Posted on 10/20/2008 9:45:41 AM PDT by tatown
“Almost 12 percent undecided,that’s alot.”....
How in hell can anyone be undecided at this point outside the brain dead?.....
I have always put a lot of stock in Mason-Dixon’s state polling.
They’re really McCain voters lying to the pollsters.
What was the exact “Bradly Effect” margin in percentage points?
Virtually the same as yesterday. As always, I’m waiting to see internals for this poll to see if anything is happening “under the hood.”
The internals for this poll have been very puzzling. I don’t know what to make of them.
Common now, even the brain dead have feelings!
“How in hell can anyone be undecided at this point outside the brain dead?.....”
Seriously. I read over the weekend that the undecideds left are more conservative indies that normally break republican, that if they have not jumped in on O yet, likely will not...
Undecideds are going to break huge for McCain that’s a given. ANyone who hasn’t been sold on Fauxbama after 18 months and 300 Million isn’t going to be in the next few days.
Fauxbama can’t close the deal, like always.
Fine. So Dayton Daily News, McCain up 2. Mason-Dixon, McCain up 1. There is only one poll (Ras) that has had Obama up in OH. Not sure what’s been posted today, but if it’s oversampling Dems by 15%, it’s BS.
Internals are now available.
Although the overall results aer the same, there appear to be some differences. For example, Obama is now up 7-points in the Midwest, and McCain has padded his lead in the South, etc.
Overall, the internals for yesterday look better IMHO.
Thoughts?
“Although the overall results are the same, there appear to be some differences. For example, Obama is now up 7-points in the Midwest, and McCain has padded his lead in the South, etc.”
Boy, when you review that side by side chart you linked to (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/docs/2008-IBD-TIPP-DAY8.htm), these internals are positively whacky. For example, what the heck happened on Oct. 15 to cause such a massive “shift” of the yoots vote to McCain? You can see a similar bizarre shift in the other direction on the same day in the 45-64 age group (a group that I think will ultimately favor McCain, although maybe by a small margin).
For me, the key numbers remain the white voters. Obama continues to poll around 39%, which is below Kerry’s 41%. He simply hasn’t made the sale with white voters. And there are lots of undecided voters, who — when you compare these numbers to the 2004 exit poll data — were mostly Bush voters in 2004 (Bush won the white vote 58-41). And then when you go down to the party ID numbers and see that McCain is pulling only 83% among Republicans in this poll, you can reasonably infer that a big chunk of the undecided white voters are Republicans. They aren’t already in Kerry’s camp: at 8%, Obama is only polling two points better with Republicans than Kerry did.
The other weird number is conservatives. This poll claims that 24% of conservatives support Obama. I don’t buy it for a nanosecond, except that it suggests that the GOP base wants McCain/Palin to throw them a bit more red meat than the slim pickins’ that they have been getting.
What I continue to see here is the elements of a late movement to McCain among white voters — especially white, conservative, Republican voters. We may not see this movement until next week or even in the final weekend before the election — again think 2000 in reverse. But there are easily enough votes here for McCain to win the election by about 2-3 points, maybe more.
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