black candidate of a major party in U.S. history, the relative levels of party unity, and the impact of the Wall Street meltdown after these forecasts were produced all combine to make the outcome of the 2008 election unusually difficult to predict. Nevertheless, more of the forecasts predict an Obama victory than not, as the median of these nine forecasts indicates that Senator McCain will receive 48% of the two-party popular vote, concludes symposium editor James Campbell.
# # #
The American Political Science Association (est. 1903) is the leading professional organization for the study of politics and has over 14,000 members in 80 countries. For more news and information about political science research visit the APSA media website, www.politicalsciencenews.org.
Well, the good news is that we’ll finally get that wall along the border. The bad news is that it’ll be to keep us in rather than keep others out.
=== Florida, the #1 2008 Presidential Battleground State === Democrat Winning Presidents that won Florida since 1950:
10.15.08: Obama + 4.8 (Weighted Average, October Polls)
1996: Clinton 48%/42%(Dole) EC 379/159 (Clinton +6)
1976: Carter 52%/47%(Ford) EC 297/240 (Carter +5)
1964: Johnson 51%/49%(Goldwater) EC 486/52 (Johnson +2)
Recent Florida Presidential Margins
2004 Bush 5%
2000 Bush <1%
1996 Clinton 5%
1992 Bush 1% (Clinton Won Election)
Florida had more than 10.7 million voters as of August 2008 - almost 4.5 million Democrats, nearly 4 million Republicans and more than 2.3 million voters who aren't registered with either party. Florida has 415,000 newly registered Democrats, about 50,000 more than newly registered Republicans, according to Secretary of State data. 218,000 more Republicans than Democrats so far have requested absentee ballots, which is a promising sign for McCain's hopes of winning Florida. McCain must carry Florida to have any chance to win the White House.
Barack Obama's campaign is pouring an estimated $42 million into Florida. With about three weeks to go in the election, Obama had spent more than $27.2 million in Florida on the general election, compared to $5.5 million spent by McCain. Obama is running two times as many television ads and three times as many radio ads as McCain in Spanish-language Florida media. Overall, Obama is running 4.5 times as many TV/radio ads in major Florida markets as McCain. Many of Obamas ads run-time are over 90 seconds, not the standard 30 second sound bite ads.
The state is far from homogeneous. Urban South Florida favors Democrats, largely rural north Florida identifies more with the South and votes conservative, and the Interstate 4 corridor that splits the state from Tampa through Orlando to Daytona Beach is where both parties fight aggressively for independents and crossover vote. Now the economy is the #1 topic in the election. Florida's unemployment is higher than the national average and the worst in 13+ years. We also have one of the worst foreclosure rates in the nation. Our senior citizens, who have supported McCain, may not support another Republican in the White House as their retirement accounts get pummeled by the Wall Street financial meltdown.
We, along with other GOP/PAC representatives, are having trouble getting any traction with key Florida State officials regarding Democrats-SSP voters registrations fraud issues. I cannot fault the officials expressed positions at this juncture. We dont have enough examples of blatant fraud with intent.
# # SNIP # #
Mark them down as “That’s their final answer.” Election results will reveal the credibility of their models.
everyone had the Patriots winning the Superbowl last year, too.
And 6 out of 9 Americans are thus mental midgets if true.
I’m trying my best to be positive. But we have a complete jackass for a nominee. :(
Soooo...I guess I don’t have to bother to vote </sarc>
And what percentage of Americans claim they are Christian, yet willing to vote for the #1 Baby Killer Proponent in Congress?
No actually, this means that Obama supporters don't have to vote, its a blowout after all. Didja hear that Obama supporters? Its all over, your guy won, yep yep...
Describes the prelude of every great upset...
The more I think about it, it might actually work out that way. If they are stupid enough to want to vote for 0 knowing nothing about him, they might actually believe that he has already won.
Way to overplay your hand, 0bamaniacs...keep it up!
Here are the thirteen keys to the presidency, presented in question form. Each must answered ''yes'' or ''no.'' Each question is followed by the answer which would favor the election of the candidate of the party in power. Also listed in parenthesis is the answer according to current conditions and the name of the candidate who benefits from it.
1. Did the incumbent party gain at least 51 percent of the vote cast in the previous election? Yes. (No. George W. Bush.)
2. Was there a serious contest for the nomination of the incumbent party candidate? No. (Yes. Bush.)
3. Was there major third party activity during the election year? No. (No. Albert Gore.)
4. Is the incumbent party candidate the sitting president? Yes. (No. Bush. However, Professor Lichtman pointed out if the candidate had been ''annointed'' by the incumbent president, this key might not be a strong factor.)
5. Was the yearly mean per-capita rate of growth in real Gross National Product during the incumbent administration equal to or greater than the mean rate of the previous eight years, and equal to or greater than 1 percent? Yes. (Yes. Gore.)
6. Is the election year a time of recession or depression? No. (No. Gore.)
7. Did the incumbent president initiate major changes in national policy? Yes. (Yes. Gore.)
8.Was there major social unrest during the incumbent administration? No. (No. Gore.)
9. Was the incumbent administration tainted by major scandal? No. (Yes. Bush.)
10. Did the incumbent party suffer a major setback in foreign or military policy? No. (No. Gore.)
11. Did it achieve a major success in foreign or military policy? Yes. (Yes. Gore.)
12. Is the incumbent party candidate charismatic or a national hero? Yes. (No. Bush.)
13. Is the challenging party candidate charismatic or a national hero? No. (No. Gore.)
The tally is eight keys turned to victory for Vice President Gore, and five for Governor Bush.
So now they’re taking polls of the forecasts!!
They’ll do anything and everything to try to depress the American vote (not the democrat vote mind you, just the American vote).
Elistist ESPN tools have been 'shocked' by the Rays, as well...
sigh, I just want to go home and get in the bed and hide under the sheets until election day. :)
A silver lining: better to feel this way now than the day before the election. There is still time...
Unfortunately, John McCain will still be John McCain.
BUT Barack Obama is still Barack Obama. And that’s something in our favor.
Did they have a Joe the Plumber variable in their fancy formulae?........
Yes, but what is President Dewey predicting?
Well,,,they just might perhaps maybe sorta kinda ya know be on to something here. or maybe not. I saw a cloud go by yesterday that looked like the Obamesiah. It was a sign that he will win,,,or maybe not.
You saw a cloud, I heard a Boom, thus BO must be inevitable, these polls are just like the chicken bones trown by the voodoo ladies in Jamaica.
IMHO, I see McPalin by 5%+...
From These geniuses in 2004
Kerry vs. Bush
Past voting patterns give the edge to the Democrats this November.
History has some good news for the Democrats.
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