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US intelligence: Iran will be able to build first nuclear bomb by February 2009
debka.com ^ | 10/21/08 | Debka

Posted on 10/21/2008 11:38:08 AM PDT by Vermont Lt

US intelligence’s amended estimate, that Iran will be ready to build its first bomb just one month after the next US president is sworn in, is disclosed by DEBKAfile’s Washington sources as having been relayed as a guideline to the Middle East teams of both presidential candidates, Senators John McCain and Barack Obama. The information prompted the assertion by Democratic vice presidential nominee Joseph Biden in Seattle Sunday, Oct. 19: “It will not be six months before the world tests Barack Obama like they did John Kennedy.” Israel has (nearly) run out of time.


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: debka; iran
I know, I know. But its worth a thought.
1 posted on 10/21/2008 11:38:08 AM PDT by Vermont Lt
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To: Vermont Lt

Don’t worry, they will blame Bush if anything happens.


2 posted on 10/21/2008 11:41:39 AM PDT by LibFreeUSA
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To: Vermont Lt

This needs to be in ads, especially by 527s. This goes back to the 2am phone call.


3 posted on 10/21/2008 11:42:14 AM PDT by Beeman
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To: Vermont Lt

Another reason why we need McCain.


4 posted on 10/21/2008 11:42:27 AM PDT by chippewaman
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To: Vermont Lt

I wonder if THIS is what Biden was referring to? The campaigns just received security briefings last week or so. Perhaps Joe was talking up a Iranian nuclear weapons facility attack by US forces instead of Isreal?.............


5 posted on 10/21/2008 11:42:50 AM PDT by Red Badger (My wallet is made out of depleted you-owe-mium........)
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To: Vermont Lt

Remember when John Kerry said in 2004 they were 10-15 years away from this?


6 posted on 10/21/2008 11:43:28 AM PDT by realcleanguy ("I have not yet begun to fight")
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To: Vermont Lt

Now we know where Biden gets his news.


7 posted on 10/21/2008 11:43:33 AM PDT by SwankyC (Paris Hilton 08 - I'm voting for 2 small boobies instead of 2 huge boobs)
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To: realcleanguy

My how time flies....


8 posted on 10/21/2008 11:44:06 AM PDT by brytlea (Obama--Keep the change!)
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To: Vermont Lt

Yep, that would definitely fall into that six month window that Biden mentioned.


9 posted on 10/21/2008 11:44:29 AM PDT by ChocChipCookie (Homeschool like your kids' lives depend on it.)
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To: Vermont Lt

Is this the crisis that Joe “the Dumber” was talking about?


10 posted on 10/21/2008 11:45:32 AM PDT by syriacus (The MSM has questioned Obama for 2 years. It took a plumber to get Obama to admit he's a socialist.)
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To: Vermont Lt
Impossible. Only one year ago the National Intelligence Estimate reported:

We judge with high confidence that in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program.

11 posted on 10/21/2008 11:49:47 AM PDT by Yo-Yo
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To: Red Badger

He just couldn’t hold it in.


12 posted on 10/21/2008 11:53:03 AM PDT by AmericanVictory (Should we be more like them, or they like us?)
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To: All

Yawn. Now talking about Joe the Plumbers unpaid taxes, that’s NEWS.


13 posted on 10/21/2008 11:54:11 AM PDT by guido911 (Islamic terrorists are members of the "ROP", the "religion of pu*&ies")
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To: LibFreeUSA
ISRAEL WILL BOMB BY DECEMBER 1, 2008


Photobucket - Video and Image Hosting

Photobucket - Video and Image Hosting


14 posted on 10/21/2008 11:54:12 AM PDT by ncfool (Obama stands for The New United Socialist Sta'te or "TNUSSA")
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To: AmericanVictory

Leaked out through his mouth.............


15 posted on 10/21/2008 11:54:21 AM PDT by Red Badger (My wallet is made out of depleted you-owe-mium........)
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To: Vermont Lt
"Sleep tight this evening, America. I will make sure the Iranians listen to me!

If they don't, then I will call them on the phone and write them letters of disapproval!"


16 posted on 10/21/2008 11:58:26 AM PDT by Prole (Please pray for the families of Chris and Channon. May God always watch over them.)
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To: Vermont Lt

I’m of the opinion Israel strikes after the election but before January. They don’t want to roil the world oil markets leading up to the election, but if pressed by some new development they would strike before 11/4. They don’t have the luxury of being able to put this off much longer and they do not want to deal with zero.


17 posted on 10/21/2008 11:59:08 AM PDT by bereanway (Sarah get your gun)
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To: Vermont Lt

So much for the fish-wrap National Intelligence Estimate!

Bush might as well go after Iran now, his “legacy” is already completely trashed. At least he would take the heat rather than the next President.


18 posted on 10/21/2008 12:05:13 PM PDT by PreciousLiberty
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To: Vermont Lt
Biden is wrong. Barack won't be tested by an international crisis in his first 6 months.

Israel will not wait - If Barack is elected, Israel will attack Iran while Bush is still President. They will not wait and trust Obama to throw US support behind Israel.

Then Barack will inherit another war to manage....beside Iraq and Afghanistan.

19 posted on 10/21/2008 12:07:51 PM PDT by HardStarboard ("The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule - Mencken knew Obama)
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To: bereanway

I’ll generally agree. Whatever they do (wink wink nudge nudge) they’ll need Bush around as long as possible to facilitate them, which will take a few weeks to sort out, so they must start it very soon. The task must be completed before O takes over.

I’ll also suggest they will do something big before 11/4. A major Middle East conflict will sway voters toward McCain, who they need to assure continuing support post-1/20. Since shallow predictions are popular, I’ll suggest Israel goes after Iran this very week.


20 posted on 10/21/2008 12:07:57 PM PDT by ctdonath2 (I AM JOE THE PLUMBER!)
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To: PreciousLiberty
>>>... his “legacy” is already completely trashed.<<<

Only if you buy the MSM's trash! I don't.

21 posted on 10/21/2008 12:10:00 PM PDT by HardStarboard ("The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule - Mencken knew Obama)
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To: ChocChipCookie

One thing’s for sure — certain places, such as San Francisco) have nothing to fear. That’s the last place on earth that will get nuked by our enemies.


22 posted on 10/21/2008 12:10:20 PM PDT by BenLurkin
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To: Red Badger
Here's the way I see this. Back about 6 months ago various intelligence agencies were giving their assessement of when Iran would be able to produce a nuclear device. The times were all over the place but I noted that the Israelis were saying 9 months. Now I figure they probably have the best and most capable intelligence gathering effort in the Middle East and, more to the point, have the most at stake in getting it right. So my money is on the Israelis. If Israel is true to their word then they will indeed act to take out Iran's uranium enrichment facilities. But they can't do it by themselves. They need the U.S. Navy to secure the shipping lanes and provide some additional intelligence services. My guess is that Israelis are waiting to see who wins the election. If the Zero wins I predict that the strike will come while Bush is still in office. He is more than likely to support Israel and therefore commit U.S. forces. The incoming Zero would basically have no other option but to continue to support Israel or risk appearing to be the limp-wrist that everyone has said he is. If on the other hand McCain wins there might still be time, barely, to avoid a very, very ugly situation. I think McCain would make it clear that the U.S. will fully support Israel and that if Iran chooses to continue to develop a nuclear device they will pay a price militarily and economically. It might be enough to get both sides to moderate their position while further attempts are made to gather enough support from the rest of the world to put the economic squeeze on Iran. Frankly this is 1937 all over again. We and the world desperately need someone with some serious 'nads if we're going to head off a repeat of history here. And we're not going to get it with Zero. Much as I find fault with John McCain, he's the guy we want right now.
23 posted on 10/21/2008 12:19:32 PM PDT by technically right
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To: technically right

Election of Obama will be a disaster for Israel...........


24 posted on 10/21/2008 12:28:39 PM PDT by Red Badger (My wallet is made out of depleted you-owe-mium........)
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To: Vermont Lt

Where ever they aim it, I doubt it will make it past their own border.


25 posted on 10/21/2008 12:31:24 PM PDT by capn dino (socialism is communism lite)
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To: Red Badger

Agreed. And what I find most frustrating is why Obama apparently still has the majority of the Jewish vote.

I have no doubt that if Iran gets a nuclear device they will use it. Of course they will use their Palestinian surrogates so that their finger prints can’t be found. And in the process many Palestinians will die but after all they will have died eliminating the infidels. An equitable sacrifice especially in view of the fact that no one in the Middle East has ever really cared about the Palestinians.

Many believe this is unthinkable but history is replete with examples of such myopia.


26 posted on 10/21/2008 12:38:14 PM PDT by technically right
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To: realcleanguy
Remember when John Kerry said in 2004 they were 10-15 years away from this?

He also said it would take that long to get oil flowing from our coasts.

He's a tool, just the way the missus likes it.

27 posted on 10/21/2008 12:40:46 PM PDT by AFreeBird
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To: technically right
...what I find most frustrating is why Obama apparently still has the majority of the Jewish vote.

Easy. They believe that no matter what party gets elected to the White House, Israel is going to be safe. So, since Israel is going to be protected no matter what, they feel comfortable in voting for the Democrat liberal as they always have since the beginning. The have never seen in their lifetimes Israel in sufficient danger to shake their liberalism to the ground. They do not believe Ahmadinjihad is any threat whatsoever. As for the "Palestinians" (no such people or ethnic group has ever existed) they are no more than cannon fodder and fuel for the anti-Israel rantings of the Middle Eastern Islamic thugocrats..............

28 posted on 10/21/2008 12:46:54 PM PDT by Red Badger (My wallet is made out of depleted you-owe-mium........)
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To: BenLurkin
One thing’s for sure — certain places, such as San Francisco) have nothing to fear. That’s the last place on earth that will get nuked by our enemies.

A lot of our enemies don't like fags. SF is very decadent in that regard. Also, the Golden Gate is an American icon, just as the World Trade Towers were. And there are Naval installations there.

29 posted on 10/21/2008 12:47:41 PM PDT by AFreeBird
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To: Yo-Yo

I’d guess the nukes are as real as the iraq WMDs.
http://mist.xvand.com/humor/weapons.html


30 posted on 10/21/2008 1:27:06 PM PDT by buzzer
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To: Red Badger

Your observation is well taken and history would tend to support it. And of course if some American Jews are predisposed to take this view they are welcome to it but they do so at Israel’s grave peril. What makes this moment in time so much different than in the past is the spectre of a nuclear Iran. In the past Israel was the only possessor of nuclear weapons in the region and their implied threat to use them, along with the usually reliable (Jimmuh Carter nothwithstanding) support of the U.S. was enough to keep their enemies at bay. But once Iran actually demonstrates that they have a workable nuclear device all bets are off. And that will be almost assured if Obama gets elected. Given this real possibility I simply cannot fathom why more American Jews can’t see the real danger here. Once the bomb goes off it’s too late to change your vote.


31 posted on 10/21/2008 1:28:30 PM PDT by technically right
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To: technically right

If Iran finally gets the atomic bomb they so desperately seek, delivering it is a whole new set of problems. A missile of some sort is difficult to both guide and control to it’s intended target, but lets say that they accomplish the goal some way or another and actually hit Tel Aviv (Jerusalem is off limits for obvious reasons). What would the West do in retaliation? What would Israel do? Obama would be put into a scenario where he is required to act and can’t. His political side would be to do nothing and “condemn the attack in the strongest terms” and the American people would be outraged if he did nothing. The UN would be locked up with Russia and China holding veto power of any attack on Iran. Any retaliation on Iran would have to be unilateral, maybe with Great Britain, and would be anathema to Obama’s personal policy of appeasement at all costs. He would be vilified by his own party if he did and vilified by the rest of the country if he didn’t..........


32 posted on 10/21/2008 1:41:42 PM PDT by Red Badger (My wallet is made out of depleted you-owe-mium........)
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To: AFreeBird

Yep


33 posted on 10/21/2008 3:14:20 PM PDT by realcleanguy ("I have not yet begun to fight")
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To: Vermont Lt

It’s the delivery date I want to know about.


34 posted on 10/21/2008 3:18:48 PM PDT by Doomonyou (Let them eat lead.)
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