Skip to comments.Obama leads among white independents
Posted on 10/17/2008 4:04:25 PM PDT by Hadean
Barack Obama has taken a slight lead with white independent voters for the first time in the presidential race, positioning him to capture a key demographic group that has eluded recent Democratic nominees, according to a Politico analysis of independent voting patterns.
According to Gallup’s weekly average of some 6,400 registered voters, Obama now holds a 45 percent-43 percent edge over Republican John McCain with white independents. About eight in 10 independents are white.
Should Obama’s support hold, he is positioned to become the first Democrat to win white independents in a two-man race since the advent of exit polling.
As recently as last week, McCain led within this group by eight percentage points. His lead was as high as 16 points in mid-September, in the week before the stock market's first meltdown.
Obama’s gains with white independents, who represent more than one in five voters overall, are a particular problem for the GOP. Unlike four years ago, Democrats significantly outnumber Republicans heading into Election Day, and John McCain will need to win these voters to overcome the gap.
At the outset of the general election, Republicans were optimistic that McCain’s “maverick” image would make him an especially attractive candidate to independents. But it now appears that the recent economic crisis has undercut McCain’s appeal to this centrist bloc.
According to a recent Associated Press-GfK Poll, independents and Democrats tend to view recent market events with similar levels of alarm — 82 percent of independents and 89 percent of Democrats are concerned that the economic crisis will cause a “long-term toll on them,” compared with only 65 percent of Republicans.
Independents also join Democrats in viewing the next president’s capacity to handle the economy as more important than his capacity to handle national security, and both groups trust Obama more on the economy itself.
White independent women believe Obama can better improve U.S. economic conditions, 44 percent to 29 percent, while white independent men also have slightly more trust in Obama to handle the economy, 44 percent to 39 percent, according to recent polling by the Pew Research Center. Obama holds even larger margins on the economic issue among white men and women classified by Pew as persuadable “swing voters,” the bulk of which are independents.
White voters overall believe that Obama would do the “best job of improving economic conditions,” 46 percent to 38 percent, according to Pew.
Obama's advantage on the economy stretches into voter concerns over gas prices. Fifty-five percent of white independent men and a plurality of white independent women, 40 percent, believe Obama would do the "best job" of "dealing with the nation's energy problems."
Still, white independents, like all white voters, remain suspect of the $700 billion bailout package supported by both Obama and McCain. Pew finds that overwhelming majorities of all whites, independents included, are concerned that the government is “too involved in financial markets,” that those responsible for the financial crisis are being “let off the hook” and that the bailout “won’t fix what caused problems.”
For McCain, there is some promise among this white independent cohort. Only about a third of independent white men and women believe McCain would “continue Bush’s policies,” while half of all independents — 57 percent of those who are white men and 47 percent, a plurality, of those who are white women — believe McCain would “take the country in a different direction.”
Independent white men also believe, 62 percent to 23 percent, that McCain is more capable of making “wise decisions about what to do in Iraq.” White female independents say the same, 52 percent to 29 percent. More than six in 10 white independents believe McCain would do the “best job of making wise decisions about foreign policy.” These voters believe McCain could better defend against a terrorist attack by more than a 2-1 ratio. Taken as a whole, this data suggests that a national security or terrorism-related event could suddenly move these voters toward the Republican nominee.
Among independent whites, men are more prone to view Obama as not “well qualified” to be president, 57 percent to 37 percent. A slim majority of independent white women agree, though the margin is considerably narrower — 51 percent to 43 percent.
It'll take Obama three days to get Politico's lipstick off his ass.
Dont they mean maggot infested dope smokin hippie whites?
Politico is hoping to become the messiah’s official propaganda machine. The U.S. version of Tass or Pravada, if you will.
Politico? Wait....isn’t that that no-credibility “blognews” organisation I hear a few people talk about on occasion?
Politico is made up of Washington Post castoffs who bailed out before getting laid off.
Their wisdom is nonexistent.
“Should Obamas support hold, he is positioned to become the first Democrat to win white independents in a two-man race since the advent of exit polling”.
Yea, that’s not going to happen.
From the “If we keep putting out these stories, maybe people will believe it” file..
Exactly - not going to happen.
"Should Obamas support hold, he is positioned to become the first Democrat to win white independents in a two-man race since the advent of exit polling."
Huh? Gallup's survey is not an exit poll. The reporter...err blogger...has no clue what he's writing about here.
Poltico is so full of sh*t.
Can’t be. Whitey is racist.
Yes, I believe you are right.
another bias piece by politico
why don’t the obama media just say pack up and go home Mccain, lets not have an election
do one media and the politico fools, your biased polling is not working
remember obama was supposed to win NH
White independent voters are suicidal. Politico was founded
by WP reporters and they write with wet panties for Obama.
B U L L S Q U E E Z E !!!!!!
They will get stiff competition from NY Times, CNN, MSCNBC, NBC, CBS, ABC...
If the messiah gets elected, politico will probably become "Pravada the Next Generation".
Yep! Thank god for the Bradley effect!
And I always thought that the independents were the ones who were a little more intelligent, and looked at things in a deeper way. It turns out maybe that they are looking for a dictator to rule them. That is if there is any truth to this. And truth is hard to find these days.
Is this the same Gallup poll that has 58% Democrats or whatever it is in their sample?
Whites have always been the GOP’s power base, especially white males. I believe that LBJ was the last Dem to get the majority of the white vote. I just have a hard time believing this.
Hmmm, sure am glad Senator McCain isn’t rolling out Jeremiah Wright again.
They forgot to mention that they polled the nyslimes reporters cafeteria
This smells like BS. I thought McCain led overall among independents in Gallup, but was down only due to a Dem oversample.
No he doesn’t.
Anyone know what percentage of registered republicans actually voted in the last election? If just 80 percent of the people who claim to be a republican would just go vote I think it would be a McCain blow out. I think that any republican who does not take the time to vote this time should hold their head in shame.
Who leads among black independents?
There’s no such thing as an independent. They’re just liberals who are ashamed to admit they’re democrats. Bill O comes to mind.
I read the Politico article (or at least skimmed it), and I don’t understand their claim that Obama leads 45-43 among white independents. When I go to Gallup’s internals, I don’t find this particular information. I find information for white voters and information for independent voters, but not both at the same time.
Here are three things I do know. One, most of the remaining undecideds are Independents. Two, most of the remaining undecideds are white voters. And three, by comparing current white voter numbers with the 2004 exit polls, I find that Obama is slightly underperforming Kerry and McCain is slightly more underperforming Bush — meaning that more of the remaining undecideds are likely Bush voters rather than Kerry voters.
And keep in mind that in any event, the Gallup internals reflect registered voters. There seems to be a pretty big gap right now between Gallup’s registered voter numbers and its traditional LV numbers (today it is 5 points; in 2004, the gap was 4 points in its final Gallup poll before the election).
Does anyone know where Gallup is getting this information? I visit Gallup’s website pretty regularly to look at the internals, but I didn’t find anything like this. You can get information about independents and information about white voters, but not both at the same time as far as I know.
There is no such thing as black independents. They’re all on the vote farm slaves to their Democrat masters.
A##wipes who will soon learn they have been had!
Enjoy your messiah morons!
“Registered”=McCain is even or slightly ahead among “likely.” Folks, its starting to slip away from the Messiah.
He leads with WHITE KIDS....students and singles that have NO Just like Howard Dean was their choice years ago.
He leads with WHITE KIDS....students and singles that have NO KIDS!!Just like Howard Dean was their choice years ago.