Skip to comments.Lies, #@%*$# Lies, and Opinion Polls - - What Do The Polls Mean, If Anything?
Posted on 10/22/2008 2:10:31 PM PDT by jay1949
Our expert pollsters have determined, with all of the accuracy and impartiality that modern statistical science and polling techniques can muster, that (1) the Presidential race is tightening while (2) Obama is pulling away and (3) the Presidential race remains remarkably stable. Say what??? Well, keep in mind that American novelist Samuel Clemens (a/k/a Mark Twain) wrote, There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics. Presidential preference polls are, for better or worse, a form of statistics.
(Excerpt) Read more at theamericansentinel.com ...
Further on this subject, you might be interested in a blog on American Thinker- http://www.americanthinker.com/2008/10/media_polls_pimping_for_obama.html
If “registered voter” numbers are so inaccurate,
why use these numbers to assign Dem/GOP weight factors?
The only poll that matters is the one in November.
Look, if the pollsters are right and McCain loses, we have all been delusional. But if the pollsters are wrong and McCain wins, the pollsters are frauds, and deserve to be prosecuted for fraud.
Thanks for the link - - good article
Partisan preference weighting is not based on voter registrations. In the case of Rasmussen, they take polls in which respondents are asked which party they belong to and (if none) which party they lean toward. In Virginia, where I live, and in a few other states, voters do not register by party, so if Rasmussen or whoever used Virginia’s official voter registration stats, we’d all be “other.” So the pollsters use self-reporting and Rasmussen (and probably some others) takes partisan preference polls separately from presidential preference polls, in order to ensure a more accurate result.
lol I have paraphrased Twain’s line here a few times, there’s lies, there’s damned lies and there’s statistics, then there’s polls.