Posted on 10/21/2008 7:29:32 AM PDT by SmithL
The Left's Big Blunder (Why the Polls Inflate Obama's Support)
John Zogby. "But I think we are in a post-Bradley-effect America. We have honorable bigots. They say they won't vote for him, and then they don't vote for him."Oh yeah. Look back at the NH Rat Primary. Barry had a 10% lead in the polls. He LOST to 'the white guys' (Hillary and Edwards) 52% to 38%.
Barry even mentioned the NH Primary yesterday. He KNOWS that the all tolerant white lib dems AIN'T so tolerant after all. Annnnnnnnnd will lie to pollsters.
The Bradley-Wilder effect lives in the hearts of bigoted Democrats.
there is a big big misunderstanding a about what the Bradley effect...or soon to be labeled the Obama effect really is:
its not about lying due to racism..its about lying to a pollster or union boss to NOT appear racist. A great quote i heard on here this weekend is how many of us freepers would stand up in a movie theater and scream “i am voting for McCain!!!”
living in the heart of Chicago i know i sure wouldn't.
That's probably much closer to the truth, since the MSM haven't exactly been forthright in their coverage of this candidate. In less than six weeks, we've gotten to know more about Sarah Palin than we have about 0bama in nearly 20 months.
Now that's downright scary.
But why were the polls so far off for Ken Blackwell here in Ohio? I thought it was the same thing...
I know this is a bit off topic, but I wonder why no one has really addressed the reason there are far more new Democrat voter registrants than Republican.
I would suggest that was because of “Operation Chaos” initiated by Rush Limbaugh. Republicans crossing over to vote in the Democrat primaries are still registered as Democrats, but will vote for McCain.
There is no doubt in my mind that racism will decide this election. Will black people support Obama in the 80% or greater range. If so that is a well coordinated racist attack against the white guy.
1) You have a mayoral vote in a city that has a population 8 to 1 Democrat to Republican. Therefore there are no rural Republican counties to factor into this ratio, unlike Bradley.
2) The polls ranged from an 8 to 20 point lead for Dinkins on the day of the election.
3) Dinkins defeated the popular Ed Koch in the Dem primary, therefore it should have been a foregone conclusion that he would win handily in the general election by 10 or more points, given the ratio of Dems to Reps.
Reps outnumbering Dems 8 to 1, Dinkins defeating Koch in the primary, polls stating that Dinkins would win so handily, etc. So what happened, given this "perfect" scenario? Dinkins won by a mere 2 points.
If Dinkins would have lost, then there would have been a lot more made of this, but since he won, not a lot of fuss was made about the final projections.
It just hit me...there’s even one more spin that can apply.
They can have many black American’s say they support and will vote for the black candidate, but then they actually don’t go to the poll and vote.
What about the clinton-dole effect? They were predicting Clinton by 20% or more. But the win was in single digits.
Clinton was the first black president—”doncha know”.
Seriously though I think it’s just polls are wrong. In fact, polls that show a huge lead will often surpress the voters on the winning side even more because they don’t feel the need to vote for a foregone conclusion.
You have hit the nail on the head. Look, I know lots of black people. There was many a night I drove into the hood to take employees home. We would have real talks about stuff. Young black people are NOT going to turn out in the numbers the Dems would like to see. There are MILLIONS of people in this country who simply WON’T vote for the black guy. Millions more who are afraid he’s a muslim. Millions more who want the SAFE option, which is the guy with an actual record, McCain. Fraud is the only way we lose.
Just as ugly as the other type of racism - but more acceptable to guilty white men and breathless white women.
Should be
“Dems outnumbering Reps 8 to 1”.
They sure are worried about the Bradley effect ain’t they?
Well they should be.
But racism is not why they should be worried.
Decades of liberals using FEAR and jamming down the average Joes throat political correctness, to choose the black man because that is he ONLY way you can PROVE your not a racist white boys and girls!
They are not racists. They just know they had better say “Obama” to pollsters or be labeled a devil.
I don’t vote for socialists, black, white, grey, or green. If the San Franfreako Chronicle thinks that makes me racist, I don’t give a rat’s arse.
hello!.. are they saying pollsters can tell that white people aren't lying to them? how?
Hildy—There is no doubt that most Americans today are color blind—especially if the people of color consider themselves Americans first and Afro-Americans second.
Yes, there are dem and pubbie bigots. I say they are bigots because I think implying they are racists also implies they would—if provoked sufficiently—resort to violence to “keep them in their place”. I do not think that is the case.
IMO a large number of dems are biased. For purposes of this election biased pubbies don’t enter into the “Bradley Effect” equation because they would not be voting for The Messiah anyway. But biased dems will be a factor when they actually go into the voting booth to pull that lever.
So, I think there will be a “Bradley Effect”. The question is to what extent it will come into play. IMO, The Marxist Onada must keep all his registered dem votes to even have a chance of winning. But how realistic is that? You have Hillery women now voting for McCain, you have Nader out there siphoning off critical votes, you have Joe the Plumber and Diane Fanning siphoning off blue collar votes and then you have the Bradley Effect. Perhaps I should also add the cascade of Biden’s gaffs to the list of negatives with which the Marxist Onada must contend.
So, despite the rosy picture the MSM attempts to portray, The Marxist Onada has problems. On the other hand, McCain captured the conservative vote with his selection of Gov. Palin. Those of us conservatives who think straight will vote his ticket because for the first time in memory a genuine conservative is in line for the presidency.
This doesn't make sense. I thought the Bradley effect was people lying about their real support for a candidate, not people telling the truth about why they don't support a candidate.
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