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Obama leads among white independents
Politico ^ | 10-17-2008 | DAVID PAUL KUHN

Posted on 10/17/2008 4:04:25 PM PDT by Hadean

Barack Obama has taken a slight lead with white independent voters for the first time in the presidential race, positioning him to capture a key demographic group that has eluded recent Democratic nominees, according to a Politico analysis of independent voting patterns.

According to Gallup’s weekly average of some 6,400 registered voters, Obama now holds a 45 percent-43 percent edge over Republican John McCain with white independents. About eight in 10 independents are white.

Should Obama’s support hold, he is positioned to become the first Democrat to win white independents in a two-man race since the advent of exit polling.

As recently as last week, McCain led within this group by eight percentage points. His lead was as high as 16 points in mid-September, in the week before the stock market's first meltdown.

Obama’s gains with white independents, who represent more than one in five voters overall, are a particular problem for the GOP. Unlike four years ago, Democrats significantly outnumber Republicans heading into Election Day, and John McCain will need to win these voters to overcome the gap.

At the outset of the general election, Republicans were optimistic that McCain’s “maverick” image would make him an especially attractive candidate to independents. But it now appears that the recent economic crisis has undercut McCain’s appeal to this centrist bloc.

According to a recent Associated Press-GfK Poll, independents and Democrats tend to view recent market events with similar levels of alarm — 82 percent of independents and 89 percent of Democrats are concerned that the economic crisis will cause a “long-term toll on them,” compared with only 65 percent of Republicans.

Independents also join Democrats in viewing the next president’s capacity to handle the economy as more important than his capacity to handle national security, and both groups trust Obama more on the economy itself.

White independent women believe Obama can better improve U.S. economic conditions, 44 percent to 29 percent, while white independent men also have slightly more trust in Obama to handle the economy, 44 percent to 39 percent, according to recent polling by the Pew Research Center. Obama holds even larger margins on the economic issue among white men and women classified by Pew as persuadable “swing voters,” the bulk of which are independents.

White voters overall believe that Obama would do the “best job of improving economic conditions,” 46 percent to 38 percent, according to Pew.

Obama's advantage on the economy stretches into voter concerns over gas prices. Fifty-five percent of white independent men and a plurality of white independent women, 40 percent, believe Obama would do the "best job" of "dealing with the nation's energy problems."

Still, white independents, like all white voters, remain suspect of the $700 billion bailout package supported by both Obama and McCain. Pew finds that overwhelming majorities of all whites, independents included, are concerned that the government is “too involved in financial markets,” that those responsible for the financial crisis are being “let off the hook” and that the bailout “won’t fix what caused problems.”

For McCain, there is some promise among this white independent cohort. Only about a third of independent white men and women believe McCain would “continue Bush’s policies,” while half of all independents — 57 percent of those who are white men and 47 percent, a plurality, of those who are white women — believe McCain would “take the country in a different direction.”

Independent white men also believe, 62 percent to 23 percent, that McCain is more capable of making “wise decisions about what to do in Iraq.” White female independents say the same, 52 percent to 29 percent. More than six in 10 white independents believe McCain would do the “best job of making wise decisions about foreign policy.” These voters believe McCain could better defend against a terrorist attack by more than a 2-1 ratio. Taken as a whole, this data suggests that a national security or terrorism-related event could suddenly move these voters toward the Republican nominee.

Among independent whites, men are more prone to view Obama as not “well qualified” to be president, 57 percent to 37 percent. A slim majority of independent white women agree, though the margin is considerably narrower — 51 percent to 43 percent.


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2008polls; blackvote; exitpolling; independant; independentvote; leftwingconspiracy; mccain; metrosexuals; polls; swingvote; voters; white; whitevote
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That's racist.
1 posted on 10/17/2008 4:04:25 PM PDT by Hadean
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To: Hadean
"Politico"

It'll take Obama three days to get Politico's lipstick off his ass.

2 posted on 10/17/2008 4:06:08 PM PDT by pabianice (Inexplicable and infuriating.)
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To: Hadean

Dont they mean maggot infested dope smokin hippie whites?


3 posted on 10/17/2008 4:06:09 PM PDT by HANG THE EXPENSE (Defeat liberalism, its the right thing to do for America.)
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To: Hadean

Politico is hoping to become the messiah’s official propaganda machine. The U.S. version of Tass or Pravada, if you will.


4 posted on 10/17/2008 4:06:44 PM PDT by FlingWingFlyer (I'm just going to spread YOUR wealth around - Barack HUSSEIN Obama.)
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To: Hadean

5 posted on 10/17/2008 4:07:04 PM PDT by Colonial Warrior (Never approach a bull from the front, a horse from the rear, or a fool from any direction.)
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To: Hadean

Politico? Wait....isn’t that that no-credibility “blognews” organisation I hear a few people talk about on occasion?


6 posted on 10/17/2008 4:07:21 PM PDT by Titus Quinctius Cincinnatus (Here they come boys! As thick as grass, and as black as thunder!)
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To: Hadean

Manure.


7 posted on 10/17/2008 4:07:39 PM PDT by facedown (Armed in the Heartland)
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To: Hadean

Horsesh!t !


8 posted on 10/17/2008 4:07:46 PM PDT by tomkat
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To: Hadean

Politico is made up of Washington Post castoffs who bailed out before getting laid off.

Their wisdom is nonexistent.


9 posted on 10/17/2008 4:08:28 PM PDT by oldbill
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To: tomkat

“Should Obama’s support hold, he is positioned to become the first Democrat to win white independents in a two-man race since the advent of exit polling”.
.
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.
.
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Yea, that’s not going to happen.


10 posted on 10/17/2008 4:08:57 PM PDT by snarkytart
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To: Hadean

From the “If we keep putting out these stories, maybe people will believe it” file..


11 posted on 10/17/2008 4:10:16 PM PDT by Fedupwithit (Republicans believe every day is the Fourth of July, but the democrats believe every day is April 15)
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To: snarkytart

Exactly - not going to happen.


12 posted on 10/17/2008 4:10:23 PM PDT by Norman Bates (Freepmail me to be part of the McCain List!)
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To: Hadean
"According to Gallup’s weekly average of some 6,400 registered voters, Obama now holds a 45 percent-43 percent edge over Republican John McCain with white independents. About eight in 10 independents are white."

"Should Obama’s support hold, he is positioned to become the first Democrat to win white independents in a two-man race since the advent of exit polling."

Huh? Gallup's survey is not an exit poll. The reporter...err blogger...has no clue what he's writing about here.

13 posted on 10/17/2008 4:10:36 PM PDT by Azzurri
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To: Hadean
PROJECTION!!!! keep it up MSM....keep it up....making us regular folks really mad is really going to help /sarc
14 posted on 10/17/2008 4:11:05 PM PDT by goodnesswins (Socialism is great until you run out of someone else's money (M. Thatcher))
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To: Hadean

Poltico is so full of sh*t.


15 posted on 10/17/2008 4:11:18 PM PDT by nhwingut (,)
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To: Hadean

Can’t be. Whitey is racist.


16 posted on 10/17/2008 4:11:19 PM PDT by itsthejourney (1 of every 10 people you pass in the mall is here illegally)
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To: Fedupwithit

Busy little birdies down there at Politico in the last few days. The “deject-GOP-voter” effort is definitely in overdrive....


17 posted on 10/17/2008 4:11:51 PM PDT by wolf24 ("It's always easy to rally the stupid.")
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To: imahawk
Don't they mean maggot infested dope smokin SAT shunning anti-military French muslim activist homosexual hippie whites between the ages of 18 and 20 who are hooked on TMZ?

Yes, I believe you are right.

18 posted on 10/17/2008 4:11:52 PM PDT by DoughtyOne (Is Obamanation what our founding fathers, our fallen men in combat, and Ronald Reagan had in mind?)
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To: Hadean
Before or After the "Joe The Plumber" incident?


19 posted on 10/17/2008 4:12:07 PM PDT by darkwing104 (Lets get dangerous)
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To: snarkytart
If any group/s are gonna bury the Manchurian Negro's coup attempt, it's gonna be us old folks and white independents.

/.02

20 posted on 10/17/2008 4:12:46 PM PDT by tomkat
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To: Hadean

another bias piece by politico

why don’t the obama media just say pack up and go home Mccain, lets not have an election

do one media and the politico fools, your biased polling is not working

remember obama was supposed to win NH
LOL


21 posted on 10/17/2008 4:12:48 PM PDT by manc (Marriage is between a man and a woman no sick MA,CT sham marriage end racism end affirmative action)
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To: facedown

Hogwash!


22 posted on 10/17/2008 4:14:09 PM PDT by Florida native
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To: Titus Quinctius Cincinnatus
MAN! We getting stepped on every which way! My hubby just get home from work and told me he just heard the news that Ozero was going to win in a “BLOWOUT”! I had to straighten him up on that one. He was pretty bummed over the SC ruling and the Yahoo screaming headline didn't help either... Sigh, I guess this is what the majority of folk read and see on the tube. GOD HELP US!
23 posted on 10/17/2008 4:14:23 PM PDT by RoseofTexas
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To: Hadean

White independent voters are suicidal. Politico was founded
by WP reporters and they write with wet panties for Obama.


24 posted on 10/17/2008 4:15:30 PM PDT by Anti-Bubba182
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To: Hadean

One word:

B U L L S Q U E E Z E !!!!!!


25 posted on 10/17/2008 4:20:49 PM PDT by clee1 (We use 43 muscles to frown, 17 to smile, and 2 to pull a trigger. I'm lazy and I'm tired of smiling.)
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To: Hadean

26 posted on 10/17/2008 4:20:56 PM PDT by smokingfrog ( God doesn't wear a wristwatch.)
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To: FlingWingFlyer

They will get stiff competition from NY Times, CNN, MSCNBC, NBC, CBS, ABC...


27 posted on 10/17/2008 4:22:27 PM PDT by winner3000
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To: FlingWingFlyer
Politico is hoping to become the messiah’s official propaganda machine. The U.S. version of Tass or Pravada, if you will.

If the messiah gets elected, politico will probably become "Pravada the Next Generation".

28 posted on 10/17/2008 4:22:47 PM PDT by Evil Slayer (Sarah Palin reminds me of the story about David and Goliath)
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To: itsthejourney

Yep! Thank god for the Bradley effect!


29 posted on 10/17/2008 4:23:37 PM PDT by skimbell (Life, Liberty and the pursuit of all who threaten either.)
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To: Hadean

And I always thought that the independents were the ones who were a little more intelligent, and looked at things in a deeper way. It turns out maybe that they are looking for a dictator to rule them. That is if there is any truth to this. And truth is hard to find these days.


30 posted on 10/17/2008 4:28:01 PM PDT by Revel
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To: Hadean

Is this the same Gallup poll that has 58% Democrats or whatever it is in their sample?


31 posted on 10/17/2008 4:28:20 PM PDT by Recovering_Democrat (A vote for Hussein is insane!)
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To: Hadean

BS


32 posted on 10/17/2008 4:28:43 PM PDT by Names Ash Housewares (Refusing to kneel before the polling gods and whimper.)
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To: Hadean
Politico is staffed full of round mouthed kneepad Democrats.
33 posted on 10/17/2008 4:28:59 PM PDT by vetvetdoug
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To: Hadean

Whites have always been the GOP’s power base, especially white males. I believe that LBJ was the last Dem to get the majority of the white vote. I just have a hard time believing this.


34 posted on 10/17/2008 4:30:26 PM PDT by kabar
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To: Hadean

Hmmm, sure am glad Senator McCain isn’t rolling out Jeremiah Wright again.


35 posted on 10/17/2008 4:31:44 PM PDT by FlipWilson
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To: Hadean
On Elections Day the 12% of undecided white independents will go to McCain in a margin of 90%. Hillary Clinton won the undecided white voters the primaries again and again and again with 90% margin. Those are not really undecided they are simply not going to tell the pollsters that they are not voting for Obama for fear of being branded racists. The final results of white independents will be 53% McCain 47% Obama on Elections Day.
36 posted on 10/17/2008 4:35:08 PM PDT by jveritas (Use the nuclear option against Obama: Jeremiah Wright)
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To: FlipWilson

They forgot to mention that they polled the nyslimes reporters cafeteria


37 posted on 10/17/2008 4:35:39 PM PDT by italianquaker (I wish the media would investigate odumbo as much as they are investigating joe the plumber)
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To: kesg
According to Gallup’s weekly average of some 6,400 registered voters, Obama now holds a 45 percent-43 percent edge over Republican John McCain with white independents. About eight in 10 independents are white.

This smells like BS. I thought McCain led overall among independents in Gallup, but was down only due to a Dem oversample.

38 posted on 10/17/2008 4:41:45 PM PDT by Chet 99 (Vote McCain/Palin, or this will be our future: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QTb5EFZmgbs)
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To: Hadean

No he doesn’t.


39 posted on 10/17/2008 4:43:24 PM PDT by combat_boots (From the Bush Derangement Syndrome(TM) to the 0bama Worship Cult in which NOTHING matters. USSKKKA)
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To: Hadean

Anyone know what percentage of registered republicans actually voted in the last election? If just 80 percent of the people who claim to be a republican would just go vote I think it would be a McCain blow out. I think that any republican who does not take the time to vote this time should hold their head in shame.


40 posted on 10/17/2008 4:44:13 PM PDT by TonyM (E)
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To: Hadean

Who leads among black independents?


41 posted on 10/17/2008 4:52:53 PM PDT by Continental Soldier
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To: Revel

There’s no such thing as an independent. They’re just liberals who are ashamed to admit they’re democrats. Bill O comes to mind.


42 posted on 10/17/2008 5:02:20 PM PDT by Terry Mross (O)
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To: Chet 99

I read the Politico article (or at least skimmed it), and I don’t understand their claim that Obama leads 45-43 among white independents. When I go to Gallup’s internals, I don’t find this particular information. I find information for white voters and information for independent voters, but not both at the same time.

Here are three things I do know. One, most of the remaining undecideds are Independents. Two, most of the remaining undecideds are white voters. And three, by comparing current white voter numbers with the 2004 exit polls, I find that Obama is slightly underperforming Kerry and McCain is slightly more underperforming Bush — meaning that more of the remaining undecideds are likely Bush voters rather than Kerry voters.

And keep in mind that in any event, the Gallup internals reflect registered voters. There seems to be a pretty big gap right now between Gallup’s registered voter numbers and its traditional LV numbers (today it is 5 points; in 2004, the gap was 4 points in its final Gallup poll before the election).


43 posted on 10/17/2008 5:04:03 PM PDT by kesg
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To: Hadean

Does anyone know where Gallup is getting this information? I visit Gallup’s website pretty regularly to look at the internals, but I didn’t find anything like this. You can get information about independents and information about white voters, but not both at the same time as far as I know.


44 posted on 10/17/2008 5:05:19 PM PDT by kesg
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To: Continental Soldier

There is no such thing as black independents. They’re all on the vote farm slaves to their Democrat masters.


45 posted on 10/17/2008 5:07:51 PM PDT by rvoitier (If Obama wants us to believe he's not a radical Muslim he needs to stop acting like one.)
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To: Hadean

A##wipes who will soon learn they have been had!
Enjoy your messiah morons!


46 posted on 10/17/2008 5:19:01 PM PDT by ronnie raygun (THE NEW MILLIONAIRES CLUB : YOUR FRIENDLY NIEGHBORHOOD CONGRESSMEN)
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To: Hadean

“Registered”=McCain is even or slightly ahead among “likely.” Folks, its starting to slip away from the Messiah.


47 posted on 10/17/2008 5:23:58 PM PDT by LS ("Castles made of sand, fall in the sea . . . eventually." (Hendrix))
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To: Hadean

He leads with WHITE KIDS....students and singles that have NO Just like Howard Dean was their choice years ago.


48 posted on 10/17/2008 5:24:57 PM PDT by Ann Archy (Abortion.....The Human Sacrifice to the god of Convenience.)
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To: Hadean

He leads with WHITE KIDS....students and singles that have NO KIDS!!Just like Howard Dean was their choice years ago.


49 posted on 10/17/2008 5:25:19 PM PDT by Ann Archy (Abortion.....The Human Sacrifice to the god of Convenience.)
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To: DoughtyOne

You’re good.


50 posted on 10/17/2008 5:41:08 PM PDT by HANG THE EXPENSE (Defeat liberalism, its the right thing to do for America.)
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